SANTA CLARA – Kyle Shanahan isn’t calling the 49ers overachievers, “because we believed we could do this,” he claimed of their injury-laden 6-3 start.
The 49ers are essentially leading the NFC West trophy hunt by virtue of a win over each division foe, including a 26-23 overtime win at the Los Angeles Rams on Oct. 2.
Sunday brings the Rams (6-2 overall, 0-1 NFC West) into Levi’s Stadium, and any head-to-head tiebreaker can be nullified if they beat the 4 1/2-point underdog 49ers. “We’re in the hunt,” Shanahan added, “but we’ll see how we finish the rest of this half out.”
Last season, without Christian McCaffrey for the first two months, they opened 5-4. Whether or not that team overachieved, the 49ers then went on a 1-6 nosedive for a 6-11 record.
Included in that 2024 freefall was a 12-6 home loss to the Rams on Dec. 12, a game more known for linebacker De’Vondre Campbell’s in-game expulsion. That clinched the season series for the Rams, reversing a trend in which the 49ers swept the regular-season matchups from 2019-22.
Here are five ways the 49ers can win at home, where five of their final eight games will be played:
1. SLOW DOWN STAFFORD
As defensive end Bryce Huff returns from a two-game hiatus from a hamstring strain, he knows his assignment: Pressure Matthew Stafford for a 49ers’ pass rush that ranks last in the NFL and didn’t add a trade-deadline savior, all due respect to the previous week’s additions of Keion White and Clelin Ferrell.
“He’s a Hall of Fame quarterback so I know he’s going to be looking to dice us up any way he can,” Huff said. “So I need to do everything I can to impact him and get to him in the pocket.”
Stafford leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes, including three in a 389-yard outing against the 49ers in last month’s overtime loss. His average of 8.9 yards per pass is second in the league. Not too shabby for a 37-year-old who nearly left in the offseason for the Raiders or Giants and missed a month of camp with a back issue.
“So much for the bad back,” 49ers general manager John Lynch said on KNBR 680-AM. “That might have all been a ruse because he looks pretty healthy to me.”
Stafford is 3-9 all-time against the 49ers, and 2-6 once the Rams traded for him in 2021 before the 49ers could. If the 49ers can’t pressure him, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are going to make life even rougher for Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Green and Upton Stout.
2. WIN TURNOVER BATTLE
The 49ers overcame Stafford’s success last game with timely heroics, notably Alfred Collins’ forced fumble at the 1-yard line late in regulation before their walk-off, fourth-down stop in overtime.
Stafford has had only 2-of-274 passes intercepted and none in the past five games. The 49ers have just one interception over their past 16 games, the NFL’s fewest-ever in such a span.
Linebacker Tatum Bethune, rather than relish in his 16-tackle production last game, turned his attention to takeaways. Said Bethune: “Tackles are a nonnegotiable. I need to do better in the pass game, just getting the ball out and creating turnovers for the defense.”
The 49ers have recovered six fumbles this season (one less than the Rams), and their offense has coughed up the ball just four times, including a Mac Jones fumble last game on a sack.
3. McCAFFREY VS. RAMS
Three years ago, McCaffrey debuted in the 49ers’ starting lineup with three touchdowns (rushing, receiving, passing) in a rout at the Rams. He’s averaged 158 total yards against them in his career, and only three players in the Super Bowl era have enjoyed more dominance against a particular opponent.
No player in the league this season is touching the ball more. He ranks first in rushing attempts (168, for 596 yards) and third in receptions (61, for 626).
McCaffrey, 29, has avoided the 49ers’ injury report since calf tightness was listed for Weeks 1-3, thrusting him into contention for MVP, Offensive Player of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year.
“Christian does a good job taking care of his body and he’ll play as long as he wants to play,” tight end George Kittle said. “… The shelf-life thing is kind of B.S.”
This will be McCaffrey’s first game against the Rams at Levi’s Stadium. The 2022 game predated his trade from Carolina; a seemingly minor calf injury kept him out of the 2023 regular-season finale; and he was on Injured Reserve for last season’s game.
Now McCaffrey is four yards shy of reaching 600 rushing yards and joining a club with Marshall Faulk and Brian Westbrook as the only NFL players with four seasons of 600-plus yards both rushing and receiving. To get much more than those four yards, Kittle noted that the Rams’ defensive front excels at funneling runs into the interior, so perhaps the 49ers’ best lanes are the outside-zone runs rather than their power-run success Oct. 19 against Atlanta.
4. PRESSURE ON KEY PLAYERS
Running back Kyren Williams and new Rams kicker Harrison Mevis will have a lot of pressure to perform.
The 49ers last saw Williams slamming his helmet into the SoFi Stadium turf Oct. 2 after he got stopped for no gain on fourth down, sealing the 49ers’ walk-off win in overtime, not long after he fumbled at the 1-yard line on an Alfred Collins punchout.
For the first time since 2016, the 49ers won’t have linebacker Fred Warner to defend against the Rams, so Tatum Bethune (thigh) and Dee Winters (knees) must be ready for a full-on scheme against them. Williams is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season, albeit against the lowly New Orleans Saints. He’s also sharing time in the backfield with Blake Corum, who fumbled away a Stafford pitch last game against the 49ers.
Also in the Rams’ spotlight is Mevis, who was brought in to supplant Joshua Karty after the Stanford product’s missed 5-of-15 field-goal attempts and three point-after kicks this season. Mevis is a 6-foot, 245-pound NFL novice who’s yet to attempt an NFL kick but did was on Birmingham’s UFL-winning team last year with 49ers backup quarterback Adrian Martinez.
5. MORE MAC MAGIC
This will be Mac Jones’ sixth straight start dating back to his first time through the Rams’ defensive batting order. He was 33-of-49 for 342 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the Oct. 2 overtime matchup.
A month ago, the 49ers hoped Ricky Pearsall or Brandon Aiyuk might be back from knee injuries for this game. They won’t be. But tight end George Kittle will be available, having missed the Oct. 2 game with a hamstring strain.
Left tackle Trent Williams chuckled when reporters advised him that the Rams’ front presents quite a challenge, led by Byron Young and Jared Verse. That isn’t news to Williams. “It’s really hard to keep them off the quarterback,” Williams said. “We have our work cut out for us again, like always, but we look forward to it.”
The Rams have allowed only one first down on 20 plays opponents faced longer than third-and-10.
Verse is seeking revenge for that last defeat, and he didn’t want his mindset softened by birthday wishes this week from his former Florida State teammates on the 49ers, Bethune and Renardo Green.
“They texted me Monday or Tuesday, ‘Hey, happy birthday.’ I say, ‘Hey, thank you. Get off my phone — you’re my opponent. I’m not messing with you this week. You’re my opponent like, simple as that,’” Verse said. “Even your best friends, even your brothers, it’s just different this week.”