The clock is rapidly running out on former Vice President Kamala Harris’ self-imposed deadline to issue a decision on her political future.
In the spring, Harris promised an “end of summer” decision on whether she would run for Governor of California next year, or whether she would stay out of that race in order to make another run at the White House in 2028.
Now, over halfway through the summer, Harris finds herself at a crossroads: take the – likely – easy win and become the state’s 41st Governor, or instead, commit to a grueling primary process with a spot in the general election hardly guaranteed.
To that end, new polling may push Harris to give the presidency another shot, but that does not necessarily mean she should.
Indeed, Echelon Insight’s July Omnibus poll shows that, among Democratic primary voters, Harris (26%) leads a 20-candidate field in an early 2028 presidential primary ballot test.
According to the poll, Harris leads her two biggest competitors – former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and California Governor Gavin Newsom – by 15 and 16 points, respectively.
Viewed strictly through this poll, it may seem that Harris has a considerable advantage and possibly an inside track to represent the Democratic Party again in three years.
And yet, it would behoove Harris and her camp to ignore this poll and instead declare her candidacy for the governorship.
Put another way, despite a seemingly encouraging lead, Harris’ position atop the field almost certainly reflects name recognition more than a genuine desire for her to run for president again.
Despite presenting respondents with more than 20 possible candidates, only the three mentioned above and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (6%) could be considered “household names” at the national level.
Moreover, the 2028 Democratic National Convention is roughly three years away. It is extremely difficult for voters to know now who they will prefer then, thus, they often default to the familiar face.
In the summer of 2005 – analogous to right now in the 2028 presidential cycle – Gallup released a poll among Democratic primary voters.
Hillary Clinton (40%) was dominating the field, trailed by John Kerry (16%) and John Edwards (15%). The eventual winner – former President Barack Obama – was not even considered a serious enough contender to be included in the poll.
All of this is to say that it is entirely possible that the Democrats’ eventual nominee is not even among the list of more than 20 candidates polled by Echelon Insights.
Underscoring the necessity for Harris to discount this poll is something I discussed in these pages earlier this month.
A separate 2028 poll from Emerson, reported Buttigieg (16%) leading Harris (13%).
At the time, I wrote that Emerson’s data points to a wide-open race for the party’s nomination, and Echelon’s poll showing Harris with a lead reinforces the conclusion that there is no established Democratic front runner, including Harris.
Finally, were Harris to read this poll as a desire for her candidacy in 2028, its highly likely that she will confront many – or all – of the same challenges that hobbled her 2024 candidacy.
Back on the national stage, voters would be reminded of Harris’ position in the previous Biden administration, which was deeply unpopular at its end.
One can easily imagine how awkward the primary would be when Harris was forced to defend the Biden administration – and her role in it – against competitors from her own party.
Throughout her campaign, Harris struggled to separate herself from former President Biden throughout her campaign, nor was she able to truly define a wholly new platform or agenda for a Harris presidency.
And, when Harris did take decisive stands on various policies, she was seen as either too far-left or inauthentic.
Taken together, it appears that Harris’ best bet for a continued political future would be to enter the race for California Governor.
She is almost certain to emerge from the state’s jungle primary either against a much lesser-known Democrat or a Republican, against both of whom Harris would be the clear favorite.
As Governor, Harris would be able to gain experience in an executive position, remain politically relevant, and build a platform if she chose to run in 2032, when she’d only be 67 years old.
In that same vein, with the Democratic Party as a whole facing its own crossroads in the wake of Zohran Mamdani’s primary win in New York City, Harris would be able to survey shifting political landscapes and decide what type of candidate she wants to be in 2032.
Further, despite California’s shift to the center on certain issues such as crime and homelessness, Harris’ more left-leaning platform would not be the same obstacle in California that it would be in a national election.
To be clear, Harris would have to be extremely careful not to replicate former President Richard Nixon, whose bid for California Governor was marred by suspicion that he was using California as a steppingstone back to Washington after his loss in the 1960 presidential election.
Ultimately, nobody – possibly even including Harris – knows what the former vice president will decide, and few could fault her for wanting a redo after the unprecedented circumstances that led to her presidential candidacy.
However, if Harris hopes to have another shot as a truly viable candidate, her best course of action is undoubtedly to try her hand at the job in Sacramento.
Viewed in that light, Harris’ advisors would best serve her by convincing her that Echelon’s poll is a flash in the pan, not a sign of genuine desire for her return to the presidential conversation.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.