The prevailing opinion among MLB analysts is that the Chicago Cubs will attempt to make a big splash in the free agent pitching pool this offseason.
But while their first signing may have technically landed a sizeable piece, it’s the kind of move that hardly registers as more than a shallow ripple.
On Nov. 13, the Cubs signed free agent pitcher Sam Mettert, a 6-foot-5, 225-pound St. John’s University graduate whose name was not called during the MLB Draft in July. In a post to X (formerly Twitter) highlighting the move, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that Mettert was considering graduate school when the Cubs’ offer was made.
“It’s a ‘prospect’ signing, not a ‘get-this-guy-in-the-big-league-bullpen’ signing,” wrote Brett Taylor of Bleacher Nation.
And not an “impress the fan base” signing either, judging by some of the reaction to Rogers’ post.
“Typical move by the Cubs. They have to be the cheapest organization in sports,” lamented one respondent.
“There they go again………perusing the clearance sections again for ‘talent,’” wrote another.
MLB Analysts Expect Chicago to Target Top Free Agent Pitching
While the signing of Mettert may be more eyebrow-raising than headline-grabbing, analysts overwhelmingly agree that the Cubs’ real offseason moves will revolve around pitching. Speculation is similarly one-sided in the belief that the Cubs will not re-sign outfielder Kyle Tucker, nor will they chase a major offensive piece in free agency.
Instead, the team is expected to beef up the rotation and deepen the pitching staff.
On the rotation front, two names dominate the chatter. First is Framber Valdez, the Houston Astros left-hander viewed by many as the top free-agent starter available. One projection has the Cubs signing him to a four-year, $114 million deal. With left-hander Shota Imanaga’s future uncertain, and veteran Justin Steele rehabbing, the Cubs are in rotation need mode, and if Valdez’s market stalls, the Cubs could pounce.
The other leading target is Dylan Cease, a former Cubs draft pick now a free agent after his stint with San Diego. He’s projected to command upwards of $180 million in a multiyear deal, and the Cubs are reportedly undeterred by the qualifying-offer complication. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Cease’s raw stuff – high-octane strikeouts, big fastball, big break – has proven to be successful in Wrigley Field.
The Cubs want a frontline starter, and they believe they can afford one now that they’re not chasing big outfielder extensions. By focusing on pitching, the front office appears to be sticking to a long-term blueprint of developing offense internally while buying pitching externally.
Undrafted Free Agent Signing Could Be a Future Bullpen Arm For the Cubs
With those heavyweight targets looming, the Mettert signing is almost a footnote – but footnotes have a way of becoming interesting.
The 22-year-old right-hander from Indianapolis went undrafted, worked out at Tread Athletics, and reportedly touched 98–99 mph on the gun. His college numbers, however, were rough (a 9.55 ERA in his senior year at St. John’s) and command remains an issue.
So where might he land? The most realistic scenario: a long-haul project bullpen arm.
The Cubs seem comfortable giving him time in the minors to harness his velocity and refine his delivery. If he can clean up the walks and maintain strikeout upside, he could emerge in 2–3 years as a late-game fire-baller. But don’t bet on him being part of the 2026 rotation mix.
At this moment, Mettert’s signing serves more as a signal that the Cubs are still looking for pitching and are willing to swing at upside. The real headline moves will come when the big names land. Until then, keep an eye on the rotation board and treat Mettert as the “hopeful sleeper” more than the headline act.
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