SANTA CLARA – The 49ers’ win-loss pendulum swung back in their favor Sunday at Arizona. That yielded a “Victory Monday” day off and provided us time to answer social media questions for this Week 12 mailbag, starting with a playoff race preview:
Cam, how many wins will SF need to get into the playoffs and do you see that happening? (@michael_budd)
At 7-4, three more wins might be enough for the 49ers, but four should lock up a playoff berth.
Most important for tiebreaker purposes are NFC games, and only three remain and all are at home: Monday against Carolina (6-5), Dec. 28 against Chicago (7-3) and the Week 18 finale against Seattle (7-3). If they only win two of those, then claim two of three at Cleveland, against Tennessee and at Indianapolis, they should be in good shape.
Since the field expanded to 14 teams in 2020, only two 10-win teams have failed to advance – the 2020 Miami Dolphins, and last season’s Seahawks, who lost on a strength-of-victory tiebreaker with the Los Angeles Rams for the NFC West’s berth.
Nine NFC teams are making playoff pushes, so two will be denied entry. The 49ers have gone four times since 2019, including a Super Bowl run two seasons ago. Their NFC challengers:
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2): As long as the defending Super Bowl champions don’t implode, they should skate to the NFC East title.
Rams (8-2): They’ve won five straight, they’ve split with the Niners, and they pulled out a win Sunday against Seattle for a first-place perch. They went 5-0 against AFC teams with no more on the schedule. Two dates await with lowly Arizona (3-7).
Seahawks (7-3): Four of their last seven are on the road, with a potential winner-take-all game at Levi’s Stadium on January’s opening weekend.
Bears (7-3): The surprising NFC North leaders, with Caleb Williams grooving under first-year coach Ben Johnson, are just 1-2 in divisional games. Tough road trips ahead at Philadelphia, Green Bay and, on Dec. 28, at the 49ers.
Packers (6-3-1): Just 1-0 in NFC North action, they finish with five of seven against division opponents to dictate their fate.
Lions (6-4): They started 4-1, and a three-game homestand is next for a franchise that was last year’s No. 1 NFC seed and the 2023 runner-up to the 49ers.
Bucs (6-4): Heading for a fifth straight NFC South crown, they’re 2-0 in the division and close with four of five against those rivals.
Panthers (6-5): All but one of their remaining games is against one of the NFC contenders above, the lone exception being a visit to New Orleans after a Week 14 bye. They’ve won five of their last seven – all one-score wins.
What percentage of fans were Niners fans (in Arizona)? (@4949centennial)
It’s fair to speculate a 50% showing, but both fan bases donned red or white (or black) jerseys, so it’s not as visually simple as other away games.
Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon told Fox’s crew ahead of the game that “whenever you (host) the Niners, you have to assume you’ll be on silent count,” which is what the New York Giants endured two weeks earlier and the Rams annually encounter at SoFi Stadium.
Kyle Shanahan said of the support after Sunday’s win: “When my wife flies commercial with my son on Saturday morning and tells me that when they land the whole plane’s doing a Niner chant, it makes me feel better telling everyone during meetings two hours later that we probably don’t have to use silent cadence because of my wife’s plane ride. It’s awesome. They do it everywhere, and I haven’t had that at any organization I’ve ever been in.”
Aiyuk. Like what is going on?! (@shawnh95)
Another week will pass without him being cleared to practice, 13 months after he tore multiple ligaments in his right knee. “Brandon’s just week-to-week,” Shanahan said Monday. “When he had such a big injury like that, just waiting until he is fully comfortable to come up and start practicing.”
Aiyuk hasn’t spoken to the media about his recovery this season, nor has he been seen in practice warmups the past month after being very visible in August and September.
They should also put Nick Martin on the field more often and give him more reps. (@sf49erbob)
Tatum Bethune’s high ankle sprain, not to mention Fred Warner’s season-ending ankle repair, does not put Martin on the field. In fact, their starting linebackers the next couple of games could be Curtis Robinson, Dee Winters and Luke Gifford. Martin has been groomed for the weak-side role, which is where Winters has been entrenched all season.
Martin, a third-round pick, just got his first 14 defensive snaps last game, after being a healthy scratch the first five games and relegated to only special teams the four prior to Sunday’s defensive debut.
How should the defense approach Bryce Young after he caught fire yesterday? (@paulmateo707)
You mean a defense that just allowed a single-game NFL record 47 completions to Jacoby Brissett, who even more remarkably completed 82.5% of his throws against the 49ers’ soft coverage? Shanahan applauded the undermanned defense for holding strong (enough) the first three quarters with a still-anemic pass rush.
Young, the 2023 draft’s top pick, is just 12-26 as a starter with 40 touchdowns, 26 interceptions and 22 fumbles. But the 5-foot-10 “Carolina Reaper” indeed torched Atlanta in Sunday’s overtime win for 448 yards (31-of-45, three touchdowns, no interceptions). He also was sacked five times, so perhaps the 49ers can summon Monday Night Football magic to extinguish his hot arm.