Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 8-4. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
Its regular season is complete, but Oregon remains two wins away from securing its preferred postseason path.
The Ducks are tracking for the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff but could be in danger of losing the spot — and moving up, to the top tier — if two teams above them falter this weekend.
If No. 3 Georgia or No. 4 Texas Tech lose in the SEC or Big 12 championship games, respectively, the resulting slide down the final CFP rankings could lead to the Ducks climbing into the top four.
Which would mean a bye into the quarterfinals.
And no home game in the opening round.
And a path comparable to what the Ducks faced last season after they went ahead and won the Big Ten championship to complete a 13-0 regular season.
Perfection earned Oregon the No. 1 seed and a three-and-a-half week break before facing Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
We know how that turned out, and it’s clear the Ducks learned their lesson and made sure they didn’t win all their games again this season.
We’re joking, of course. But they are better positioned for the CFP as an 11-1 third-place finisher, with the midseason loss to Indiana, than they were last year as the undefeated Big Ten champs.
As long as they remain No. 5 when the final rankings are released Sunday morning, the Ducks will have the best possible path into the CFP semifinals:
— A home game in mid-December, with the accompanying delirium in Autzen Stadium, against the No. 12 seed, which will be either a Group of Five team or five-loss Duke (if the Blue Devils win the ACC).
— A perfect 10-day break after the opening round before facing the No. 4 seed (likely Texas Tech) at a neutral site. Instead of Oregon being rusty, as was the case last year against well-oiled Ohio State, the No. 4 seed would be dealing with the long layoff.
Beat the No. 12 seed in Eugene, handle the No. 4 seed on a neutral site, and the semifinals await.
At that point, every opponent is loaded, every game a momentous challenge.
The key for Oregon is reaching the semifinals, and that journey starts this week with the Ducks rooting for Georgia and Texas Tech to win and the status quo to dominate the top tier of the CFP standings.
The Ducks aren’t in action Saturday, but there’s plenty at stake.
To the picks …
Season record: 74-77-1 (49%)Five-star special: 7-7
(All times Pacific)
North Texas (-2.5) at TulaneKickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on ABCComment: The American championship matches ranked teams with CFP aspirations and head coaches with a foot out the door: Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is headed to Florida while North Texas’ Eric Morris is bound for Oklahoma State once their seasons are complete. Few teams are more dangerous through the air than North Texas. But the championship stage is all new for the Mean Green, whereas Tulane is making its fourth consecutive appearance. Pick: Tulane
UNLV (+4.5) at Boise StateKickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on FoxComment: The Broncos have owned the series as Mountain West rivals and beaten the Rebels in each of the past two Mountain West championship games — both by multiple touchdowns. Will this edition be any different? We expect a close game throughout and will gladly take the visitors and the points, even with brutal weather expected Friday night and Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen expected back from injury. Pick: UNLV
BYU (+12.5) vs. Texas Tech (in Arlington, Texas)Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ABCComment: The CFP selection committee isn’t the only entity with a low opinion of the Cougars. One-loss power conference teams are rarely massive underdogs in their conference championship game, but BYU’s awful showing against Texas Tech a month ago clearly left oddsmakers with the impression the Cougars are second-rate. And the betting public agrees: The line has ticked up from the original (11.5). We foresee a better showing than expected. Pick: BYU
Georgia (-2.5) vs. Alabama (in Atlanta)Kickoff: 1 p.m. on ABCComment: The stakes are higher for the Crimson Tide, which is near the CFP cut line and cannot afford a lopsided loss, than the Bulldogs, who are a lock for the playoff win or lose. Alabama won the first game, in Athens, by three points in a near-flawless performance (four penalties, no turnovers). We like the Dawgs here, but it should be competitive long enough for Alabama to secure the CFP bid. Pick: Georgia
Virginia (-3.5) vs. Duke (in Charlotte)Kickoff: 5 p.m. on ABCComment: The most interesting game of the day in that a Duke victory could lead to the ACC getting shut out of the CFP: The unranked, five-loss Blue Devils might finish behind two champions from the Group of Five (American and Sun Belt winners), thus denying the ACC one of the five automatic bids. The Cavaliers won the head-to-head by 17 points a few weeks ago and are the better team, but that makes no difference in a lawless league. Pick: Duke
Ohio State (-4.5) vs. Indiana (in Indianapolis)Kickoff: 5 p.m. on FoxComment: The undefeated No. 1 Buckeyes against the undefeated No. 2 Hoosiers in a showdown that has limited CFP stakes — both teams are guaranteed opening-round byes — but plenty of pride on the line, especially for the Hoosiers. (Their last Big Ten title: 1967.) Ohio State just won the game that matters most and could have a post-Michigan hangover. Pick: Indiana
Straight-up winners: Tulane, UNLV, Texas Tech, Georgia, Duke and Indiana
Five-star special: Duke. When in doubt, the Hotline always sides with mayhem.
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