Did Alex Bregman do the Boston Red Sox a huge favor?
With the unsurprising announcement that Bregman will opt out of the last two seasons in the three-year, $120 million contract he signed in February, the Red Sox must decide what to do at third base. The most obvious answer, of course, is to meet Bregman’s asking price and bring back the 31-year-old who, despite playing just 114 games, showed Boston that he can still be an elite hitter who plays high-level defense and provides leadership for the younger players.
But the obvious answer isn’t always the best one. And if Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow wants to get the most bang for his buck, perhaps he’d be wiser spending it elsewhere.
That’s not to say Bregman wasn’t productive — far from it. He slashed .273/.360/.462 with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs, posting an OPS of .822 that was his highest since 2019, and he flashed the leather at third base that showed why he won his first Gold Glove in 2024.
But by the most objective measure available, Bregman didn’t quite give Boston a full return on its $40 million investment.
Alex Bregman’s Exit Could Allow Boston to Add Japanese Phenom Munetaka Murakami
According to Baseball-Reference, Bregman was worth 3.5 wins above replacement in 2025, a mark that translates to roughly $28 million in on-field value using the standard $8 million-per-WAR conversion. In other words, the Red Sox paid superstar money for very good production — a familiar gap for teams that buy proven veterans instead of developing them.
Even allowing for the leadership, postseason experience, and steadiness he brought to a young roster, it’s a reminder that Bregman’s name still carries more weight than his actual impact. He’s closer to a dependable No. 2 bat now than the MVP-level force he once was in Houston. For a team trying to stretch payroll dollars while patching several holes, Boston has to ask whether that kind of value — and the brand recognition that comes with it — is still worth another massive check.
And it would certainly be a massive check. Keep in mind that Bregman turned down a six-year, $171-million deal from the Detroit Tigers last offseason, and with several suitors expected to be in the running, Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report predicted that Bregman could command a contract of five years, $175 million in the coming months. That could be a tough pill to swallow in the final few seasons, when Bregman is on the wrong side of 35.
But if Boston decides to pivot away from Bregman, who would be a logical candidate to fill that spot? According to a post on X (formerly Twitter) from MLB stats analyst Dean Ciriaco, the Red Sox may already have someone in mind:
“I am hearing that the Red Sox fully intend on meeting with Munetaka Murakami and that they view him as a potential replacement to Alex Bregman.
“Whether you like it or not, Bregman was not worth the $40 million. He produced around $28 million worth of value. Time to move on.”
Munetaka Murakami Ready to Bring His Powerful Bat to MLB
A 25-year-old Japanese slugger, Murakami will reportedly be posted by the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball this winter, making him available to all MLB teams. A two-time Central League Most Valuable Player and four-time All-Star, Murakami has already reached legendary status in his native country.
In 2022, Murakami became the youngest player to earn the triple crown in NPB, Japan’s top league, batting .318 with 56 home runs and 134 RBIs. The home run total broke the mark of Sadaharu Oh for most in a season by a Japanese-born player.
Although Murakami has primarily played third base in his career, many around MLB view him as a future first baseman. For the Red Sox, with shortstop Trevor Story expected not to opt out of his contract, it would allow them to put Marcelo Mayer at third base, while Murakami can plug what was a significant hole at first base throughout the 2025 season.
Bleacher Report suggests Murakami could be signed for 10 years, $220 million, a significant AAV savings from the Bregman forecast. Factor in the money Boston is saving after the Rafael Devers trade, and there is financial room on the roster to add another significant bat, like DH Kyle Schwarber. And with Roman Anthony entering his first full MLB season, the Red Sox could have the chance to field a lineup of epic power proportions.
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