By LEE KEATH, Associated Press
CAIRO (AP) — The U.N. Security Council has backed the United States’ ambitious plan for the future of the Gaza Strip. How and when it will be carried out remain largely unknown.
In a twist unimaginable across the tumultuous history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the plan would mean President Donald Trump becomes the de facto ruler of Gaza. The territory remains devastated by Israel’s campaign to eliminate Hamas after its Oct. 7, 2023, attack that sparked the war.
An international body known as the Board of Peace, chaired by Trump, is to govern Gaza and oversee reconstruction under a two-year, renewable U.N. mandate. An armed International Stabilization Force is to keep security and ensure the disarming of Hamas, a key demand of Israel.
Major questions hang over nearly every part of the plan and the timeframe for implementation. In the meantime, nearly all Palestinians remain displaced and dependent on humanitarian aid, Hamas retains significant control over nearly half of Gaza and the rebuilding of the territory has barely begun.
Challenges at every step
Some talks over the next steps have taken place behind the scenes among the U.S., Israel, Qatar, Egypt and other countries. But serious negotiations have not begun because Israel and Hamas remain in the first phase of the ceasefire deal that came into effect in October. Hamas is still required to hand over the bodies of the last three hostages.
The U.N. resolution passed Monday gave the plan international legitimacy. That opens the door for Arab and Muslim-majority nations to participate, particularly by contributing troops to the ISF. The U.S. is hoping that the more those countries are involved, the more palatable the international rule will be for Gaza’s more than 2 million people.
But the Palestinian public’s acceptance is far from certain. Without it, the Board of Peace risks becoming seen as a foreign occupation working on behalf of Israel, further thwarting their dream of self-determination and statehood.
The plan gives Palestinians almost no voice in governing Gaza. Because of Israel’s fierce opposition, it doesn’t promise statehood, offering only a vague reference that it might one day be possible. It also gives only an ambiguous timetable for reconstruction to begin and for the Israeli military to withdraw from the around 50% of the Gaza Strip that it still holds since the ceasefire began.
Will disarmament happen?
Disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza are the keystones to the whole plan. But there’s no detail on how that will happen.
So far, Hamas has not agreed to disarm. In a statement after the U.N. resolution’s passage, Hamas said the fate of its weapons is connected to ensuring a path to the end of the Israeli occupation and the creation of a Palestinian state.
The International Stabilization Force is tasked with ensuring disarmament and the destruction of Hamas’ military infrastructure. The ISF will also oversee a Palestinian police force, made up of vetted members trained by Egypt and Jordan.
A number of nations have been cited as possible contributors to the ISF, including Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. But none has committed to sending troops yet, and Israel opposes Turkey participating in the force.
They are unlikely to want their soldiers to take Hamas’ weapons by force. Hamas warned that trying to do so would turn the ISF “into a party to the conflict in favor of the occupation.”
Hamas is under heavy pressure, particularly from Qatar and Egypt, to find a compromise. One possible idea is a “decommissioning” – handing the arsenal over to the ISF for safekeeping — which Hamas could argue is not a permanent surrender of its right to armed resistance.
Without disarmament, much of the rest of the plan could stall. Israel’s troop withdrawal is linked to the pace of Hamas demilitarization and the deployment of the ISF. Reconstruction is also unlikely to happen in most of Gaza unless Hamas disarms.
Many Palestinians fear the end result will be a partition of Gaza between an Israeli-controlled zone, where some reconstruction might take place, and the rest, where almost all of the population of more than 2 million live with little rebuilding.
Who will make up the Board of Peace?
Trump has said the board will be made up of “distinguished leaders” from other countries, including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, and that its members will be named in the coming weeks.
But who they will be is unknown, and even Blair’s participation has not been confirmed.
The U.N. resolution gives the Board complete say in Gaza with powers over the ISF, reconstruction and economic recovery. The Board is also to oversee a “technocratic, apolitical committee of competent Palestinians” who will run the day-to-day civil service in Gaza.
Who are these independent Palestinians?
The members of the Palestinian committee are to have no connection to either Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, which currently administers scattered parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Israel has rejected any role for the PA in Gaza.
The plan doesn’t specify who will select the members, but that likely will fall to the Board of Peace. Israel will want to have a strong say in who can be included.
In an online post, Palestinian political analyst and pollster Khalil Shikaki said the committee should be picked through “an all Palestinian” process to boost its support, consulting among political factions, trade syndicates, local leaders and women’s and youth organizations.
But if the Board and the committee are seen as a tool for the U.S. or Israel, prominent Palestinians may be reluctant to join. In its statement Monday, Hamas denounced the “international guardianship” that the U.N. resolution places on Gaza, saying it aims to further Israel’s interests.
What is all this leading to?
The plan emphasizes two goals for Gaza – demilitarization and reconstruction. Anything beyond that remains largely blank.
The U.N. resolution offers the possibility of the Palestinian Authority eventually taking control of Gaza if it carries out a slate of internal reforms to the satisfaction of the Board of Peace – everything from fighting corruption, increasing efficiency to holding elections.
The Palestinian Authority welcomed the U.N. resolution in a statement Monday and said it was prepared to step in to govern Gaza. But Israeli opposition raises doubts whether that will ever be allowed to happen.
Under pressure from Arab allies, the United States inserted a reference to Palestinian statehood in the U.N. resolution.
But it remains only a vague nod. It states that if the Palestinian Authority “faithfully” carries out reforms and if Gaza redevelopment advances, “conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”
The lack of a clear path to self-determination threatens to complicate every other step. For example, Shikaki wrote, without a path to statehood, “disarmament will be seen as capitulation; with it, demobilization can be framed as part of national strategy.”
For much of the population, the priority is to see reconstruction and a revival of Gaza’s economy so families have livelihoods. If that comes, it could paper over reluctance toward international rule, at least for a time. If it doesn’t or if Palestinians see no progress toward self-determination, resentment is likely to mount.
The potential for chaos is high with the multiple divisions within Gaza. Already, the territory has Hamas, several Israeli-backed armed gangs that oppose the group and the Israeli military itself. Add to those a Palestinian police force, international troops, Palestinians who join the administration and those who oppose it – and the scene becomes even more volatile.