As the country goes through its first government shutdown in nearly seven years, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and President Trump find themselves in a vulnerable moment that could make-or-break their standing with voters in the months ahead.
Indeed, the stakes are high across the aisle as the shutdown begins to creep its way into the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans through mass layoffs, increased insurance costs, and cuts to funding for vital programs.
And in California – a state that employs over 150,000 federal workers – these repercussions will likely be felt the hardest.
For the last decade, California has steadily expanded access to healthcare coverage, implementing tools like auto-enrollment and “shop-and-compare” that have made attaining financial help easy. Now, the shutdown puts that – and more – in danger.
Most jarringly, California officials warned that, due to expiring Obamacare subsidies, monthly premiums may double, causing as many as 400,000 people – almost a quarter of total enrollees in the state – to drop out of the nation’s largest health insurance marketplace.
But Californians aren’t the only ones bracing for impact – blue states nationwide are also in jeopardy of feeling the shockwaves from the shutdown as President Trump targets Democrat-backed programs while shielding those that align with his own priorities, like mass deportation and tariff efforts.
Indeed, it’s important to note that the negatives of the shutdown for Democrats don’t come without a long list of positives for Trump and his Republican base: reducing the size and scope of government, accelerating the ability to impose time limits and work requirements on Medicaid, and curbing excessive federal spending.
“We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them,” the president said in the Oval Office Tuesday. “Cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like.”
However, Trump’s gamble carries real risks for the future of the Republican party. If ordinary Americans – especially conservatives – feel that the shutdown has gone on too long, he could be viewed as putting ideology over stability, undermining the very political advantage he hopes to build.
It is this high-risk, high-reward formula that defines what one former Trump official has called his “strategic” approach: an attempt to inflict maximum pain on Democrats in the hopes that it’ll add to the chaos already surrounding the party.
And after the bombshell book drop by former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party is in no need of any more internal disarray and scrutiny.
Put another way, it’s crucial that Democrats successfully handle the consequences of the shutdown. If not, they are in peril of deepening the wounds they’ve been trying to heal since November.
For Newsom specifically, the shutdown presents an opportunity to cement himself as the only Democrat able to fight back against Trump – an effort he’s been working towards since the deployment of the National Guard in Los Angeles earlier this year.
Just after the midnight funding deadline last night, Newsom mocked the president’s signature social media style, writing on X that Trump is “a very weak man” in all-caps.
Nonetheless, it’s clear that Newsom is ready to put a stop to MAGA’s antics – the question that remains is whether the governor will be the leader Democrats need to do so.
While early numbers show Newsom leading in three of the five most recent polls compiled by RealClearPolitics – averaging a 5.5-point advantage– how he tackles the shutdown could prove to be yet another do-or-die moment in his career.
If he manages it well, Newsom could be seen as a Democrat who offers real, effective solutions to the nation’s most hard-hitting problems – natural disasters, social tensions, economic crises, and now a government shutdown.
If he doesn’t, though, he’s in danger of succumbing to the very trap that tanked Harris last election cycle: running on pure resistance to Trump and extremist Republicans.
Following the release of Harris’ “107 Days,” it’s evident that the Democratic electorate is looking for a standard-bearer who can unite Americans in times of need, not divide them further.
And if Newsom can prove to do just that – while also maintaining moderate, common-sense stances on pertinent issues like the economy and immigration – he may have what it takes to make a true bid for the Oval Office.
Although it’s too soon to see the effects of the shutdown on Newsom and Trump, whether good or bad, they’re sure to be critical in determining who will call the White House home come 2028.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.