LAS VEGAS — Great pal Mike hails from Kansas, attended Kansas State and, thankfully, transferred to San Diego State, where he landed in my fraternity.
Unbelievably, he possessed a VHS copy of the 1983 Houston-Louisville national semifinal in Albuquerque, waged just two years earlier.
An epic, electric affair, full of ridiculous dunks, the best college hoops game I have ever witnessed. I recall frothing at the mouth when we reviewed it.
“Yes,” he wrote me in a text a few days ago, when I asked for confirmation, “we both frothed.”
Clyde Drexler, Hakeem Olajuwon and Phi Slama Jama, Houston’s roundball frat. Louisville’s Milt Wagner Jr., Lancaster Gordon and the McCrays, Rodney and Scooter, were no match, losing 94-81.
Reid Gettys rode Houston’s pine and, incredibly, would enter our sphere, playing basketball for a rival SDSU frat. However, rules barred D-I players from partaking in this Greek intramural league.
We needed proof, I recall, video of him playing in this tourney and of him playing for Houston; thus, Mike’s tape served as Exhibit A.
Mike knows hoops. So when he recommended Kansas State overs, as he did recently in a group text, it warranted attention.
The total of the Cats’ next game was posted 163½; they beat Cal 99-96. Easy cash. With a flurry of distractions, I forgot about their next game against Tulsa. With a 159½ total, Wildcats win 84-83.
On Nov. 20, the Kansas State-Mississippi State total was 165. Everyone on the thread invested in over positions.
And I proceeded to watch the very worst 10 college basketball minutes of my life.
Pass the aspirin
This is about excavating early-season college basketball edges. Typically, I focus on futures action, hedging when and where appropriate. A full-year cycle keeps a punter busy with options in many sports.
Specific game action, like Kansas State overs, is rare for me. But they entered the fray, courtesy of Mike.
That game’s start was horrendous, which is why I typically do not watch; I abhor sweating and don’t care for in-game wagering. The bunnies missed at both ends were worse than a Greek IM game.
Nearly seven minutes into this debacle, it was 9-9, extrapolation over 40 minutes that spelled doom for the bet. The errant tips, missed free throws, bad passes and horrible decision-making were all beyond brutal.
A headache began thrumming. I turned the channel on the TV in my sportsbook cubicle, focused on writing. Ninety minutes later, pals congratulated Mike on another Kansas State over; it had won 98-77.
“Nice way,” another pal, in Orlando, added to that group chat early Friday, “to start my day!”
Mike has been on Cats overs from the start, as five guys, he said, transferred in with a combined 5,000 career points. In fact, P.J. Haggerty, Nate Johnson, Marcus Johnson, Khamari McGriff and Abdi Bashir Jr. came in with 4,175 points.
Haggerty, a 6-4 guard from Texas, is the spark plug, since he leads the nation with a 28-point average.
Teasin’ fool
Now is when I sift through pertinent metrics to spot dynamic squads who have sweet value, before the general public or odds-
makers can tinker with them.
Exactly one year ago, I unearthed Florida, 40-to-1 to win it all, and a week later landed a 50-1 ducat. Those were exceptional early-April cashes after the Gators won it all.
Specific edges to games don’t come along often, so Mike’s texts were unique. Everyone on that thread participated, but I might have been the only one who had been eager to watch that game from the start.
Of course, being the Teasin’ Fool, I teased that K-State total down six points and parlayed it to other hoops overs that night, including Texas Tech-Wake Forest, Troy-USC and St. Joe’s-UNLV. All hit.
(I used projections on stats guru Ken Pomeroy’s invaluable database to determine those other overs to tease.)
Plus, I tied that K-State tease to an array of Saturday college football action. That single play helped boost profits.
Into the future
Onto futures plays, where summer investments included Illinois, which I nabbed at 60-1 and 65-1 title odds, +925 to make the Final Four. I am most bullish about the Illini and ultra-talented junior swingman Andrej Stojakovic.
I also grabbed big Final Four tickets on both Duke and UConn (+275 apiece), and took Gonzaga (35-1 title, +725 F4) and Florida (28-1, +385). Plus, I got the Aztecs (80-1, 12-1), in case they pull off the improbable, similar to 2023.
With several weeks of games, there’s enough information to take educated stabs. Teams among the nation’s top 10% in offensive and defensive efficiency, who cover the spread at least two-thirds of the time, get highlighted.
One year ago, that’s how I grabbed the
Gators.
Last Wednesday, my formula highlighted Duke and Gonzaga, tickets already in the Cuban cigar box.
The formula induced buying positions on USC (65-1), Virginia (150-1) and Saint Mary’s (200-1).
The Trojans have a dynamic guard duo in Chad Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice. Remember, I only need them to win a couple of NCAA Tournament games to create optimal hedging spots.
I also snaked Arizona, at 14-1, since 6-8 power forward Koa Peat (16.2 points per game, 6.6 rebounds per game) looks and sounds as poised as a senior.
For Mike’s sake, maybe, I also got Kansas State at 200-1.
Likely the same odds that I’ll ever watch another Wildcats hoops game.