Havenât we been here before? Didnât Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio gather his defense together and chew them out in a non-official capacity before the Super Bowl parade last year with regards to taking their foot off the pedal in the Super Bowl?
Now letâs be clear. Thatâs not what happened in Sundayâs 13-12 win over the Bills. The defense was spectacular, the offense was not. At least not in the second half. In the first half the Eagles came out firing and put up 13 points and 174 of total offense and the numbers could have been higher had it not been for some seriously horrific officiating.
Then came the second half which leads me back to my earlier question. Havenât we seen this before? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are proud owners this year of three of the worst halves of football this galaxy has ever seen. Letâs review shall we?
Jalen Hurts’ Halve-Nots
                           Comp/att   Net pass yds.   Result
Game 3: 1st half vs Rams        4/8          -1       W, 3-26
Game 4:  2nd half @ Bucs       0/8         -18       W, 31-25
Game 16: 2nd half @ Bills        0-7          -2       W, 13-12
Since the only goal each week is to win it certainly says something about how well the current team is constructed to be able to win games like this with regularity.
The Question in Question
But hereâs the only question that needs to be asked about this team going forward in light of what transpired in Orchard Park Sunday:
Is it sustainable? In other words, can this team win another Super Bowl with an elite defense but with an offense that oftentimes is as inept as power windows on a submarine?
This Eagles team has given up leads in four of their five losses this season. They blew a 14 point 4th quarter lead to the Broncos at home, a 21 point lead to the Cowboys in Dallas, a four point lead to the Giants in early October and a three point lead to the Chargers in the last minute only to go on to lose in overtime. The Birds never led in the Bears Black Friday debacle.
This year it seems to be the offense that takes their foot off the pedal with big leads whereas last year the offense, even if not prolifically efficient, could at least close out games by playing keep away.
This yearâs offense is the antithesis of last yearâs. Against the Steelers last December the Birds closed out a 27-13 victory with a 21 play, 88 yard drive that chewed up the last 10:29 of the fourth quarter. This yearâs team leads the league in three-and-outs. Big difference when your defense is constantly on the field and constantly being asked to be elite.
The Good News
Hereâs the good news though. Right now the Eagles have the #3 ranked scoring defense in the league yielding just 18.8 points per game. They trail only the Seattle Seahawks, #2 (18.1) and the Houston Texans, #1 (16.6). The next closest scoring defense of the other five NFC playoff teams belongs to the Rams at #8 (20.4). But L.A. is taking on water right now, losing back-to-back games to Seattle and Atlanta. In their last three games the Rams have given up 33 points per game. The Eagles have given up just 10 over their last three contests going 3-0 in that stretch.
The next closest NFC playoff team to the Rams in scoring defense is Green Bay at #11 (21.5). But the Packâs defense has unraveled down the stretch giving up 32.3 points per game in their last three, going 1-2 in those games.
Next up are the 49ers at #13 (22.4), and while Brock Purdy and that San Francisco offense is humming right now, they canât escape the fact that their defense has given up 29.7 points per game in their last three games, yet still managing to win all three.
The Chicago Bears, despite an amazing turnaround from last season have the 22nd ranked scoring defense right now, giving up 24.8 points per game, but they do lead the planet in turnover ratio with an astounding +22 and are playing more soundly of late yielding 20.3 points per game, and winners of two of the last three games.
The other two teams vying for the last spot in the NFC post-season dance are the Carolina Panthers and the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Panthers are ranked 16th (22.8) and have given up 22.3 points per game going 1-2 over that span while the Bucs are 23rd (24.8), yielding 24 points per game over their last three, all ending in defeat.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
The scoreboard never lies and neither do the numbers. They are very favorable to Philly as the post-season approaches. Their defense is peaking at just the right time and their closest NFC comp is a Seattle team led by a quarterback whose never won a playoff game and is #3 in the league in interceptions currently with a whopping 14.
The Birds defense is just as stalwart as Seattleâs according to the numbers and Philly has a quarterback who plays his best when the stage is biggest and the lights are brightest and almost always bounces back from a miserable performance with a stellar response. Heâs taken his team to two of the last three Super Bowls, winning one of them. Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford are the only other NFC quarterbacks in the upcoming post-season to play in a Super Bowl with Stafford being the only other quarterback among the six NFC finalists to win one.Â
Eagles to Capture the #2 Seed
I like the Eagles to jump the Bears and capture the #2 seed next Sunday. That would ensure the Birds two home games before the NFC title game with a very good chance that the incumbent #1 seed gets knocked off, setting the stage for the Eagles to host the NFC title game for the second year in a row. Â
Defense still wins championships and so does good quarterback play. The 49ers are giving up almost 30 points per game down the stretch while the Seahawks have yielded 21 points per game over the same stretch. The Eagles have given up 10 in a three game winning streak, nine points less than the Houston Texans who boast the top defense in the league.
One More Question and One More Key
Factoring that into the equation just ask yourself this:Â Among the two teams vying for the top seed in the NFC, San Francisco and Seattle, whose quarterback would you trust more in a winner-take-all game?
- Brock Purdy
       2. Sam Darnold
3. Jalen Hurts
Now letâs talk about the other key to winning championships. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. It is the main reason the Bears have won 11 games so far. The Eagles are tied for 6th in the league with Tampa Bay in turnover ratio with a +5.
The Rams are ranked #5 with a +9. The Packers are tied for #15 with a +/- of 0. Seattle is ranked #23 with a -4. The 49ers are three spots behind the Seahawks at #26 with a -5. The Panthers havenât punched their post-season ticket yet but are tied for #15 with the Packers and Cardinals at +/- 0.
You can draw your own conclusions but the numbers donât lie nor do they get emotional like a frustrated fan base does. Â
Birds Have Found Their Identity
The 2024 Eagles championship formula was âsix if by groundâ. That was their identity and they leaned on it. This yearâs identity is their defense and theyâll need to lean on it to have any chance of sniffing a repeat performance.
Since the Bears and Birds kickoff their games at the same time next Sunday, by design, Philly will not have the luxury of sitting their starters for the season finale like they did last year against the Giants. Fortunately they are pretty healthy and getting healthier but there is a reason the top seed is so coveted. At this time of year rest is as important, if not more, than any other element to your teamâs playoff success. The Eagles wonât be afforded that luxury this year but finding ways to win is this teamâs super power and among all of the other flawed NFC teams in the Super Bowl mix, Iâd give the Birds as good a chance as any to represent the conference in Super Bowl 60.Â
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Upon Further Review All Signs Point to Eagles Representing NFC in Super Bowl 60 appeared first on Heavy Sports.