Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is among the most reliable head coaches in the league when it comes to clinching games in his favor — but those situations may be hard to come by with J.J. McCarthy in his first year as a starter.
On Wednesday, November 5, made the following announcement on social media: “Since Kevin O’Connell’s first season as Minnesota’s Head Coach in 2022, the Vikings are 33-4 (.892) when they tie or win the turnover battle. O’Connell is tied with Kansas City’s Andy Reid for the highest winning percentage among head coaches when doing so since 2022.”
This stat illustrates that O’Connell rarely fumbles the game away when his team takes care of the ball. However, the other side of the turnover battle is a harsh reality for the Vikings.
Reid has the luxury of Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and is 15-12 when he loses the turnover battle since 2022. Meanwhile, O’Connell is 4-18 when losing the turnover battle.
The Vikings cannot afford to lose that battle, but it will prove difficult for several reasons: McCarthy is in his first year as a starter and has struggled protecting the ball, and the Vikings defense is not backstopping the turnover battle like it has in the past.
Vikings Must Find Balance With JJ McCarthy
In fairness, the Vikings have tied the turnover battle in two of McCarthy’s three starts. But the other game, Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons, saw the Vikings commit four turnovers in an abysmal 22-6 loss to Atlanta.
McCarthy threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in that game. While he looked poised in his Week 9 win over the Detroit Lions, McCarthy is still a young signal caller and is bound to have ups and downs in his first year as a starter.
However, there is not much room for losing anymore turnover battles this season with the Vikings at 4-4 and at the bottom of a competitive NFC North division. After leading the league in takeaways last season, Brian Flores’ defense ranks 14th currently. Overall, the Vikings rank 26th in turnover ratio.
There’s a growing trend in the NFL that leaning on great quarterback play can overcome turnovers. Rather than managing a game and playing small ball, the teams that have sluggers at the quarterback position who can produce enough upside per play tend to go further.
McCarthy could ascend to those heights, but at this stage in McCarthy’s career, O’Connell is concerned with cultivating confidence by taking things slow.
“I just think it’s about doing things that he’s comfortable doing right now,” O’Connell said on November 5. “I think we’re we’re going to try to do the things we think gives our offense a chance, but all that goes through a scope of what J.J. does well.”
O’Connell is respecting McCarthy’s development by dialing back the offense, but as the pressure continues to mount late in the season, the young quarterback will have to be thrown in the deep end eventually.
What Are the Vikings’ Chances of Making the Playoffs?
Entering a Week 9 matchup against the defending division champion Detroit Lions, the Vikings had just a 5% chance of making the postseason.
However, an impressive 27-24 upset over the Lions, led by McCarthy, catapulted the Vikings’ chances of making the playoffs to 20%, according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor.
The division will likely hinge on the final two games of the season against the Lions and Green Bay Packers — and by that time, McCarthy will truly be in midseason form.
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