It is crunch time in World Cup qualification with Scotland and Wales facing huge games on Tuesday night as both look to punch their ticket to next summer’s tournament.
The group stage of qualification comes to an end for European sides this evening, with nations hoping to qualify directly or at least make the play-offs in March.
Scotland still have the chance to avoid those nerve-shredding play-offs, as do Wales but their chances of topping their group are so distant they can be discounted.
And even after Saturday’s set of games, there is still plenty at stake and plenty of permutations for both Steve Clarke and Craig Bellamy’s teams as they gear up for their final games.
What Scotland need to do to qualify for the World Cup
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Steve Clarke’s side are guaranteed a top two finish in Group C, but can still avoid the play-offs and qualify directly.
Scotland suffered an untimely 3-2 defeat to Greece in Piraeus on Saturday night, but Denmark’s surprise draw with Belarus kept their hopes of automatic qualification alive.
The Scots now host the Danes in Glasgow on Tuesday, knowing that only a win will see them leapfrog their opponents and automatically qualify for the World Cup.
If not, it will be the play-offs for Clarke and his men.
Denmark, meanwhile, know that a win or a draw will be enough to book their place in North America, given they have a one-point advantage over Scotland.
What Wales need to do to qualify
Group J sees Belgium top on 15 points, while North Macedonia and Wales are level on points with 13.
A nervy 1-0 win for Bellamy’s side over Liechtensein on Saturday moved them level on points with North Macedonia, and set both sides up for a straight shootout on Tuesday.
Whoever wins in Cardiff on the night will take the runners-up spot in Group J and a place in the play-offs.
But Wales’ inferior goal difference compared with North Macedonia means a draw for Blagoja Milevski’s side will be enough for them to hold onto second spot.
Technically, Wales or North Macedonia could still qualify automatically ahead of Belgium, but that would require Roberto Martinez’s side to drop points at home against Liechtenstein in Liege.
And even if Belgium did draw, like they did against Kazakhstan at the weekend, their superior goal difference over both Wales and North Macedonia would likely still be enough.
Can Wales qualify through the Nations League?
Things get complex here. There are four places in the play-offs for teams that won their Nations League group, if they haven’t qualified through the qualifiers.
Wales are set to get one of those spots even if they don’t finish in the top two of their qualification group, but that is not ideal.
Go into the play-offs through the Nations League route and you will be a bottom seed and guaranteed an away semi-final, making it a far sterner test to reach the World Cup.
What happens in the play-offs?
The play-offs are held in March and have four spots available at the World Cup.
16 teams are involved in one-legged semi-finals, followed by four one-legged finals.
The top seeded teams play their semi-final at home. The finals are randomly selected as home or away.
The four Nations League qualifiers will be given an away semi-final, along with the four lowest-ranked qualifiers.
The standard of teams in the play-offs could range from Italy to Moldova.
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