It’s a hard pill to swallow for Vikings fans, but J.J. McCarthy has been pretty much downright terrible in 2025.
It’s not just because of his truly abysmal showing on Sunday in Chicago. His tape as a whole is littered with a very major concern; his ability to hit open wide receivers. There is film all over X and other social medias, and is worth a look for any football fan out there.
It’s not just the film, that shows it. Of course, the film doesn’t lie, but metrics aren’t usually completely truthful. However, when you marry those two together regarding McCarthy, they both validate what the other is saying.
J.J. McCarthy’s Accuracy Concerns
GettyVikings QB J.J. McCarthy was consistently off the mark in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
Per Pro Football Reference, J.J. McCarthy’s accuracy problems that jump out on tape match his on-target percentage. His on-target percentage is 59.9%, easily dead last of the 35 qualifying quarterbacks.
The next man in front of him is the Las Vegas Raiders‘ Geno Smith, sitting at 65.1%. This means McCarthy is the most inaccurate signal caller in the NFL by a mile.
For reference, the league average on-target percentage is 74.5%. Of course, this makes the 22-year-old wildly below average when attempting to make an accurate pass. To support this metric, McCarthy also of course leads the NFL in bad-throw percentage at 24.1%. This is only 0.1% in front of his draft classmate Michael Penix Jr. of the Falcons at 24.0%.
Advanced Data Paints the Worst Starting QB in the NFL
GettyQuarterback J.J. McCarthy of the Minnesota Vikings is heavily implied as the worst starting signal caller in the NFL by advanced metrics.
Checking J.J. McCarthy’s advanced metrics with NFL Pro is a doozy. Here is a quick list of reference for them (out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks):
- 61.7 passer rating (last)
- 8 interceptions (T-4th most)
- 6.0 passing yards per attempt: (31st)
- 52.9% completion percentage (last)
- -7.3% completion percentage over expected (33rd)
- -61.1 passing EPA (33rd)
It gets even worse when you remember that McCarthy has only played 5 games. Meaning that he has only 5 starts and has the 4th-most interceptions in the NFL.
J.J. McCarthy needs to settle down a lot. Even head coach Kevin O’Connell talked about it with Paul Allen recently. The kid needs to settle down and also hone in on his mechanics to hit these throws.
Take a look at what these metrics are paired with:
- 17.1% deep throw percentage (1st)
- Facing blitzes 33.5% of the time (5th-most)
- Pressured on 39.6% of snaps (8th-highest)
It’s evident in the film and in the numbers that J.J. McCarthy’s brain is moving a million miles and hour during the play. To his credit, he seems poised and confident pre-snap. All of the evidence points towards different happenings in the middle of a rep.
J.J. McCarthy obviously isn’t beyond saving. He’s only five games into his career. However, things need to change quickly. Every team wants to win it all, but the Super Bowl isn’t really in sight for this 4-6 Vikings team.
The Vikings need to choose to continue to roll throughout the rest of the season with J.J. McCarthy, or see who they have in Minnesota Golden Gopher legend Max Brosmer.
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