Here’s some advice for families who haven’t finished back-to-school shopping: Don’t wait any longer. Prices are only going to go up.
Higher prices and lack of a variety of products because of tariffs are affecting back-to-school shoppers, said Patrick Penfield, a professor of supply chain practice at the Whitman School of Management at Syracuse University. Prices of computers, clothes, sneakers have increased anywhere from 10% to 30%, depending on where people shop and what they buy, Penfield said.
“Buy now, don’t wait, because prices are only going to go up. A lot of that is due to the tariffs,” Penfield said.
The National Retail Federation said about two-thirds of shoppers nationwide started snapping up notebooks, clothes and other supplies in July.
“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” Katherine Cullen, a vice president with the federation, said in a statement.
Denver parents were among those planning to get a jump-start on shopping, according to a survey by Deloitte Consumer Industry Center. A poll of 404 parents of school-age children found that 76% planned to start shopping in July, up from 70% in 2024.
Deloitte reported that 48% of the parents surveyed said they were concerned about school supplies costing more. And 72% of the parents said their households were in a similar or worse situation than a year ago, up from 64% in 2024, while 40% expect the economy to weaken in the next six months.
Deloitte’s survey found that Denver parents planned to spend an average of $784 on back-to-school items per child, an increase of $42 from 2024. The survey also found that 76% of the parents were willing to switch to more affordable brands and 66% said they would shop at more affordable retailers over preferred ones.
Penfield said shoppers will have better luck finding lower prices at the big-box stores — Walmart, Costco, Target — than smaller retailers.
“They have the volume so they can actually negotiate these tariffs with their suppliers,” Penfield. “They can ask suppliers to absorb some of that hit.”
However, even Walmart is feeling the squeeze. The mega retailer said in May that it would have to charge more for certain items because there was a limit to the increases they could bear.
Companies front-loaded inventory to try to stem the impacts of anticipated higher tariffs, Penfield said. “They’ve been trying to find different sources of supply. They’re trying to re-engineer some of the products they do bring in from high-tariff countries.”
But there’s only so much extra inventory people can bring in, Penfield said. “Eventually, you’re going to have to pay more or reduce the quality of products that you make.”
Many economists say much of the brunt of the taxes on imports will be borne by consumers. Economists said hiring has stalled and inflation is creeping up following the imposition of tariffs earlier this year and more levied last week on over 60 countries.
Penfield said parents are likely to take a big hit on the price of electronics for their children. “You’re looking at anywhere from a 20% to a 35% increase in computer prices, the reason being is we’re so reliant on Asia for many of the electronics that we purchase here in the U.S.”
The U.S. also imports a lot of its textiles, sneakers and clothes from Asian countries, including China. Penfield said prices for those items could be 10% more at the bigger retailers and up to 30% more at smaller stores.
China is subject to 10% baseline import tax and an extra 20% tariff related to the fight against the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. A pause on higher tariffs was due to expire Tuesday.
Another tariff not directly related to back-to-school supplies but one that could affect getting kids to class in time is the 50% tariff on Brazil. The New York Times reported that the U.S. gets 30% of its coffee from Brazil.
“You’re definitely going to see increases at Starbucks, at Dunkin (Donuts), at the grocery store,” Penfield said. “That’s a big one I’m concerned about, probably others are concerned about, especially when you’re trying to get your kids off to school.”
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