For a team that’s made the playoffs in four of the past five NFL seasons, there sure seems to be a lot on the line for the Pittsburgh Steelers this year. Considering how short those runs were, however, it’s hard to fault the organization.
Despite qualifying for the postseason in the 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024 campaigns, Pittsburgh has nothing to show for it. All four years saw wild-card round exits. None of the outcomes were particularly close, either. This offseason marked a major attempt to change that, but will it succeed?
One prominent analytics expert isn’t buying it just yet. In a recent segment on NFL Network’s “Good Morning Football,” Cynthia Frelund assessed the Steelers’ postseason chances. Her projection indicates more of the same for Mike Tomlin’s crew.
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Frelund has Pittsburgh set to be right on the postseason bubble once it’s all said and done.
“You know, I see them just on the outside, maybe a bubble team,” Frelund said. “When I’m looking at their schedule and I’m kind of figuring things out, it is super ironic to me – I have 8.3 wins. We do this win total thing, people get mad about fractional, we get it. 8.3 wins, that means they are eighth or ninth. They’re kind of tied in that little spot, which means outside looking in.”
This certainly wouldn’t be unfamiliar territory. Back in 2021-22, a 9-7-1 Steelers team snuck into the NFL’s January game of musical chairs. Two seasons ago, a 10-7 record got them the final allotted AFC seed. Last season, the same record was tied with the Denver Broncos but Pittsburgh ultimately ranked sixth in the field. Winning eight, nine or even 10 games wouldn’t be anything brand new.
It would be a disappointment, though. The Steelers’ offseason acquisitions of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, wideout DK Metcalf, tight end Jonnu Smith and cornerback Jalen Ramsey weren’t made with a bubble type of season in mind. They were made with eyes on a late-January or even February playoff push.
Frelund’s analytics model would undoubtedly mark a letdown of a year, all things considered.
Frelund on Pittsburgh’s 2025-26 Schedule: ‘Couldn’t Have Written it Better’
Frelund believes the Steelers’ schedule should be a fun one to follow. Games against the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers, Rodgers’ former teams, stand out to her.
“When I’m looking at this one I’m saying, ‘Where are the games that could be pivotal?’” Frelund said. “You have to remember, the Steelers play the NFC North – ironic – and also the AFC East. Those are their rotational ones, including their division. Week 1 against the Jets, that’s an interesting one. Are these disparate pieces going to come together in time to beat the Jets? That could be a pivotal game come the end of the season, where that could be one of those difference-making games. And then October 26, that’s when they play the Packers, that could be another one.”
The second half of Pittsburgh’s 2025-26 slate might be even more interesting. Of the club’s final nine regular-season games, eight of them are against teams that should have legitimate playoff aspirations. Even the one projected bad team, the Cleveland Browns, is a divisional foe. Week 17’s meeting between the two sides could factor into AFC North tiebreakers and, in turn, have an impact on seeding.
For a franchise that’s settled into mediocrity as of late, that’s absolutely on the table once again. But even if Frelund’s prediction is accurate, those eight or nine wins wouldn’t arrive without high drama along the way.
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