The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Let’s say Jedd Fisch leaves Washington for Florida next year. Who are some candidates to start keeping an eye on to succeed him at Washington? — @draywilson29
What do you make of Jonathan Smith’s trajectory at Michigan State? Can Smith get them back to the Mark Dantonio glory days? — Michael J
We combined the questions because there is significant overlap to the answers, but let’s begin with the speculative portion of the first: The Hotline does not expect Jedd Fisch to leave Washington once the coaching carousel begins to spin this winter.
That doesn’t mean he won’t leave, and it would be foolish to ignore the connective tissue.
Florida coach Billy Napier is back on the Hot Seat after the loss to South Florida and faces Miami, LSU, Texas and Texas A&M in succession.
It’s hardly a stretch to envision the Gators making a change after the season. If Washington ends with eight or nine wins — if Fisch looks to be replicating the success he had at Arizona — then his alma mater might place the call.
And he might listen.
To be clear, our intent here is to assess the hypothetical situation posed by the reader and not to drive a speculative narrative. The difference is slight but important.
The Smith piece is easy to connect. If his second season in East Lansing produces eight or nine wins — a distinct possibility given the presence of a major quarterback talent (Aidan Chiles) — then Smith could become a hot name on the carousel.
Would he leave Michigan State after two years? Would he walk away from a contract that pays roughly $7.5 million annually in a relatively low-pressure job?
(It’s not like the Spartans expect playoff berths each year. Their success under Mark Dantonio was an outlier against decades of fair-to-middlin’ results.)
Smith left Oregon State after the 2023 season to continue coaching in a major conference — the Pac-12 was collapsing and he found a life raft.
We never viewed Michigan State as his last job but, rather, as a means to an end: Coaching one of the premier football-playing schools on the West Coast.
Smith grew up in Pasadena, played for Oregon State and spent his coaching career in the West, right up to the point he moved to East Lansing. It only makes sense that he would want to return to home terrain eventually.
Whether his preferred destination is UCLA, USC or Washington, we cannot say. But it would hardly be a surprise to see Smith running one of those programs next year or in three years or five years.
His tenure working for Chris Petersen in Seattle cannot be discounted in the broader calculation whenever Fisch leaves Montlake — presuming, of course, that he doesn’t become a UW lifer.
But the Huskies should not assume Smith will be available and willing the next time they need a head coach. For that matter, nor should USC and UCLA, which could be in the market long before Washington.
Where could the West Coast schools turn (and we’d include Oregon in this group, as well)?
Here are four names to monitor over the next few years:
— New Mexico’s Jason Eck. In his first season with the Lobos, Eck did masterful work at Idaho with 26 wins in three years. The Lobos were competitive at Michigan in Week 1 and visit UCLA tonight.
— Tulane’s Jon Sumrall. Perhaps the most coveted coach outside the power conferences, Sumrall seems destined for an SEC job this winter. (The conference could have several vacancies.)
— Fresno State’s Matt Entz. After winning two FCS national championships, Entz spent the 2024 season on USC’s staff. We suspect he will revitalize the Bulldogs and be one of the hottest names on the market in a few years — and draw comparisons to Kalen DeBoer.
— Texas State’s GJ Kinne. The Bobcats will enter the Pac-12 next season, offering Kinne terrific exposure on the West Coast. Of note: They play Arizona State on Saturday night.
Do you think Notre Dame would be out of playoff contention at 10-2? Two-loss teams made it last year and will this year, but is there a certain zeal to knock them down for their Independent status? — @WorkishFromHome
That’s certainly a logical assumption, but at the administrative level, the CFP has done everything possible to make the Irish comfortable and solidify their unaffiliated status.
We generally concur with your assessment:
— At 11-1, the Irish are a lock for the CFP.
— At 9-3, they are in deep trouble.
— At 10-2, it gets complicated and will depend on 1) the nature of the second loss (opponent and margin), 2) the quality of teams Notre Dame beats on the way to 10 wins and 3) the teams competing for the at-large spots.
Notre Dame’s schedule isn’t exactly stout. The Irish lost at No. 5 Miami in the opener and host No. 16 Texas A&M this weekend. None of their other 10 opponents are ranked and only one, USC, is currently in range of the Top 25.
If they finish without any victories over ranked opponents and are competing against two-loss teams from the SEC and Big Ten for at-large bids, their path will be narrow.
Put another way: If Notre Dame finishes with two losses, the top SEC and Big Ten candidates must have three.
Even that might not be enough for a bid, however.
The Irish need two or three of the mid-level power conference teams on their schedule (Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College, NC State and Arkansas) to have better-than-expected seasons.
And they need the Trojans to be elite.
Do you expect Oregon State to make any coaching changes before next season? — @FiaCorvetta
Given how the Beavers (0-2) have performed thus far, and with a daunting stretch ahead — they play Texas Tech and Oregon on the road in back-to-back weeks — it’s reasonable to believe changes are coming.
Position coaches and coordinators could be replaced, perhaps during the season.
What about Trent Bray himself?
If the team’s performance on the field and Bray’s performance in public situations (e.g., media interviews) don’t improve, the Beavers might not have a choice.
They cannot enter the rebuilt Pac-12 next fall with a spiraling situation. If December arrives and the Beavers are floundering, the cost of keeping Bray might be greater than the cost of making a change.
Even though cash is scarce.
Even though he’s an alumnus.
Even though disruption is difficult.
