There are two ways to consider the Red Sox‘s decision, which was made official on Thursday, to not make a qualifying offer to starting pitcher Lucas Giolito after an excellent season in Boston that ended with an unfortunate elbow injury.
Making the qualifying offer for Giolito was not a major gamble by the Red Sox–it was a one-year,
$22 million contract that Giolito could have signed to guarantee he had a job next season, a move he would have made only if he was unsure that he could not land a long-term deal with another club. Putting the QO to Giolito would mean the Red Sox net a fourth-round draft pick if he signs elsewhere, or runs the risk that Giolito would sign it and be on the books for $22 million.
One year of Giolito, who was 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts in 2025, at $22 million is not a bad insurance policy for a Red Sox team that, like everyone across MLB, needs to value pitching depth.
Red Sox Now Poised for No. 2 Starter Trade
In that light, the decision to not offer Giolito the $22 million sounds unwise. But there’s another light in which to look at the decision: This might well mean that the Red Sox are fully committed to the goal–which has been much-rumored in the past month–of bringing in a true No. 2 starter, a guy who can give the team a legitimate top-of-the-rotation 1-2 punch with ace Garrett Crochet.
Maybe that’s finally a deal for the Twins’ Joe Ryan. Maybe it’s a stunner for Tarik Skubal. Maybe it’s a free-agent move for former Giolito and Crochet teammate Dylan Cease.
Either way, clearing out the books of Giolito does also clear out the way to pursue a reliable No. 2 pitcher, with Brayan Bello at No. 3 and plenty of candidates in line to round out the Nos. 4 and 5 spots. Perhaps the decision not to give Giolito the QO just means that the team is not going to nibble at the edges of restocking the rotation, but is prepared for an aggressive move.
Lucas Giolito Money Must Be Spent Elsewhere
If the Red Sox had flirted with keeping Giolito, the possibility remained that he’d return to the rotation and Boston would suck it up with Giolito and Bello as a combo No. 2 starter, a situation that just wouldn’t move the team forward. As good as the Red Sox were in the last four months of the season, no one wants to see them bring back the band intact in 2026.
The money that would have been earmarked for a possible Giolito qualifying offer now can be put in the Red Sox’s free-agent pool. That means more ability to bring back Alex Bregman. It means more room to pursue Kyle Schwarber or another big bat.
Red Sox Set to Replace Lucas Giolito
In the end, that’s probably how things play out. The Red Sox will address the offense, including attempts at keeping Bregman, with free-agent spending. They’ll likely address the No. 2 pitching role with a trade, and probably a painful one.
Where Crochet’s long injury history and the relative youth of Red Sox prospects allowed Boston to pry him from the White Sox for players who were not yet all that familiar to Fenway fans, a deal for Ryan or someone of his ilk is going to cost the Red Sox a package built around, say, outfielder Jarren Duran and pitcher Connelly Early or Payton Tolle.
Red Sox fans have learned to like those guys. But they could be headed elsewhere soon.
But a potential deal will only begin to take shape in the coming days, as the league is preparing for the general manager meetings in Las Vegas. With Thursday’s decision, Giolito almost certainly won’t be back. Now it’s time to get a new No. 2.
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