The Las Vegas Raiders weren’t happy to lose a 23-21 game to the Houston Texans in Week 16, but it may have been the best thing for the franchise going forward. The team is currently in the race for the No. 1 pick.
The New York Giants are the only other 2-13 team in the NFL, and they play the Raiders in Week 17. Whoever loses that game will control their own destiny when it comes to the top pick.
As of now, the Raiders are favored to get the No. 1 pick, according to The Athletic’s simulator. The Giants are second at 27%. Whoever gets the No. 1 pick is going to have their pick of players, which will likely be Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite to be the first player drafted in 2026. The Raiders need a quarterback and are favored to get the top pick. That means they have the best chance of landing Mendoza of any team right now.
However, Las Vegas still has some work to do to ensure that they end up with the potential franchise-altering quarterback.
Will Raiders Actually Get the No. 1 Pick?
If the Raiders want the No. 1 pick in 2026, they need to beat the Giants in Week 17. Beating the Giants would drop them from 50% to get the top pick to 9%.
The Raiders also need to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18. If they lose to the Giants and beat the Chiefs, they only have a 35% chance of getting the top pick.
If the Raiders lose their last two games, they 100% get the No. 1 pick. No team wants to be the worst in the NFL, but it comes with major benefits. They get the top pick in every round of the draft. They also get their pick of whatever prospect they want. Right now, it looks like the player would be Mendoza, but the Raiders would have options. They could also trade down for a haul of picks. Getting the No. 1 pick gives the Raiders a chance to rebuild at a much faster rate.
No Moral Victories for Raiders
The Raiders played one of their better games of the season against the Texans. They had a chance to win up until the end.
Houston has a very good team, so it’s no small feat to keep competitive with them. However, the Raiders aren’t looking for close losses. Quarterback Geno Smith doesn’t believe in moral victories.
“All season long there’s been a lot things that I wish we could’ve done better, but what I’m really proud of is just the way that we continue to fight,” Smith said after Sunday’s loss. “The spirit of this team and the spirit of the locker room, guys are continuing to hold the rope and that’s really all you can ask of the guys. And you can continue to see where we’re getting better, but it’s still not enough.
“I’m not the guy who really harps on moral victories, but I appreciate the way these guys fought.”
Smith has the most to lose if the Raiders get the No. 1 pick, so he’s going to keep fighting.
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