Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 3-7. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
The weather forecast for Seattle is exactly what you would expect for the final Saturday in November, with temperatures in the 40s, rain possible and clouds covering the skies from Puget Sound to the Cascades.
But that’s not the backdrop of interest in advance of the Oregon-Washington feud.
To a greater extent than any recent collision, the 118th installment will provide clarity on the competitive balance in the Pacific Northwest.
Were the Kalen DeBoer years an outlier?
Has Washington narrowed the gap since last season?
Does Oregon remain a full level bigger, tougher and better than the program it has dominated for most of the past two decades?
The Ducks have won 16 of the past 21 meetings, with all of Washington’s five victories coming within two condensed windows:
– The two-year upturn under Chris Petersen (2016-17) in which the Huskies won 22 games and reached the College Football Playoff and Fiesta Bowl.
– The two-year upturn under DeBoer (2022-23) in which the Huskies won 25 games and reached the College Football Playoff and the Alamo Bowl.
Otherwise, this rivalry barely qualifies as such. Of Oregon’s 16 series victories in the past two decades, 12 were by at least two touchdowns.
And the Ducks show no signs of regression. They are perfectly built for the era of NIL and revenue sharing, a factory of talent acquisition and player development under coach Dan Lanning that has few equals in major college football.
The Huskies have not shown the same resource allocation and structural prowess, in part because of the coaching change, from DeBoer to Jedd Fisch, that derailed their mid-decade momentum.
We will never know how the landscape might look if Oregon had beaten UW in one or both of the 2023 epics, potentially eliminating DeBoer from consideration for the Alabama job. (Washington won both the Seattle duel and the rematch in the Pac-12 championship by three points.)
But the coaching change set UW back, while Lanning’s continued presence in Eugene has fueled a 23-2 record since the start of last season. Alone among the West Coast schools, the Ducks have flourished in the Big Ten, dominating the line of scrimmage, managing the travel and treating opponents with competitive disdain.
Fisch didn’t have the talent to compete with Oregon last season, as he attempted to rebuild a roster gutted by post-DeBoer attrition (to the NFL and the transfer portal). The Huskies fell behind early in Eugene and never recovered.
The personnel and product have improved on Montlake — at least in relation to the average Big Ten opponent: UW was 4-5 in conference play last season and is 5-3 this fall.
But has UW gained ground on Oregon specifically?
Because the schools compete for both recruits and attention, regional supremacy is arguably more important for the Huskies than their fate within the broader conference race.
Beating Oregon matters more than a few spots in the Big Ten standings.
Success in the post-modern era is rooted in talent acquisition, which is based on internal (revenue sharing) and external (NIL) funding. The latter hinges on community enthusiasm and engagement.
There is no better way for the Huskies to energize their constituents — and eventually convert that energy into the dollars that lead to the victories that create a virtuous circle — than by beating Oregon.
That’s doubly true given the disparate positions within the success cycle: The Huskies are building; the Ducks are built.
Even a close loss Saturday afternoon would provide a building block for the Fisch era.
But a lopsided loss? Nothing would be more deflating for a program trying to regain its pre-Big Ten momentum and reclaim its regional high ground.
To the picks …
Season record: 66-73-1 (47.5%)Five-star special: 6-7
(All times Pacific)
Utah (-12.5) at KansasKickoff: Friday at 9 a.m. on ESPNComment: A must-win for the Utes following their great escape against Kansas State, and it comes against a host that has lost four of its past five. Our hunch: Kyle Whittingham has the Utes fully locked in after a series of ugly film sessions. Pick: Utah
San Diego State (-1.5) at New MexicoKickoff: Friday 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports NetworkComment: The Aztecs advance to the Mountain West championship with a victory — and perhaps with a loss — while the Lobos are in the thick of the race, as well. This is a rare occasion in which SDSU coach Sean Lewis doesn’t have a tactical advantage over his counterpart. Jason Eck can scheme with anybody. Pick: New Mexico
Boise State (-3.5) at Utah StateKickoff: Friday at 1 p.m. on CBSComment: Both teams — yes, even the Aggies — have paths into the MW championship. Utah State secured a bowl berth last weekend with the come-from-behind win at Fresno State and is playing with house money. That’s a nice position when combined with the home field. Pick: Utah State
Arizona (-2.5) at Arizona StateKickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on FoxComment: The first Territorial Cup since 2014 in which both combatants have at least seven wins — they have eight, in fact — should produce a riveting affair. Turnovers will be pivotal, of course, but so will touchdowns in the Red Zone, which has been an issue for both teams all season. The money is flowing to the Wildcats, who opened as 1.5-point favorites. Pick: Arizona
Ohio State (-10) at MichiganKickoff: 9 a.m. on FoxComment: The Buckeyes have a CFP berth locked up and are playing to avenge the past four years of agony. (A spot in the Big Ten championship is secondary.) Michigan has a playoff bid at stake, but how will an offense that sputtered most of the season fare against the most dominant defense the sport has seen in years? Pick: Ohio State
UCF (+17.5) at BYUKickoff: 10 a.m. on ESPN2Comment: Simple formula and easy task for the Cougars: Defeat an opponent that hasn’t come close to winning on the road this season, and they are in the Big 12 championship. Our forecast for Provo: delirium. Pick: BYU
Oregon (-6.5) at WashingtonKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBSComment: Washington has struggled mightily against top-tier defenses (Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin), and Oregon certainly possesses a first-rate unit. Meanwhile, the Ducks have been a bit erratic offensively, in part due to their injured playmakers. Put another way: First team to 30 wins and, if we’re being honest, 24 might be more than enough. Pick: Oregon
LSU (+10) at OklahomaKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABCComment: An Oklahoma victory would have major implications for the CFP field, locking up a fourth berth for the SEC and leaving Alabama as the conference’s fifth possible participant. The Tigers have struggled to score recently, an ominous sign against the best defense this side of Columbus. Pick: Oklahoma
Oregon State (-13.5) at Washington StateKickoff: 3:30 p.m. on The CWComment: Weeks later, the Hotline remains baffled by WSU’s woeful performance in Corvallis. (It stands as Oregon State’s only FBS victory of the season.) Difficult to envision a repeat, especially with a bowl bid at stake. But to cover that sizable spread, the offense must function at a higher level. Pick: Oregon State
UCLA (+21.5) at USCKickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBCComment: The massive betting line is both surprising for this series and fully justified given USC’s firepower and UCLA’s late-season regression to its early-season form. This is typically a high-scoring affair, which makes the Over (59.5) more attractive than the point spread. Pick: UCLA
SMU (-13.5) at CalKickoff: 5 p.m. on ESPN2Comment: Will the regular-season finale for Cal be the final home game for quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele? How will the Bears respond to the dismissal of coach Justin Wilcox? Of note: The Mustangs should know their ACC championship fate before kickoff (eliminated or win-and-in), which adds complication to any assessment. Pick: SMU
Notre Dame (-32.5) at StanfordKickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPNComment: The Cardinal have been surprisingly stout at home, but this is a next-level challenge against an opponent that has won nine in a row and is playing for a berth in the CFP. In some regards, it’s strength-on-strength: Stanford’s run defense is No. 25 nationally (113.1 yards per game), while Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is the best tailback in the country. Pick: Stanford
Straight-up winners: Utah, New Mexico, Utah State, Arizona, BYU, Oregon, Oklahoma, Washington State, USC, SMU and Notre Dame
Five-star special: BYU. The Cougars are poised to dominate from the first play to the last. UCF has given no indication over three months that it’s capable of mounting serious resistance.
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