The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes enter Week 11 at 5–4, facing a defining AFC West battle against the surging Denver Broncos. For many fans, the territory feels familiar — and for good reason. The last time the Chiefs opened a season 5–4, they turned a shaky start into a furious late-season rally. Now, with playoff positioning tightening and the division on the line, the question is simple: can history repeat itself?
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ Slow Start Mirrors the 2021 Season
The Chiefs’ record entering Week 11 — combined with offensive inconsistency — looks eerily similar to the beginning of the 2021 campaign. That year, Kansas City struggled out of the gate before catching fire, winning 11 of its final 13 games. Their only two losses during that stretch? A 34-31 battle in Cincinnati and a season-ending AFC Championship heartbreaker, both engineered by Lou Anarumo’s Bengals defense.
It was the only time in the past six seasons the Chiefs failed to reach the Super Bowl.
Mahomes isn’t letting the familiar pattern lull anyone into comfort.
Speaking after the 28–21 loss to the Buffalo Bills on November 2, Mahomes made it clear the Chiefs cannot assume a turnaround will simply materialize.
“I mean, we got to get there first,” Mahomes told reporters. “We got a lot of good teams in our division, and they’re playing really good football, and we’re down there at third place right now. And so, we got to get back and get ourselves right. You know, we got to play better football.”
Mahomes pointed directly to Sunday’s matchup as a gut-check moment.
“And right off the bye, we’re playing Denver. And so that’ll be a huge game for us. And so, how can we respond with this bye week, getting ourselves better and self-scouting ourselves so that we can be better and go up against a tough division opponent?”
The AFC West Race & Why Week 11 Is a Must-Win
Just as in 2021, the Chiefs entered their bye sitting in third place behind Denver and Los Angeles after an early loss to the Chargers. Kansas City eventually chipped away at the lead that season, highlighted by a 34–28 overtime win at SoFi Stadium in Week 16 that effectively ended the Chargers’ playoff hopes.
This season, the stakes feel even higher.
Denver sits at 8–2 with seven straight wins and one of the league’s best defenses. The Broncos rank third in scoring (17.3 points allowed per game) and yards (270.7), creating a formula reminiscent of the 2015 Super Bowl–winning Broncos team that relied on defense while Peyton Manning battled through the worst statistical season of his career.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is in an unusual position. Entering Week 11, the Chiefs are outside the playoff picture entirely, sitting eighth in the AFC and losing the tiebreaker to Jacksonville due to their Week 5 head-to-head loss.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs Still Remain a Favorite, Despite Their Current Record
Despite that, sportsbooks still favor Kansas City on the road. FanDuel lists the Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites over Denver, with the moneyline at -205.
Why? Because history says Mahomes and Andy Reid flip the switch — eventually.
But the margin for error is gone.
“If we’re going to want to be that team to win the division and reach the goals that we want, we’re going to have to go through them and beat them,” Broncos pass rusher Nik Bonitto said Monday.
The Chiefs know it, too. Their offense has shown flashes — particularly after Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy returned — but inconsistency has dogged them, including a 27–20 loss to Buffalo in which Mahomes played one of the roughest games of his career.
Still, the Chiefs remain one of the most respected 5–4 teams in NFL history. Their dynasty, experience, and late-season track record keep them in the conversation — but talk only means so much.
Now it comes down to execution.
The Chiefs take on the Broncos Sunday at 3:25 p.m. CT on CBS/KCTV (Channel 5) and 96.5 The Fan.
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