This was the year that Geno Smith was supposed to prove that his first couple of years as the starter for the Seattle Seahawks were not a fluke, but the opposite has been true. In nine games with the Las Vegas Raiders, Smith has thrown 11 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and led the team to a 2-7 record.
The Raiders play a really bad Dallas Cowboys defense on Monday Night Football in Week 11, so if Smith can’t finally post some good numbers, it won’t bode well for his future. At this point, it might not even matter.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell believes that it is more likely that Smith is one-and-done with the Raiders than it is that he comes back for another season.
“It would be a surprise if Smith made it to a second season with the Raiders as the starting quarterback,” Barnwell wrote. “But there are explanations that can be made for his struggles. Smith hasn’t had a healthy Brock Bowers for most of the season, and it’s no surprise that his two best games have come when the team’s franchise tight end was healthy against the Patriots and Jaguars. The Raiders have fielded replacement-level tackles since Kolton Miller went down because of an ankle injury in Week 4. And Chip Kelly’s return to the NFL as Vegas’ offensive coordinator has been a major disappointment, with the Raiders struggling to run or find reliable ways to get their best players the ball.”
Smith Could Have Value As Backup QB
An issue with moving off of Smith is that he has an $18.5 million dead cap hit next season, and the Raiders will have to pay him an additional $8 million if they keep him on the roster after the start of the league year in March.
If the Raiders find a new starting quarterback, Barnwell did point out that Smith has value as a backup.
“The question for the Raiders is whether they’d want to pay an additional $8 million to keep Smith as their backup in 2026,” Barnwell wrote. “He was already a well-established and respected backup before getting his opportunity to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle, and Smith could probably expect to land a contract in that price range if he hit free agency to serve as a backup or potential bridge starter to a young quarterback somewhere else. The Raiders probably would be interested in someone like Smith if they plan to draft a quarterback in 2026 anyway, so it wouldn’t be too foolish to just pay the additional $8 million and hold on to the guy they already know.”
Trading Smith Could Prove Difficult
In an ideal world, the Raiders would be able to trade Smith and reclaim some kind of asset. While Barnwell thinks anything is possible, he doesn’t believe it’s likely that Las Vegas could find a suitor for the quarterback.
“If the Raiders want to try trading Smith, they’d have to get creative,” Barnwell wrote. “Wilder things have happened, but I can’t imagine any team taking on the full $26.5 million owed to Smith next season. Las Vegas could alternately eat some of the $8 million left for Smith to make his deal more palatable and recoup a late-round pick in the process. But that’s never a fun conversation to have with ownership, especially about a player who was prioritized by this new regime.”
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