Del Mar’s summer racing season ends this weekend with a reminder that the horses will be back at the North San Diego County track in a big way very soon.
On Sunday, closing day, the $300,000, Grade I Del Mar Futurity offers some of California’s precocious 2-year-olds their first major stepping stone to the $2 million, Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on day 1 of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.
The Futurity is one of four races at Del Mar this week with implications for the Breeders’ Cup’s 2-year-old races, the others being Saturday’s $300,000, Grade I Del Mar Debutante for fillies and $100,000 Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Sunday’s $100,000, Grade III Del Mar Juvenile Turf.
The three-day racing week begins, appropriately, with another 2-year-old stakes, the $100,000 I’m Smokin on the 3 p.m. Friday card. It’s a sprint for California-breds, none of whom is likely to show up at the Breeders’ Cup, but looks like a good betting race with the John Sadler-trained gelding named Sammy Davis trying to stay undefeated in three starts. Trainer Doug O’Neill has three contenders in Saul Elliott, Thirsty Rebel and Pavlovian.
Call it a warmup for the Debutante and Futurity.
The Del Mar Debutante, at 7 furlongs, is likely to be won by a Bob Baffert-trained filly for the fifth time in seven years and 11th time in 31 years.
The field is led by the Baffert trio: Undefeated Sorrento Stakes winner Himika, a daughter of Curlin who cost $900,000 at auction in April; Explora, a $350,000 daughter of Blame who led all the way in her debut, and Bottle of Rouge, a gray daughter of Vino Rosso, who romped in her second start after chasing Himika her first time out. Juan Hernandez has ridden all three fillies but is on Explora this time and should try to lead all the way from the No. 1 post.
Speed figures give the three Baffert fillies a clear edge over the rest of the field that will line up this way, from the rail out, in the sixth race on Saturday’s 1:30 p.m. card: Explora, 8-5 morning-line odds; Himika (Kazushi Kimura riding), 2-1; Fourlynnes (Hector Berrios), 20-1; Grandma Mary (Ricardo Gonzalez), 8-1; Bottle of Rouge (Mike Smith), 5-1; La Wally (Antonio Fresu), 10-1, and Bourbon and Ginger (Mirco Demuro), 8-1.
Whoever wins the Del Mar Debutante probably will go on to be favored in the Oct. 4 Oak Leaf Stakes, Santa Anita’s prep for the $2 million, Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar on Oct. 31. Most of the recent Debutante winners have followed up by winning the Oak Leaf. The Oak Leaf, though, is overdue to produce a Juvenile Fillies winner. The last horses to come out of the Santa Anita race and win the Breeders’ Cup race were Songbird and Champagne Room in 2015 and 2016.
California has experienced no such drought in producing winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the race for colts and geldings that usually identifies the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby the following May. In the past 13 years – since the Derby qualifying points system began influencing 2- and 3-year-olds’ campaigns – seven eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners broke their maidens at Santa Anita or Del Mar, four ran in the Del Mar Futurity and six ran in the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita in October. They include Nyquist, who did all of that on his way to winning the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
The Del Mar Futurity, at 7 furlongs, also revolves around Baffert, whose colts have won the past four runnings and 18 of the past 29, dominance that began with Silver Charm winning the Futurity in a mild upset to jumpstart his journey to victory in the 1997 Kentucky Derby.
Baffert has four of the six entrants in the race, which is scheduled as the fourth race on the program starting at 1:30 p.m. Sunday: Brant, the $3 million 2-year-old whose maiden victory in July produced a 101 Beyer speed figure, the best by a horse his age in 2025; Balboa, third to Brant in that maiden race; Desert Gate, 2 for 2 after winning the Best Pal Stakes, and Litmus Test, an $875,000 yearling who won first time out. O’Neill trains the other two.
The lineup: Brigante (Berrios), Brant (Flavien Prat), Balboa (Kimura), Civil Liberty (Fresu), Desert Gate (Hernandez) and Litmus Test (Tyler Gaffalione).
The morning line will be posted Friday, but Brant should be a strong favorite.
“He looks like a million bucks – times three!” Del Mar track announcer Larry Collmus enthused as Brant, a gray son of Gun Runner, flashed away from Civil Liberty and Balboa in their July 26 race.
The buildup to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in the next eight weeks could match anticipation for the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 1.
Last weekend’s Pacific Classic at Del Mar and Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga may turn out to have been the peak of the Breeders’ Cup Classic prep season.
It appeared this week that Pacific Classic winner Fierceness and second-place Journalism, and Gold Cup 1-2-3 finishers Antiquarian, Sierra Leone and Highland Falls all will be trained up to Breeders’ Cup instead of running in one of the autumn preps, as will Mindframe, whose Gold Cup ended early when Irad Ortiz Jr. was bumped to the ground.
Of the 10 in this week’s Breeders’ Cup Classic contenders rankings, the only horses apparently scheduled for further preps in the United States are Nysos (scratched from the Pacific Classic, aiming for the Sept. 27 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita), and Baeza (the Sept. 20 Pennsylvania Derby).
Unlike those older horses, 2-year-olds need to prove and season themselves in the couple of months before the Breeders’ Cup, and handicappers will be scouting them in Sunday’s Del Mar Futurity, the Sept. 13 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, and the Oct. 4 American Pharoah, Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. While six of the past 11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners came out of the American Pharoah (including Citizen Bull in 2024), three of the past nine came out of the Breeders’ Futurity (most recently Forte in 2022), and three of the past 13 came out of the Champagne (the latest was Fierceness in 2023).
The Breeders’ Futurity could include Ted Noffey, the Todd Pletcher-trained son of Into Mischief who won the Hopeful Stakes by 8-1/2 lengths at Saratoga last Monday, earning a 98 Beyer figure, second-highest by a 2-year-old in 2025. The Champagne could attract It’s Our Time, the Tom Amoss-trained son of Not This Time who won by 17-3/4 lengths at Saratoga in his debut last month, his 94 Beyer figure third-highest in the class.
But the road to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile starts Sunday with the Del Mar Futurity.
The best in that race should find themselves back at Del Mar on Oct. 31.
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.