WAR, what is it good for?
If you’re a Cubs starting pitcher, you probably think the answer is “absolutely nothin’,” because the stat — wins above replacement, for the uninitiated, a popular evaluation metric — doesn’t think much of Cubs starting pitching.
Coming into Monday, the group had the fourth-lowest fWAR in baseball, at 5.1. Expand the evaluation to the Cubs’ pitching staff as a whole, including the fan-maddening bullpen, and they had the worst fWAR in baseball, at 4.1.
Back to the starting pitching, exclusively, the case against the stat being the end-all, be-all descriptor of quality gets plenty of backing from the teams in the Cubs’ company: The three spots in front of them were occupied by other playoff contenders in the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Padres, with the Astros one spot below.
As you might imagine, there are plenty willing to take that side of the argument inside the Cubs’ clubhouse.
“If you want to refer to a WAR metric or something like that, that metric is flawed in a lot of ways when it comes to starting pitchers,” Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd said Monday. “There’s so many ways to take a starting pitcher and to describe what kind of output they have.
“I’ll take our guys any day. We’re going to compete. If those mattered so much, they wouldn’t let you go compete when the time came.”
It’s true, umps don’t stop pitchers for a pre-outing WAR check.
But you don’t need to be a faceless math equation to harbor concerns about what Cubs starters are capable of come the postseason.
Just a couple weeks ago, team president Jed Hoyer cited the need for greater consistency from that group, painting them as something of a question mark compared to the relative certainty of a position-player group that ranked Monday, by the same fWAR measure, as the sport’s top offensive and defensive team.
It’s hard to argue that the rotation has found that consistency, even though it’s not looking like a glaring weakness, either.
Boyd, for instance, is not finding the same level of success he did earlier in the summer. In his first seven starts after returning from the injured list in late June, he had a sparkling 1.93 ERA. In the eight starts since, he’s got a 5.18 ERA.
Righty Clay Holmes looked incredible for a stretch after arriving in a trade-deadline deal, Hoyer’s front office pushing in significant chips to bolster the rotation. Holmes gave up just one run across four outings, but in the two starts since, he allowed a career-worst eight runs to the Marlins and walked a season-high four batters against the Pirates, surrendering rare homers in both.
Righty Kevin Gausman, Hoyer’s other big deadline addition, has swung wildly between dominant performances and getting knocked around, that concern over inconsistency personified.
And while lefty Shota Imanaga has been mostly strong — especially lately, with three runs allowed in 12 innings over his last two outings — he’s cited a personal desire to “build back trust” after some poor starts. He still woke up Monday with more home runs allowed, 34, than any other pitcher in baseball.
These will be the pitchers the Cubs need to deliver in the playoffs if they’re going to accomplish the sky-high goals they’ve held all season.
Cubs starting pitchers might not look like much to the WAR-mongers. But they’re ready for that responsibility of the team’s October fate resting on their shoulders.
“This time of year and the playoffs, it’s exciting because you get to dictate it. It’s what you want, and as a starting group, we’re really excited about that,” Boyd said. “This is the time of the year that you dream about when you’re a starting pitcher. It’s the opportunity to lead your team to victory in important games, in meaningful games. We cherish that.
“You need a stable of starters in the playoffs. Teams that got there had that last year. Every year, they have that. There’s anomalies, but that’s the standard theme: Starting pitching gets you to where you want to go.
“These guys are awesome, and whenever our days [to take the ball] are, we’re excited to go forward and do what we can for this ballclub.”