It’s becoming difficult to find rent discounts in Southern California.
That’s what my trusty spreadsheet found when it reviewed September rent data from ApartmentList, which covers 50 Southern California cities in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura counties. In many parts of the region, tenants’ hopes for extended rent discounts have been dashed, according to this index of pricing for one-bedroom and two-bedroom units, which is based on government and company data.
In the year ending in September, the median rent change in the 50 local cities was a 0.4% gain, with 20 cities having a decline. Changes ranged from a 4.1% dip in Laguna Niguel to Santa Ana’s 4.4% gain.
Compare those swings with the previous 12 months, which were more favorable to tenants. The median rent move was a 1% drop a year ago, with 30 cities showing price declines – running from a 6.4% slip in Santa Monica to a 3.5% increase in Thousand Oaks.
What’s new
Several factors cooled the rent discounting.
The cost of ownership remains daunting, prompting many families to opt for renting rather than buying. That keeps demand for rentals high.
Plus, the modest new construction spurt in recent years has largely been completed. So landlords have fewer new units to fill.
And don’t forget the significant loss of housing due to January’s wildfires in Los Angeles County. That cut supply and boosted demand.
Note that within the 50 cities, pricing was firmer closer to the fire zones.
Now, let’s compare the average geographic coordinates of the 50 cities based on their rent swings and the location of their statistical center.
The largest one-year rent increases were found near Los Angeles International Airport. Minor rent gains were seen in Santa Ana. And rent declines? Near Lake Elsinore.
Counting counties
The wildfire influence can be seen within countywide results.
The three counties closest to the fires – Los Angeles, Ventura, and Orange – saw rent decreases in just six of the 30 cities tracked. In the 20 cities in San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, rents fell in 14 of them.
Ponder the county changes, listing in order of one-year price moves …
Orange: Rents rose 1.4% in a year to $2,576 a month compared with a 0.2% gain in the previous 12 months. City extremes in the past year: Santa Ana’s 4.4% gain to a drop of 4.1% in Laguna Niguel.
Ventura: Up 0.8% to $2,475 vs. 0.7% gain previous 12 months. City extremes: Ventura’s 3.6% gain to a drop of 0.3% in Thousand Oaks.
Los Angeles: Up 0.3% to $2,090 vs. a 1.6% drop in the previous 12 months. City extremes: Burbank’s 2.2% gain to a drop of 1.5% in West Covina.
San Diego: Down 0.1% to $2,278 vs. a 2.9% drop previous 12 months. City extremes: Vista’s 1.9% gain to a decline of 1.3% in Escondido.
Riverside: Down 0.9% to $1,925 vs. flat during the previous 12 months. City extremes: Riverside’s 0.4% gain to a drop of 3.6% in Temecula.
San Bernardino: Down 1.4% to $1,773 vs. flat during the previous 12 months. City extremes: Ontario’s 0.9% dip to a drop of 3% in Colton.
For 27% of California tenants, rent is more than half their income
Mildly rising rents are also a statewide issue. California rents rose 1.3% in the past year to $2,198, compared with a 0.4% drop in the previous 12 months.
It’s a slightly different story nationally. U.S. rents fell 0.8% to $1,394 over the past year, following a 0.7% decline in the previous 12 months.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com