LAS VEGAS — What’s luck, what’s skill, all merges to oneness, Virgil wrote more than 2,000 years ago. Nothing is as obnoxious, F. Scott Fitzgerald penned in 1938, as other people’s luck.
According to Hunter S. Thompson, luck is a very thin wire between survival and disaster, and not many people can keep their balance on it.
Especially when a football zebra tosses a flag when nothing’s there or disregards a blatant face-mask grab that turns a tailback’s coconut 180 degrees.
Each happened within 24 hours of each other last weekend, the former occurring late in the Lions’ tilt Sunday night in Philadelphia.
On third down, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts’ pass to A.J. Brown sailed out of bounds. Trailing by seven points, the Lions needed a chance to muster a long drive.
Didn’t happen. Field judge Lo Van Pham threw the yellow beanie at Lions cornerback Rock Ya-Sin. First down, Eagles. Game over. Philly wins 16-9. It infuriated ex-NFL receiver and NBC analyst Cris Collinsworth.
“Oh, come on! Come on! That is terrible! That is an absolutely terrible call that’s going to decide this football game!”
Slow-motion replay revealed simple and equal hand-tapping between the two players, perhaps a slight separating nudge by Brown.
“If you want to make a call on that, it’s an offensive foul,” Collinsworth said. “Wow!”
The point here isn’t egregious officiating. It’s about luck. Is luck part of skill or skill part of luck?
A team is most fortunate when it scores 10 points against the Packers and wins, or 16 against the Lions and triumphs. Those are the Eagles’ last two weeks. They’re 7-1 in one-score games this season.
What’s more, three of the league’s bottom-four defenses in total yards allowed occupy the Eagles’ NFC East; the Giants (375, 29th), Cowboys (381, 30th) and Commanders (387, 31st).
The Eagles, whose 3½-game division lead is the league’s largest, are 2-1 so far against those foes, with 10 touchdowns in those three games.
On Sunday, they take a four-game winning streak into Dallas, which is on a short week.
In luck, the Cowboys are underwater at -1.2, among the bottom quarter of the league. At TeamRankings, the Broncos are first (2.1), Eagles second (2.0) and Bears third (1.9).
Editor/scribe Lewis Lapham, 81, called it “Dame Fortune” in the summer 2016 issue of his namesake quarterly that’s solely devoted to luck, where we nabbed the lines from Virgil, Thompson and Fitzgerald.
In the last 10 Super Bowls, 12 of those 20 teams finished their seasons ranked among the league’s top-five luckiest squads.
Right now, the Eagles are balanced perfectly on that very thin wire. And it might be foolish to bet against them.
Best bet
EAGLES at COWBOYS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 8-2/7-3; Cowboys 4-5-1/5-5.
Pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 17.
Play: Eagles -3.
How Miech’s plays fared
Last week Overall
Best bet 0-1 5-6
Top plays 2-1 17-16
All plays 9-6 70-94
7-point tease 13-2 110-52-2
Top plays
PATRIOTS at BENGALS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Patriots by 8½. Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 9-2/7-4; Bengals 3-7/3-7.
Outlook: The soft slate continues for the Pats, who own the NFL’s easiest schedule. Based on last week, this is the largest disparity between two Week 12 squads. In their last four home games, Cincy has yielded an average of 39 points.
Pick: Patriots 31, Bengals 13.
Play: Patriots -8½.
SEAHAWKS at TITANS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Seahawks by 13½. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 7-3/8-2; Titans 1-9/4-6.
Outlook: There’s no let-up to the Titans’ slippery-slope season. They own the 31st-ranked home offense (.302 points per play), while the Seahawks have the second-rated away defense (.277 PPP).
Pick: Seahawks 26, Titans 10.
Play: Seahawks -13½.
BROWNS at RAIDERS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Raiders by 3½. Total: 36½.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 2-8/4-6; Raiders 2-8/3-6-1.
