Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 2-8. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
For the final time this season, Washington and Oregon are heading across the Rockies for Big Ten affairs that will shape their postseason fate. They aren’t traveling together, but they could have shared a chartered flight. The Ducks play Iowa at 12:30 p.m. on Saturday, while the Huskies face Wisconsin an hour later. Rain and wind are expected in both locales.
But logistics aren’t the only thing the bitter Pacific Northwest rivals have in common this weekend. They need each other to win.
A fascinating narrative that spent weeks in the background moved to center stage Tuesday night with the release of the initial College Football Playoff rankings.
The Ducks were lower than expected (No. 9), the result of an 0-1 record against ranked opponents. And the Huskies were as low as expected (No. 23) given their losses to Ohio State and Michigan.
In those positions, their fates are increasingly intertwined. They need each other to win Saturday, next Saturday and every Saturday except the final Saturday, when the Ducks and Huskies duel in Seattle with a playoff berth potentially on the line for the winner.
How did the utterest of enemies come to need each other?
Washington’s case is straightforward: The Huskies (6-2) must win out to retain any hope of reaching the CFP. But there’s no guarantee that a 10-2 record will be good enough for inclusion, especially if their end-of-season resume features just one victory over a Top 25 opponent: the Ducks.
The higher Oregon is ranked at the time of the Nov. 29 collision in Husky Stadium, the better for Washington’s playoff profile.
The ideal scenario for the Huskies? Oregon beats Iowa, Minnesota and USC and climbs into the top 5. Toppling the Ducks on the final Saturday in that situation would provide UW with substantial resume rocket fuel.
But if Oregon loses to Iowa and/or USC, then a Washington victory over the Ducks wouldn’t pack nearly as much punch.
The Huskies would be more vulnerable to losing a resume showdown against a two-loss team from the SEC or Big 12 that has multiple wins over ranked opponents. (Heck, the Huskies might even be vulnerable to losing a resume showdown with USC in that situation.)
Oregon’s reliance on Washington’s success differs in the specifics but flows from the same concept.
The Ducks (7-1) won’t have any trouble reaching the CFP if they win out, but it could get tricky if they lose. There’s a perfectly plausible scenario in which Oregon finishes 10-2 with no victories over ranked opponents. Their upcoming foes (Iowa, Minnesota, USC and Washington) all have challenging games down the stretch.
In that scenario, the Ducks could be in danger of getting squeezed out of the CFP altogether — and they certainly would be in jeopardy of a third-tier seed (No. 9-12) and playing on the road in the opening round.
But if the Huskies beat Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA, they would be ranked high enough at the time of the season finale that Oregon would be assured of having at least one victory over a Top 25 foe. That could be the difference between inclusion and exclusion or home and road.
After all, the Ducks and Huskies are not navigating November in a vacuum. Results across the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC — not to mention Notre Dame’s fate — will set the at-large bar and impact the number of teams competing for bids.
Oregon’s path into the playoff is considerably wider than Washington’s, but both teams have potholes ahead.
And both would be better off if the other keeps winning, ensuring the showdown in Husky Stadium carries major stakes and lofty rankings.
To the picks …
Season record: 48-56-1 (46.2%)Five-star special: 5-5
(All times Pacific)
Northwestern (+14.5) at USCKickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on FoxComment: The Trojans must win out to remain in the CFP race. (If you’re skeptical, join the crowd.) Northwestern is coming off a bye but lacks the personnel to keep pace for 60 minutes unless USC self-destructs, which is always a possibility. Pick: USC
BYU (+10) at Texas TechKickoff: 9 a.m. on ABCComment: The biggest game in the Big 12 this season doubles as the most significant matchup either school has played in decades. Based on talent, the Red Raiders probably should be double-digit favorites. But BYU is much more than its parts. No team is more adept at finding ways to win games it has no business winning. Pick: BYU
Oregon (-6) at IowaKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBSComment: Not for nothing: The Hawkeyes were far more competitive against Indiana than were the Ducks. (They pushed the Hoosiers to the brink in a five-point loss.) Always stout defensively and typically tough to beat at home, they have added scoring punch to the 2025 repertoire. Pick: Iowa
Kansas (+4.5) at ArizonaKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2Comment: The winner becomes bowl-eligible while the loser faces a tricky path into the postseason. Arizona is fresh off its most complete performance of the season, the blowout of Colorado, but must duplicate the effort this week against stronger competition. KU’s only victories in Big 12 play have come against the bottom feeders (Oklahoma State, UCF and West Virginia). Pick: Arizona
Stanford (+7.5) at North CarolinaKickoff: 1:30 p.m. on The CWComment: Poor timing for Stanford, which is catching the Tar Heels during an upturn and has yet to muster a competitive performance on the road in ACC play: three losses by an average of 29 points. This should be close, but not that close. Pick: North Carolina
Washington (-11) at WisconsinKickoff: 1:30 p.m. on Big Ten NetworkComment: Washington is accustomed to poor weather, but the rain and wind could impact the aerial game and limit touchdowns. The Badgers are awful offensively (12.5 points per game), but in a low-scoring affair, 11 points could feel like 20. Also, UW hasn’t covered the spread when playing in the Eastern or Central Time Zone since joining the Big Ten. Pick: Wisconsin
Florida State (+2.5) at ClemsonKickoff: 4 p.m. on ACC NetworkComment: The most notable development in this matchup is the media outlet handling the broadcast: The rebellious children who sued their conference and pushed for outsized revenue distributions are so irrelevant, they have been relegated to the ACC Network. So rich, so funny. Pick: Florida State
Cal (+20.5) at LouisvilleKickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN2Comment: One team is rolling toward a berth in the ACC championship game; the other is imploding. This could get ugly quickly. Pick: Louisville
LSU (+10) at AlabamaKickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABCComment: The Hotline typically favors teams that have just changed coaches — there’s usually a bounce associated with the interim taking charge and tweaking the culture. But the issue for LSU is opponent and location: The Crimson Tide plays extraordinarily well at home. Pick: Alabama
Nebraska (+1.5) at UCLAKickoff: 6 p.m. on FoxComment: Given the visitor’s quarterback situation — freshman TJ Lateef will start for Nebraska in place of the injured Dylan Raiola — the Bruins, who are coming off a bye, should be favored by four or five points. Pick: UCLA
Sam Houston (+20.5) at Oregon StateKickoff: 7 p.m. on The CWComment: The Bearkats are one of two winless teams in major college football (along with UMass), which explains the massive point spread. We suspect Oregon State will be in letdown mode after beating Washington State. Pick: Sam Houston
Straight-up winners: USC, Texas Tech, Oregon, Arizona, North Carolina, Washington, Florida State, Louisville, Alabama, UCLA and Oregon State
Five-star special: UCLA. Our selection is less about faith in the Bruins and more about Nebraska’s assignment. The Cornhuskers are fresh off a taxing loss to USC and making the long trip to face an opponent that has two weeks to prepare. Brutal.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline