Californians are so spooked about their economic futures that one measure of their collective financial outlook is down 23% since Donald Trump captured his second White House stint.
My trusty spreadsheet found a muddied monetary perspective in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for California, which is calculated from public polling. High anxiety is seen when measuring average results for the three months ending in October and the same period 12 months earlier, just before Trump won the presidential election.
The most striking change is the 23% slide in the “expectations” slice of the confidence index – basically, the Californian view of the financial future. That put this yardstick of economic hopes 16% below its average since 2007.
A glum outlook is the key reason the statewide confidence index is down 18% in the past year, falling to a level that’s 7% below average.
California’s global orientation doesn’t align well with Trump’s domestically focused policies.
The Golden State economy – the nation’s largest and the fifth-largest globally – struggles with the new administration’s immigration crackdowns and heightened trade tensions stemming from tariff battles. This year, Californians have seen job growth cool, pay raises shrink and inflation rekindle.
Contemplate the third leg of this optimism measurement – the “present situation.” The index tracking California’s feelings about current conditions is off by a relatively modest 13% year over year. Yet it remains 5% above average.
Extra nervous
California’s economic anxieties are significantly higher than the typical American financial fears.
The U.S. expectations index is down 15% year over year, putting it 11% below average. That dour outlook drove overall U.S. confidence down 8% in the year, but nationwide optimism is still 5% above a 19-year average.
Americans think current conditions are OK, by this math. The U.S. present situation index is off just 1% in the year and is 23% above average.
But ponder two outlook questions polled nationwide by the Conference Board.
Business conditions are expected to get worse, according to 23% of those surveyed this year vs. 15% a year earlier. Meanwhile, 26% see fewer job opportunities vs. 17% just before Trump’s election.
Other anxieties
The financial future looks cloudy to most Americans when you look at the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board. But nowhere seems as anxious as the Golden State – and overall optimism has mostly increased in other states …
Pennsylvania: Expectations down 20% in the year to 18% below the 19-year average. Confidence is up 9% in a year to 3% above average.
Illinois: 11% expectations dip to 11% below average. Confidence up 18% in a year to 13% above average.
Texas: 9% expectations dip to 17% below average. Confidence off 1% in a year to 9% below average.
Ohio: 8% expectations dip to 15% below average. Confidence up 13% in a year to 5% above average.
Michigan: 6% expectations dip to 9% below average. Confidence up 24% in a year to 20% above average.
New York: 5% expectations dip to 4% below average. Confidence up 17% in a year to 14% above average.
Florida: 5% expectations dip to 7% below average. Confidence up 14% in a year to 12% above average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com