Outlook: QB Shedeur Sanders gets the nod for the visitors, becoming the 42nd different Cleveland starter since 1999. On the other side, Geno Smith owns a No. 30 passer rating of 80.9. Both defenses score to clear this low total.
Pick: Browns 21, Raiders 20.
Play: Over 36½.
Other plays
STEELERS at BEARS
Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 6-4/5-5; Bears 7-3/6-4.
Outlook: Our computer (26-23) and math (26-25) models favor the Steelers. In cleanup action Sunday, QB Mason Rudolph went 12-for-16 for 127 yards and a TD. QB Aaron Rodgers (left wrist) is 25-5 lifetime against the Bears.
Pick: Steelers 20, Bears 13.
Play: Steelers +3.
JETS at RAVENS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Ravens by 13½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 2-8/6-4; Ravens 5-5/4-6.
Outlook: QB Tyrod Taylor, 36 years old and 28-29-1 as a starter, gets the nod for the Jets. He has 71 career TD passes and 32 picks. Their defense has collected a single turnover all season. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 3-0 since returning, all on the road.
Pick: Ravens 28, Jets 10.
Play: Ravens -13½.
GIANTS at LIONS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Lions by 10½. Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 2-9/6-5; Lions 6-4/6-4.
Outlook: Lions boss Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 10, and the team produced 546 total yards in a wipeout at Washington. Last week? Just 317 in a loss at Philly. Detroit is hiccuping, but the Giants are in worse shape.
Pick: Lions 23, Giants 10.
Play: Lions -10½.
VIKINGS at PACKERS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Packers by 6½. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 4-6/4-6; Packers 6-3-1/3-7.
Outlook: With such an inconsistent offense, the Packers must rely on their No. 1 home-field defense, which allows a meager .245 PPP. In his last two games, both defeats, Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy is 36-for-74 with two TDs and four picks.
Pick: Packers 26, Vikings 10.
Play: Packers -6½.
COLTS at CHIEFS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Chiefs by 3½. Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 8-2/6-3-1; Chiefs 5-5/5-5.
Outlook: The Colts have won five of six to take a two-game lead over the Jaguars in the AFC South, and all angles of Indy’s profile favor it over the Chiefs. This century, Indy is 6-2 in K.C. with an average score of 26-23.
Pick: Colts 27, Chiefs 20.
Play: Colts +3½.
JAGUARS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 6-4/5-4-1; Cardinals 3-7/5-5.
Outlook: Figures target this as the week’s most lopsided affair, with the Jags pounding the rough-running Cards. Bhayshul Tuten and Travis Etienne (147 combined rushing yards, three TDs) destroyed the Chargers on Sunday.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Cardinals 10.
Play: Jaguars -3.
FALCONS at SAINTS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Saints by 1½. Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 3-7/4-5-1; Saints 2-8/3-7.
Outlook: The Saints shoot for their first consecutive wins of the season. Rookie QB Tyler Shough averaged a sterling 10.4 yards per throw two weeks ago at Carolina, with two TDs and no picks. Atlanta’s pass defense is slipping.
Pick: Saints 23, Falcons 21.
Play: Saints -1½.
BUCCANEERS at RAMS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: Rams by 6½. Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 6-4/5-5; Rams 8-2/7-3.
Outlook: The Rams have been tripped up only once in five home games. In their five-game winning streak, QB Matthew Stafford has thrown 155 passes, with 16 TDs and zero picks. L.A. has lost just two fumbles and collected 11 turnovers.
Pick: Rams 31, Bucs 13.
Play: Rams -6½.
PANTHERS at 49ERS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 6-5/7-4; 49ers 7-4/6-5.
Outlook: The Panthers have won five of their last seven in the Bay Area. RB Rico Dowdle (304 total yards, three TDs) has keyed their last three games. However, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey trumps that with 390 total yards and five TDs.
Pick: 49ers 24, Panthers 20.
Play: Panthers +7.
Byes: Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Dolphins.