The Beavers cannot take any chances. They cannot start the next chapter at a disadvantage.
If the going rate between the Mountain West and Pac-12 for inter-conference matchups was $250,000 to $500,000 per game, why would anyone in their right mind sign a contract for $2 million per game? — @Jimmy0726
Nobody would, and that’s exactly why the Pac-12 filed the poaching penalty lawsuit last fall.
To be clear: The Hotline has not examined enough game contracts to confirm the going rate for matchups between the conferences before the Pac-12 imploded.
But clearly, Washington State and Oregon State were in a desperate situation in the late fall of 2023. They needed to finalize 12-game schedules for the following year and were running out of time and options.
The lawsuit claims the Mountain West knew the Pac-12 was desperate and used that leverage to ratchet up the price — that the Pac-12 essentially signed the contract under duress.
Will the court side with the Pac-12? Who knows.
But the fact WSU and OSU agreed to terms that were known to be outlandish on the established market reveals their level of desperation at the time.
How do you think the College Football Playoff selection committee will react to some of the Big Ten schools with awful non-conference and overall schedules? If Penn State drops both the Oregon and Ohio State games, would the Nittany Lions have the strength-of-record to make the CFP as an at-large team? — Will D
Penn State could be a fascinating test case for the revised selection process, which gives more weight to schedule strength than the version used last season.
If you’ll recall, that version sent Indiana into the CFP with no wins over ranked teams and a non-conference schedule of Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte.
Recently, the CFP announced changes to the process that emphasize quality wins and reduce the impact of losses to good teams. That led (immediately) to the SEC adopting a nine-game conference schedule starting next season.
As for this fall, well, Penn State is one of two Big Ten teams with designs on the CFP and embarrassingly weak schedules.
The Nittany Lions play Florida International, Nevada and Villanova, while Indiana (of course) plays Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
We suspect two-loss Penn State would receive a bid because, in the scenario laid out above, its resume would include victories over Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State and Nebraska. There might be enough juice in that collection of results to justify an at-large spot.
But if the Nittany Lions finish the season with a resume that resembles Indiana’s 2024 profile, with a weak non-conference schedule and no wins over ranked teams, we would leave them out and not give it a second thought — especially if there were at-large candidates in the two- and three-loss range with at least one quality victory.
Had Kalen DeBoer stayed at Washington, would his recruiting have been successful enough to keep the Huskies competitive in the Big Ten? — D Hill
It depends on how you define “recruiting” in today’s environment.
DeBoer isn’t a dynamo on the trail like Oregon’s Dan Lanning, for instance. But in the NIL and revenue-sharing era, talent acquisition is less about personality and more about cold, hard cash.
If the Huskies had the resources available to pay top dollar for blue-chip prospects and coveted transfers, they would attract the talent necessary to win at a high level even with DeBoer’s recruiting style.
Also, his reputation for quarterback development, with Michael Penix Jr. as the prime example, would certainly increase the likelihood of UW signing an elite passer — a pretty good place to start with roster construction.
The dynamics aren’t much different under Jedd Fisch. His recruiting skills alone won’t save the program if the Huskies fail to muster the cash needed to land top talent through revenue sharing and NIL.
If Saint Mary’s joining the Pac-12 is not to be, is there a chance the Gaels find a home in the Mountain West? — @ColAthAdv_Will
The Hotline has never viewed Saint Mary’s as a likely addition for the rebuilt Pac-12, but don’t assume the two sides have reached a dead end. It’s realignment, where unlikely scenarios have a way of becoming reality just when all hope seems lost.
But if we assume the road is blocked for the sake of this exercise, it’s worth wondering if the Gaels would be a realistic candidate for the Mountain West.
There is precedent. Grand Canyon doesn’t sponsor football and is entering the Mountain West this season, and UC Davis is joining the conference in 2026-27 while leaving its football program in the Big Sky (FCS).
Our sense is the Gaels would favor a viable West Coast Conference over life in the Mountain West — competing against like-minded schools is always the preference — but they would consider changing conferences if the WCC somehow veers towards collapse.
For the Mountain West, the situation doesn’t seem as clear. The conference could have invited the Gaels but opted for Grand Canyon, which has more resources and, arguably, more potential for sustained long-term success.
Saint Mary’s is forever fighting the presumption that once Randy Bennett retires, whether that’s in two years or eight years, the program will regress.
I know USC fans believe all is well in the world of ESPN’s Football Power Index, but if there is a caring person in Bristol, Conn., shouldn’t they take the FPI to the programming doctor for a Wellness Check? — Jon J
The FPI is required reading for anyone interested in a good laugh. As a valid metric for performance assessment, it has little credibility — at least this early in the season.
All you need to know about the FPI is that Alabama is No. 4 this week and Florida State is No. 27.
(The Trojans are fifth, by the way.)
Results need to count for something, right? Not according to the ESPN algorithm, it appears.
In your estimation, will we see college players declaring for bankruptcy because of money mismanagement? — @MrEd315
In theory, athletes have surrounded themselves with smart, reasonable advisors who will take a long-haul view and make sound financial suggestions.
(OK, let’s pause for laughter.)
Yes, we will see bankruptcy filings by athletes. It feels inevitable, although the first instance could come after the athlete’s eligibility expires — and assuming he or she doesn’t sign a pro contract.
The era of NIL, revenue sharing and the transfer portal carries unintended consequences, with the potential for poor financial advice and bankruptcy on a rather lengthy list.
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