It’s never fair to hang nine years of playoff disappointment on one player. But in Toronto, that’s exactly how it feels, and the Maple Leafs are banking on subtraction leading to evolution.
Since Mitch Marner’s debut in 2016–17, only the Bruins and Lightning have earned more regular-season points than the Maple Leafs. But that stat rings hollow for a fan base that watched seven first-round exits and just two playoff series wins during the same stretch.
So while correlation may not equal causation, Toronto’s decision to move on from its hometown superstar — and his $12 million cap hit — feels like a necessary reset rather than a loss.
Maple Leafs ‘Change Their DNA’ Following Trade of Mitch Marner
“This is a different Toronto Maple Leafs team,” said NHL Network analyst Brian Boyle, himself a veteran of playoff battles with multiple teams.
“They wanted to change their DNA,” he continued. “They realized they had a ton of ability, but they couldn’t get over the hump with how it was constructed, so they made changes.”
The irony, of course, is that Toronto might be less fun to watch in the regular season — but finally more built for May.
“As constructed, I like this team a little bit less in October, November, December,” Boyle said, “but I like them a lot more in February, March, April.”
Which is not to suggest that Toronto won’t reach the 100-point plateau for the fifth straight season. In fact, Ryan Whitney from the Spittin’ Chiclets podcast believes a “deep” and “heavier” Maple Leafs roster will be surprisingly successful in the regular season, and perhaps stunningly so in the playoffs.
“I think the bet of the year in NHL futures on DraftKings is the Toronto Maple Leafs over 99-and-a-half points,” Whitney said. “I think they’re an absolute wagon. And I don’t even hate the 19-to-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup when you’re talking about value. It’s a hell of a squad.”
Podcast co-host Keith Yandle agreed, adding that he believes despite the loss of Marner from his wing, center Auston Matthews will still be a league-leading offensive producer flanked by Matthew Knies and Max Domi.
“I actually love that line,” Yandle said. “I don’t think (Matthews is) going to, you know, lose value in points and goals and stuff. Those guys are going to get him the puck. He needs guys like that.”
Toronto Looks More Playoff-Ready Despite Loss of Mitch Marner
But insider Mike Rupp, appearing with Boyle on NHL Tonight, stressed it’s the rest of the forward group that will make the biggest difference for Toronto, beginning with Nicolas Roy, who the Maple Leafs acquired from Vegas in the sign-and-trade deal for Marner.
“You got a guy, though, who has playoff experience, he can elevate his game,” Rupp said. “You can really move Nick Roy up and down your lineup in a bunch of different roles, and he provides those intangibles you need come playoff game.”
And when factoring in Roy’s size at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, along with the other big bodies recently added to Toronto’s roster — such as Dakota Joshua (6-3, 218), Scott Laughton (6-1, 190), Sammy Blais (6-0, 206) — Rupp said head coach Craig Berube now has a team with depth and meanness that can carry its share of the overall weight, particularly in the playoffs.
“What’s different about this team for me is they have specialty players, and I think Craig Berube, because he was a specialty player when he played, he’s going to realize, if I empower these guys, they can take some of the onus off the (top line) guys … and that will pay its dues come playoff time, and that’s when you need it to happen,” Rupp said. “I think this is the best forward group to win in April, May and June that the Leafs have had in quite some time.”
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