The 2025 NBA Draft is done, and its summaries are all the way written. Many analysts and commentators expressed in theirs their bewilderment at the decisions made during Wednesday’s first round by the New Orleans Pelicans – and one in particular did not hold back.
Speaking on his namesake The Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill Simmons of The Ringer was most outspoken in his criticism. He referred to the mid-draft trade that the Pelicans made with the Atlanta Hawks – one in which they traded up to the thirteenth overall pick, whereupon they selected Deriq Queen out of Maryland – as “one of the dumbest trades of this decade”.
“This is when I lost my mind. I blacked out”, said Simmons. Considering that the title of the clipped video of Simmons’s comments is entitled “[a]re the Pelicans 2025’s Dumbest NBA Franchise?”, it is fair to say that no concessions were given.
“I was speechless. I just can’t believe it.”
Pelicans Taking Excessive Risk
The trade to which Simmons is referring in particular is one in which they have taken a huge risk. New Orleans gave the Hawks an unprotected 2026 first-round pick, in addition to their own 2025 selection at #23, just to move up ten spots to the Hawks’ #13 pick.
That pick can be either the Pelicans’ own selection, or that of the Milwaukee Bucks, as the Pelicans own the right to swap their 2026 first-round pick with Milwaukee’s as a result of the 2020 Jrue Holiday trade. Therefore, the Hawks will get whichever is the most favorable – and whichever it is, it will be completely unprotected.
An NBA team moving up to ensure that they can still get the player they covet, rather than hoping they fall in the draft, is normal enough. A mutual back scratch between the team who does not think their guy will fall, and the team fairly confident that he will, is common place.
Trading unprotected first-round picks, however, has become extremely rare in the modern era, due to the risk of substantial, franchise-altering favor. The Pelicans need only look at themselves in the 2024-25 season to see how real the risk of a lost season can be. Now, by trading one of two unprotected picks, they have to dodge that same bullet, twice.
Hawks Receive A Free Windfall
As an illustration of the excessive risk that the Pelicans took with this deal, consider that the Hawks got an unprotected first-round pick as an incentive to do something they were going to do anyway.
With the #23 pick received in the deal, the Hawks selected Asa Newell, a 6’11 teenager out of Georgia. The Hawks’ interest in Newell had been noted by leading draft website, NBADraft.net, who reported they had heard that they would draft him with the #13 pick.
As it turns out, Newell was indeed on the Hawks’ radar, yet they landed him at #23 instead. They were able to still get their man, yet save on some salary in the process, and get another pick for their troubles. The Pelicans, however, seem to have been consumed by a fit of urgency.
Clearly, the Pelicans thought Queen was the one they wanted. Joe Dumars, the new head of basketball operations for the Pelicans who made the deal, certainly defended his aggressiveness. Speaking to the press after the draft, he defended Queen as being worth the risk, saying that “when you identify a player that you think can be one of the foundations here, you go and get him“.
This is fine, in theory. Fortune favors the brave. And Queen is certainly confident of his success, doubting that anyone in his draft class is ever going to be better than him. If he puts forth much greater defensive effort as an NBA player than he ever did on the way up, maybe Queen will be right, as he certainly has a high ceiling.
Pelicans Will Need Luck Over Judgement
In an ideal Pelicans world, Queen does go on to be the player Dumars foresees him as being, and the trade is forgotten about. Just like a similarly risk move from the 2018 NBA Draft has been,
That year, the Philadelphia 76ers selected Mikal Bridges with the tenth overall pick, then traded down five spots with the Phoenix Suns and received an unprotected future first-round pick via the Miami Heat as incentive. However, no one remembers this trade, because in selecting Zhaire Smith with the 15th pick and getting (with respect) only Tre Mann with the ancillary pick (which became the #18 selection in 2021), Philadelphia got by far the worse end of the deal.
What could have been infamy for the Suns instead became one of the best trades they have made in a generation. However, to trust so much to luck for such a small move up in places speaks to undue risk. The Pelicans have done the same here, and while results ultimately matter more than process, they are also usually dependent on it.
To survive this trade, several things need to go right – to lose on it, only one needs to go wrong. It is certainly too early to evaluate the results, but it is never too early to identify faulty strategy.
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