Met Office gives verdict on if the UK will be hit by snow this month

For fans of winter weather who enjoy nothing more than wrapping up in cozy jumpers and thick blankets, the prospect of the UK’s first snow of 2025 is an exciting one.

But don’t get too excited at the prospect of the white stuff falling any time soon.

Some news outlets are reporting long-range forecast data from site WX Charts which suggests, very specifically, that the UK will see snowfall on October 24.

The data suggests temperatures on that date will drop to freezing or below across almost the entirety of the UK, with only a small band of south west England staying above 0°C.

What has the Met Office said?

Any preparations for snowfall now would be premature, the Met Office has warned.

Right now, the forecaster’s longest-range forecast covering October 23 until November 6 predicts the period will see ‘changeable’ conditions, with showers or long spells of rain likely.

Their forecast doesn’t make any mention of snow – in part because it’s ‘particularly tricky’ to predict when it’ll snow in the UK, Met Office spokesperson Stephen Dixon told Metro.

He put paid to claims an exact date for snowfall could be forecast accurately, saying: ‘Snow in the UK is particularly tricky to forecast. It’s tricky to pinpoint until three to four days ahead of time.

‘It’s not accurate to suggest an exact date for snow forecast two or three weeks away.

‘That’s not the way meteorology works or how weather forecasting works, it comes with uncertainty and nuance.’

Throughout October, as we approach meteorological winter, the likelihood of snowfall across the UK naturally increases.

It’s also possible we might see a dusting of snowfall in the Scottish Highlands – pretty common during the coldest parts of the year.

But it’s difficult to predict any weather, let alone snow, with much accuracy during longer-range forecasts, Stephen said.

Why WX Charts is ‘not particularly helpful’

He said WX Charts, the site used by some news outlets to predict snow on October 24, is not actually a forecaster.

Stephen explained: ‘It’s a website which displays raw forecast model output from a number of providers.

‘A lot of the models look forward in time to get a sense for uncertainties that exist. You can roll those models forward as long as you want to.

‘When you start looking three to four weeks away you can find a variety of outputs – it’s not particularly accurate or helpful to use one single map in three weeks’ time as the definitive forecast.’

Forecasters trying to predict the upcoming weather may run forecast models for the same date multiple times. The more often they see a particular weather event in those repeated models, the more confident they can be about its likelihood.

In the case of WX Charts, their website may only display a handful of forecast models, meaning they’re not entirely reliable when it comes to making predictions.

Weather forecast for the rest of this week

The current forecast for the rest of this week – with no snow in sight – from the Met Office says: ‘Today, dry and bright with sunny spells across the south, after the clearance of any fog patches.

‘Cloudier further north with some light and patchy rain affecting parts of Northern Ireland and Cumbria into the afternoon. Gusty winds across Scotland.

‘Tonight, cloud sinking south into central areas overnight, otherwise largely dry with clear spells.

‘Thicker cloud with outbreaks of rain across western Scotland. Some fog patches developing across the southwest later.

‘Largely settled on Friday, with variable amounts of cloud, but some sunny spells too, the best of any sunshine across the northeast. Thicker cloud and patchy rain across western Scotland.

‘High pressure dominates into the weekend and Monday, bringing mostly dry conditions, light winds, sunny spells, and near-average temperatures, but with chilly nights and patchy fog. Near normal daytime temperatures.’

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