When he traded two-time first team All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers on August 28, Dallas Cowboys owner and top personnel decision-maker Jerry Jones had to know the deal would not make the team better this season.
That the Cowboys stand at 3-5-1 well outside of the playoff picture cannot be solely attributed to the loss of Parsons with no real replacement, but it certainly hasn’t helped. According to ESPN Analytics, the Cowboys pass rush win rate of 37 percent ranks 19th of the 32 NFL teams.
The Cowboys also rank 17th in sacks with just 20 in nine games and 31st in most passing yards allowed (2,290). The Cowboys 22 aerial touchdowns allowed is also second-most in the NFL.
Not a great situation.
Red Raiders Edge Rusher Predicted for Cowboys
This season may be a lost cause, with the trade deadline now in the rear-view mirror and the Cowboys whiffing on any attempt to bring in a new edge defender. But according to a prediction by Nick Baumgardner of The Athletic, the Cowboys could find their next great edge rusher â or least a good one â in the 2026 draft.
In his first mock draft, published on Thursday, Baumgardner predicts that the Cowboys will pick in the No. 11 spot, and will select Texas Tech Red Raiders edge David Bailey.
“The most polished pass rusher in the class, Bailey (6-foot-3, 250 pounds) is off to a torrid start, with 44 pressures, nine sacks and 25 QB hurries (plus a 28.4 percent win rate),” Baumgardner wrote, rating Bailey as the No. 15 overall prospect in the 2016 draft.
“Any team that takes Bailey will sacrifice a little impact versus the run, and Bailey is not as positionally versatile as other edges in this class, but he can absolutely get it done on third downs,” Baumgardner continued.
Cowboys Have Elite Interior
Of course, the Cowboys’ defense has been nearly as inept against the run as against the pass. On the ground, Dallas has allowed 1,287 yards, ranking 29th in the NFL.
Judged by ESPN’s run stop win rate metric, the Dallas run defense looks better, at 32 percent, seventh in the league.
But stopping the run is primarily the responsibility of the defensive interior, which controls gaps in the middle of the line and stops running lane from opening. The Cowboys did, in fact, address their interior issues at the trade deadline.
“Thanks to their deadline trade with the Jets, the Cowboys now have a truly elite defensive interior, with Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams,” Baumgardner wrote on Thursday. “They still need more off the edge, however. Corner could be another possibility in Round 1, but Bailey (13 sacks, 55 pressures in nine games) has been electric this season.”
Highest-Paid College Defensive Player
Arriving at Texas Tech through the transfer portal after three seasons at Stanford, Bailey leads the Big 12 through nine games with 11 1/2 sacks â also the most in the nation â and 14 tackles for loss.
His stellar performance is not a surprise. Bailey had already graduated from Stanford when he got a call from Red Raiders general manager James Blanchard offering him the most lucrative NIL package for any defensive player in college football â a deal in excess of $3 million, according to an ESPN report.
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