The Pac-12 dissolved 13 months ago, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup.
The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse, albeit with one critical change. Instead of using conference record to establish the pecking order, overall record is the determinant.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams.
Six wins has been the threshold for bowl eligibility for eons, but super conferences have existed for just two seasons. Where those forces intersect, a critical dynamic lies: conference schedule rotations.
The path into the postseason depends as much on which teams are off the schedule in a given year as which teams are on it.
In the Big Ten and ACC, each team misses eight of the others.
In the SEC, there are seven misses.
In the Big 12, six.
Combine the schedule rotations with the bowl math and the coaching hot seats, and three specific situations pique our interest within the collection of Pac-12 legacy teams.
Cal’s Justin Wilcox has an increasingly warm seat, with general manager Ron Rivera stating recently that he believed eight or nine wins would constitute a successful season.
The Bears haven’t won eight overall since 2019 and haven’t won eight in the regular season since 2009.
But look here: The Bears (2-0) are favored at home this week against Minnesota, then visit struggling San Diego State. It’s reasonable to envision a 4-0 record when ACC play begins. And then? Cal does not play No. 5 Miami, No. 10 Florida State or No. 12 Clemson.
That might be suboptimal for ticket-selling purposes, but it’s beyond advantageous for a team — and coach — in need of eight wins.
Or consider Arizona, where Brent Brennan is under pressure to reach the postseason after his abysmal first year. The schedule is indisputably favorable: The Wildcats (2-0) don’t play No. 20 Utah, No. 21 Texas Tech or TCU, which is unranked but looks like a potential contender.
Had Brennan himself constructed the most favorable schedule possible for Year 2, it would bear more than a faint resemblance to the official version.
And if you’re wondering about the third coach with significant seat heat — that would be USC’s Lincoln Riley — the Big Ten did him a solid. Two solids, actually.
The Trojans don’t play No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Penn State.
Riley, Brennan and Wilcox are facing varying amounts of pressure and have different thresholds for success. But all three stand to benefit greatly from the conference schedules — specifically, from the opponents they won’t face.
To the bowl projections …
College Football PlayoffTeam: Utah (Big 12 champion)Comment: There’s plenty of competition for the Big 12 title, with Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona State and TCU as candidates for the throne. And because it’s the Big 12, at least one team will make an unexpected charge. So our confidence level with this selection is no better than modest until more results roll in.
College Football PlayoffTeam: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)Comment: By automatic bid or at-large berth, the Ducks are one of the safest CFP picks in the country at the moment. And speaking of the schedule misses, they don’t play Ohio State or No. 9 Illinois. However, the schedule has plenty of former Big Ten West teams (Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern), which is always a good thing for boosting win totals.
Alamo BowlTeam: USCComment: Admittedly, we’re at risk of being overly nuanced with this assessment. But in some ways, the Trojans are better positioned for a CFP run through the Big Ten, because conference record plays a role — and they miss the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions — than they are positioned for a top-tier Pac-12 bowl, where overall record dictates everything and they have to play Notre Dame. And if that assessment makes absolutely no sense, apologies.
Las Vegas BowlTeam: WashingtonComment: The toughest games (Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon) are at home, where the Huskies haven’t lost since the 2021 Apple Cup. The likelihood of that 22-game home winning streak being intact at the end of November is just this side of zero.
Holiday BowlTeam: Arizona StateComment: In contrast to Arizona, which avoids many of the Big 12’s best teams, the Sun Devils play Utah, Texas Tech, Iowa State and TCU. With that schedule and a non-conference loss already on their books, nine wins seems like a reasonable ceiling.
Sun BowlTeam: CalComment: The Bears have been playing college football since the 1880s. The Sun Bowl has existed since the 1930s. And yet, their paths have never crossed. It’s time.
LA BowlTeam: ArizonaComment: One week later, we are quite content with having pronounced the Wildcats bowl-bound. They look even better, and many of their opponents look even worse.
Non-qualifierTeam: ColoradoComment: The schedule is difficult, the questions are numerous — that list starts with CU’s quarterback controversy — and the bowl math is just a tad too complicated. More things need to break right than we care to count at this point.
Non-qualifierTeam: Oregon StateComment: The Beavers have bigger problems than bad bowl math. They must determine, sooner than later, if coach Trent Bray is capable of leading the program.
Non-qualifierTeam: StanfordComment: We have a funny feeling the non-qualifier status will remain in place through the 2026 season and perhaps through 2027, too.
Non-qualifierTeam: UCLAComment: Based on how they have played to date, the Bruins will be hard-pressed to win more than five games — and that’s assuming they grab one or two that nobody expects. They will be favored in no more than three, by our count.
Non-qualifierTeam: Washington StateComment: The difficult mid-season schedule, with three consecutive road games and back-to-back trips across the country (to Mississippi and Virginia), leaves the Cougars with a margin so thin it’s not visible to the naked eye.
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