The Chicago Bears are gearing up for a very high-profile season in the Windy City and one that has new head coach Ben Johnson hopefully leading the team to one victory after another. The Bears’ first official day of training camp took place on July 23, so they’ve been in training for weeks now, and their offseason is also underway.
Johnson has been working with Chicago Bears franchise quarterback Caleb Williams, and the hope is that he’ll work some magic on the second year signal-caller. Johnson is an offensive-minded coach and worked wonders with Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, so he’s expected to take Williams to the next level.
But, not everyone thinks Johnson’s offense is a shoo-in. In a piece published on Wednesday, August 13, for ESPN, the publication’s staff looks at each NFL team and predicts the win-loss record and X factor for each team. It’s early to predict the entire season record, but they did their best based on ESPN’s research and numbers. So, let’s get into their prediction for the Chicago Bears.
Chicago Bears and the Team’s X Factor
GettyHead coach Ben Johnson of the Chicago Bears looks on during the third quarter of the NFL Preseason 2025 game.
In the piece, ESPN explains their methodology for determining the win-loss records and X factors for each team. “To look at the bigger picture and just how good — or bad — every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI),” they explain. “The FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Research team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations.”
For the Bears, the ceiling is 11-6, and the floor is 6-11. That’s fair. The X factor is Johnson’s offense. So, it’s less Johnson himself but more about whether the Bears’ offense will be able to execute what’s in Johnson’s head and his play calls.
“How quickly will the Bears be able to execute Johnson’s offense? Chicago went out and got the best play-caller available this offseason with the belief that some ingenuity and creativity can create one of the most explosive units in the NFL — a characterization not historically associated with Chicago offenses,” notes Courtney Cronin. “But how many games will it take for the offense to operate at a high-functioning level?”
It’s a good question. Cornin also looks back on Johnson’s time with the Bears, stating, “The Lions started out slow during Johnson’s first season calling plays in 2022, and Johnson said what he’s asking of his current players is more complex than what Detroit’s were tasked with early on. The key to success comes from Johnson creating opportunities for quarterback Caleb Williams to gain confidence in executing the scheme early on, even as he’s still aiming to master the details.”
Time will tell how quickly the Bears’ offense can make Johnson’s dreams come true.
More Win-Loss Projections for the Chicago Bears
Bleacher Report has their own thoughts on how many games Johnson and the Bars will win in the 2025-26 season. In a piece published following the draft, Moe Moton predicts a 10-7 record for the Bears. We’ll take it.
In the piece, Moton states that the “Bears have one of the league’s top offensive and defensive play-callers. Johnson and Allen will elevate an underachieving roster that played for an interim head coach for the final five weeks of the 2024 term.”
There’s a good chance the Bears will outplay their season last year, so those in Chicago can be excited for the future.
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