In a season filled with promise,Detroit ace Tarik Skubal now finds himself in the spotlight: Friday’s winner-take-all Game 5 of the ALDS between the Tigers and Mariners. When the pressure is at maximum, Detroit is entrusting its best on the mound. Historically, Tigers lefties have rarely won sudden-death postseason games–only Hal Newhouser in 1945 and Mickey Lolich in 1968 before this moment. Skubal’s opportunity is both rare and immense.
Skubal’s numbers tell an interesting story. Against Seattle this season he has struggled (0-2 with a 4.58 ERA), but everywhere else, he’s been dominant. The challenge in Game 5 is more than just repeating his peak form; it’s about adapting, commanding, and staying ahead of the Mariners’ adjustments.
According to analyst Tom Verducci, here’s how Detroit hopes Skubal executes the perfect plan to punch a ticket to the ALCS.
Five Keys to Skubal’s Success
1. Attack Hitters, Don’t Invite Pressure
Skubal is among the most aggressive pitchers in MLB. He leads in strike percentage, first-pitch strikes, and counts where he gets to 0-2. In Game 5, the blueprint is simple: attack early, don’t let Seattle “wait him out,” and prevent the pitch count from ballooning. Once he’s working ahead, the margin for error tightens for the Mariners.
This approach forces Seattle’s hitters into uncomfortable positions. If they falter early, the Tigers can maintain leverage. Conversely, waking up behind in the count is how mistakes start creeping in.
2. Let Adrenaline Be the Fuel
In big moments, Skubal often taps into another gear. His two highest fastball velocity games this season came during the postseason–99.1 mph in the Wild Card, and 98.1 mph in ALDS Game 2. That speaks to how intensely he channels pressure into performance. After throwing more than 200 innings this season, being able to elevate speed late is a weapon few lefties possess.
3. Re-establish the Changeup
Throughout the season, Skubal’s changeup has rated among the best in baseball. But in postseason starts, its usage has dropped–down to about 21.6%, versus ~31.4% in the regular season. In Game 5, reintroducing the changeup can keep Seattle off balance, especially after stacking fastballs and breaking balls.
It’s about timing. If the Mariners begin to anticipate heaters or sliders, mixing the changeup effectively could steal swings or weak contact, and that variation may be essential over multiple innings.
4. Get the Slider Down
Given the recent dip in changeup usage, Skubal has leaned more heavily on his slider, doubling its use in the postseason to about 21.6%. But command matters. In Game 2, he tended to leave sliders up or toward the glove side, which Seattle capitalized on. Lowering that pitch–especially in two-strike counts or against aggressive hitters–can turn it into a swing-and-miss or weakly hit offering.
5. Keep the Ball Off the Plate
This final key is obvious but critical: avoid mistakes over the middle. Even elite stuff can be punished when left over the heart of the zone. In Game 2, Skubal left only three pitches down the middle–two became home runs by Polanco, the other a foul grounder. Maintaining spot command and forcing hitters to reach is fundamental, especially as Seattle’s lineup adjusts.
Narrative & Historical Resonance
There’s a poetic element to this matchup. Skubal attended college and pitched at Seattle University, just a few miles from T-Mobile Park, now returning to that same baseball battleground in the highest-stakes moment. Add to that his status as last year’s Cy Young winner, and the weight of the moment is magnified: he’s one of the few reigning Cy Young winners to start a winner-take-all postseason game in the Wild Card era.
“Yeah, this is what competition is all about,” Skubal said. “This is why you play the game, for Game 5s.”
Detroit manager A.J. Hinch has openly expressed that he feels Skubal is his best arm:
“One of the easiest and most exciting things to do is hand the ball to the best pitcher in baseball. He’s deeply trusted in our clubhouse.”
But execution will decide how long Skubal can hold that mantle on Friday night. Each pitch, each count, each matchup will matter.
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