The Miami Marlins don’t get many breakout stars, so when Kyle Stowers erupted in 2025 with 25 home runs, a .912 OPS and an All-Star selection, fans expected the front office to lock him up long-term. Stowers clearly hoped for the same outcome. According to Bob Nightengale, the 27-year-old outfielder told the organization he would “love to sign a long-term deal.”
But Miami hasn’t made him an offer, and now it’s clear why.
Reports from The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli revealed that extension conversations between the two sides already took place earlier this offseason—and they fell apart quickly. The Marlins and Stowers weren’t just far apart—they were “incredibly far apart,” with Miami shutting down talks soon after they began. That left Stowers’ future wide open and raised a question that has started to divide the fanbase: Is Stowers truly ready for a nine-figure extension, or should the Marlins slow down the hype?
Ely Sussman of Fish On First made the case for patience, arguing that Miami holds all the leverage and should not pay like Stowers has produced for multiple seasons.
One Breakout Year Doesn’t Equal $100 Million
Stowers’ camp approached negotiations using Bryan Reynolds’ $106.75 million extension as a comp. Miami countered with something closer to the Ceddanne Rafaela framework—an eight-year, $50 million deal focused on upside rather than established production. It wasn’t a negotiation as much as two parties speaking entirely different financial languages.
Sussman’s breakdown illustrates why Miami hesitated. Stowers arrived with a wildly inconsistent résumé:
- First 117 MLB games: .208/.268/.332, six home runs, -0.9 fWAR
- Most recent 117 MLB games: .288/.368/.544, 25 home runs, 4.0 fWAR
This isn’t a case of a young star steadily climbing upward—it’s the story of a player who reinvented himself under Miami’s hitting group and now has one monstrous season on his record. That’s valuable, but it’s not the same profile Reynolds had when Pittsburgh extended him. Reynolds had already delivered multiple elite years and established a stable offensive floor. Stowers doesn’t have that foundation yet.
And here’s the part no agent wants to hear: Stowers remains under team control for four more seasons, with free agency arriving at age 32. Players rarely land massive early-career extensions at that age range, especially when they have only one high-end season to show.
That timeline weighs heavily in the Marlins’ favor.
Miami Can Wait—and They Probably Should
The Marlins don’t operate with Dodgers– or Yankees-level payroll flexibility. Their decisions require caution and an understanding of risk. A long-term Stowers extension at eight or nine figures could backfire instantly if his 2026 season resembles his pre-breakout struggles.
Sussman compared Stowers to Matt Carpenter when the Cardinals gave him a six-year, $52 million deal. Carpenter was also coming off a breakout age-27 campaign, but he had a safer offensive profile and more defensive versatility. Adjust Carpenter’s contract to today’s inflation, and Sussman lands at a sensible structure: six years, $63 million, with a club option attached. Not cheap, but far from the $100 million Stowers reportedly sought.
For now, Miami has little incentive to push negotiations forward. They can wait, evaluate, and ride Stowers year-to-year and pay him through arbitration. And if he proves the breakout wasn’t a one-year spike, his value will rise—but so will the Marlins’ confidence in paying him.
Stowers wants long-term security. The Marlins want long-term certainty. Until those two desires meet in the middle, an extension isn’t happening.
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