With the battle over Proposition 50 in the rearview, there is renewed attention on the campaign to replace the ballot measure’s biggest champion, Gov. Gavin Newsom.
To that end, two new entrants – Tom Steyer and Rep. Eric Swalwell – have joined an already crowded race for the state’s top job at a time when polling reflects a wide open contest.
First, former presidential candidate, climate activist, and businessman Tom Steyer threw his hat in the ring last week.
Steyer’s entrance comes after he spent millions on pro-Prop. 50 ads, hinting that he is willing to use his fortune to boost himself in a race where no other candidates have a particularly strong fundraising apparatus.
Notably, Steyer’s campaign launch video was, in the words of Politico, “more antagonistic to Sacramento Democrats than to his usual nemesis, President Donald Trump.”
In it, he positioned himself as an outsider, unafraid to shake things up, and committed to both lowering the cost of living, making corporations pay “their fair share,” while also keeping California a hub for businesses.
Contradictory as those last two may seem, in a race with no true front runner, Steyer’s ability to self-fund, reputation as a climate warrior, and campaign experience should position him well.
Moreover, Steyer’s status as a non-politician and successful businessman may prove beneficial at a time when voters are increasingly frustrated with politicians and are looking for officials who can actually get things done.
Conversely, Steyer will have to deal with attacks tying the climate policies he’s long pushed as being responsible for high utility costs he derided.
Barely 24 hours after Steyer, Rep. Eric Swalwell joined the fray.
The seven-term Congressman has built a name for himself as an extremely vocal opponent of Donald Trump, including helping to lead Trump’s second impeachment.
Announcing his candidacy on Jimmy Kimmel, Swalwell “decried how Californians have been disproportionately targeted” by the White House, and stressed that California “needs a fighter and a protector.”
Given that Swalwell currently finds himself in the administration’s crosshairs, it’s extremely likely that combatting Donald Trump will play a large role in his nascent campaign.
He was recently referred to the Department of Justice for potential criminal charges based on allegations of mortgage and tax fraud, making him the fourth high-profile Democrat to face nearly identical allegations.
Like Steyer, Swalwell also pointed to affordability, taking a page from a playbook which Democrats used to their advantage in recent off-year elections.
That message figures to work well in California, where the cost of living has surged and there is a massive split between Silicon Valley billionaires and everyday residents struggling to make ends meet.
Unlike Steyer though, Swalwell will need to hit the ground running in terms of fundraising, but being on the receiving end of Trump’s fire and his position as a Congressman should help open doors – and wallets.
Taken together, the relatively late entrance of two additional candidates underscores just how unsettled the race remains as the primary nears.
Long considered a front runner, former Rep. Katie Porter’s standing took a huge hit due to the release of two videos demeaning a staffer and berating a journalist.
Indeed, after leading the pack in August polling, Porter (11%) now trails GOP candidate and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (13%) according to the latest Berkeley IGS poll.
And while that is essentially a statistical tie, it is a 9-point swing against Porter from August, when she led Bianco 17% to 10%.
Further, Porter’s favorability ratings have also suffered.
Ahead of the 2024 Senate primary, Porter’s net-favorability rating was plus-18, per Berkeley’s poll at the time.
Yet in the most recent survey, she has a net-favorability of minus-7, a drastic decline coinciding with the release of those videos.
Notably, U.S. Senator Alex Padilla received 12% which would have been good for 2nd place, but days after the poll was released, he declared that he would not be running.
Crucially, the share of voters saying they are undecided has risen from 38% in August to 44% now, suggesting that a considerable opportunity exists for whichever candidate can make their mark.
It is worth noting that while the Berkeley poll included Steyer – who received just 1% – it was conducted prior to his official entrance, and before voters see the $2 million of campaign ads he’s taken out.
Similarly, the impact of Swalwell, who was not included in the poll, remains to be seen.
He has a large platform due to his prolific use of social media as well as the audience afforded to him as a high-profile Democrat in Congress who finds himself under fire from a president many Californians loathe.
Likewise, it was reported in late October that polling had circulated testing Swalwell against Porter “emphasizing his opening to run as a moderate alternative,” with reports suggesting that the results were largely positive.
Finally, there are lingering questions surrounding Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
The two have overlapping bases of support and are seemingly siphoning off support from each other, but if one dropped out, the other would have a genuine chance to advance from the top-two primary.
There is also the very real chance that the field continues to grow, with rumors that Attorney General Rob Bonta or Rick Caruso could jump in.
Ultimately, whether the two newcomers, Steyer and Swalwell, can separate from the pack given their respective advantages in money and national stage, remains to be seen. But, right now, it’s clear that none of the dozen or so other candidates have done enough to preclude that option.
Put another way, the failure of any candidate to distinguish themselves has set up what should be a frantic 2026 in California politics.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democeatic political consultant.