The Indianapolis Colts are entering 2025 with some optimism, but USA Today’s Nate Davis isn’t buying it. In his latest NFL record projections, Davis slotted the Colts at 4-13, one of the worst marks in the league. The projection points to two major roadblocks: a quarterback situation still in flux and a schedule that offers no breaks.
The Case Against the Colts
GettyWho will start at QB Week 1 for the Colts?
Davis’ skepticism starts at the most important position in football: quarterback. For all the pieces the Colts have built around their offense, the reality is that this team still doesn’t have a proven starter under center.
Since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement six years ago, Indianapolis has cycled through stopgaps and short term answers, never truly finding a long term solution. That kind of instability makes it hard to build offensive rhythm from week to week, and Davis isn’t convinced 2025 will be any different.
“Even if they were settled behind center – which Indy most certainly is not –” Davis says, “a schedule loaded with the entirety of the AFC and NFC West was going to present a serious challenge for a team that’s generally hovered around .500 since QB Andrew Luck retired six years ago.” His point is clear: without a legitimate QB1, the Colts could find themselves fighting uphill in every game, regardless of who’s on the other sideline.
While Davis frames the schedule as a looming nightmare, the numbers offer a softer outlook. ESPN ranks the Colts 2025 strength of schedule at just 25th in the NFL, with their opponents posting a combined .464 winning percentage last season (134-155). That’s far from the murderers’ row it might seem at first glance.
Yes, Indianapolis will face both the AFC West and NFC West, and yes, seven of their opponents were playoff squads in 2024. But across the season, Indy’s slate also features several rebuilding teams and rosters with major question marks of their own. It may not be a cakewalk, but it’s not the relentless, week after week test that Davis’ assessment suggests.
Why This Team Might Prove Davis Wrong
GettyThe Colts success comes down to one thing: QB growth.
While USA Today’s 4-13 call is attention grabbing, there’s evidence to suggest it undersells the Colts’ potential. Despite inconsistent quarterback play over the past two seasons, Indianapolis has managed to be a .500 team. Running back Jonathan Taylor was one of the league’s most productive backs last year, and the Colts became the only NFL team in 2024 with three receivers topping 800 yards.
The roster has also seen notable upgrades. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren joins an already stout offensive line, while GM Chris Ballard aggressively rebuilt the secondary with the additions of Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s aggressive, disguise-heavy scheme could help the defense take a leap, creating more turnovers and shortening the field for the offense.
Davis’ projection has sparked debate among Colts fans, and rightfully so. While the path to nine or ten wins (and playoff contention) hinges almost entirely on quarterback performance, this is far from a roster devoid of talent. The Colts’ recent track record shows they can compete even when things aren’t perfect under center.
If they find stability at quarterback and capitalize on their offensive weapons and revamped defense, Davis’ prediction could look overly pessimistic come December. For now, Indianapolis has been put on notice, and that might be exactly the kind of fuel this team needs.
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