The Giants have a prime opportunity to secure the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft this weekend when they head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. The two teams stand alone at the bottom of the NFL standings with identical 2-13 records, as they get set to clash in what is being dubbed locally and nationally as the “Tank Bowl.”
Even by the Giants’ low standards, which include unfortunate wins in recent “tank games” against the Commanders in 2019, the Eagles in 2023, and most recently, a failed attempt against the Colts last season, this game may be the biggest “tank watch” in franchise history.
Fortunately for tank-happy Giants fans (likely the vast majority of the fanbase at this point), Sunday’s matchup shapes up favorably for the Raiders in more ways than one, pointing towards good long-term fortunes for New York.
Multiple Key Matchups Favor The Raiders on Sunday
Even with the Raiders putting tight end Brock Bowers and safety Jeremy Chinn on injured reserve, the Giants’ own injuries point to New York walking out of Allegiant Stadium with a loss that will feel like a win.
According to The Athletic’s Dan Duggan, his strong sense is that franchise left tackle Andrew Thomas will be out for the final two games of the season due to a hamstring injury, despite being officially listed as “day-to-day.”
In addition, starting center John Michael Schmitz did not participate in practice on Wednesday. Reserve offensive lineman Evan Neal, safety Tyler Nubin, and defensive lineman D.J. Davidson also did not practice, but the key news is that two of the Giants’ five starting O-linemen will likely not play against Vegas on Sunday.
That’s bad news against a Raiders pass rush anchored by Maxx Crosby, who wants no part of tanking on Sunday. He will be ready to wreck a patchwork offensive line for Big Blue and make life hell for Jaxson Dart, just one week after the rookie was limited to 33 passing yards against Minnesota.
Yet the biggest mismatch comes on the other side of the ball. The Giants’ run defense is the worst in the NFL, averaging a league-worst 5.5 yards per rush allowed and a 31st-ranked 150.9 rushing yards allowed per game.
Against Jahmyr Gibbs, who had been struggling mightily for the Lions on the ground in recent weeks, New York gave up 219 yards on 15 carries, a mind-boggling average of 14.6 yards per carry. Gibbs also scored the eventual game-winning 69-yard touchdown in overtime.
Enter Ashton Jeanty, the first-round draft pick and Raiders running back who can exploit gaps and break through contact with ease. Chunk plays, busted tackles, and big runs are all but guaranteed, especially when Jeanty had his best game of the season against a stingy Texans defense on Sunday.
The Heisman runner-up out of Boise State rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown while adding a 60-yard reception and a receiving score against Houston. Against the Giants, he will be poised to do even more damage and clinch a 1,000-yard season (he currently has 828 rushing yards).
Why The First Overall Pick is Still So Important
Some Giants fans may be wondering why the first overall pick is still so important, especially considering Joe Schoen rectified the team’s draft-altering win over the Colts by drafting Abdul Carter at third and trading back into the first round for the next franchise quarterback in Dart.
The main reason has to do with the top pick’s trade value, which is considerably higher than even number two or three. The Bears capitalized by trading their No. 1 pick for the ninth pick in 2023, and earned an additional first-round pick, two second-round picks, and Pro Bowl receiver DJ Moore in return.
This year, quarterback-needy teams including the crosstown Jets will be itching to trade up for Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner and projected top pick in a potentially quarterback-heavy draft class. A recent blockbuster mock trade saw the Giants recouping the fifth overall pick, the 37th overall pick, a 2027 first-round pick, and a 2027 second-round pick for trading #1 to Gang Green.
The fifth overall pick was then used by New York to pair star wide receiver Malik Nabers with Ohio State phenom Carnell Tate, but could also be used to bolster the defense with a versatile playmaker such as linebacker Arvell Reese or safety Caleb Downs.
With the Giants already being set with Dart (any proposed Giants trade for Mendoza is ridiculous), at left tackle, and across the defensive line, they can trade back for a haul of picks, which can then be used to select top remaining prospects while having draft capital for the future.
If Big Blue falls to second or third, they will still have good fortunes, but may also end up selecting the same skill player even earlier or trading the pick away for less draft capital (to another quarterback-needy team interested in Dante Moore or Ty Simpson, pending their declaration to the NFL draft).
Although the stakes are not quite as high as last year, this year presents a golden opportunity for the Giants to “win” the top pick in the draft, trade it back for a stash of high draft picks, and truly accelerate their rebuild. The small cost will be yet another loss, which may be disappointing in the moment, but could greatly improve the team’s fortunes in the years to come.
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