SANTA CLARA – The Chicago Bears ruined Levi’s Stadium’s grand opening in 2014, rallying from a fourth-quarter deficit to beat the host 49ers in Week 2 of a season neither franchise enjoyed.
This season, the Bears have parlayed six fourth-quarter comebacks into serious contention for Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium on Feb. 8.
But first at that venue Sunday night comes a Bears-49ers matchup that could dictate if either snags the NFC’s No. 1 seed and easiest path to the Lombardi Trophy. Both teams sport 11-4 records entering the penultimate game of the regular season, both are eying division titles.
“It is a really good feeling to have home-field advantage,” left tackle Trent Williams said. “Everybody that was here in ’23, I know they can remember the roar of the crowd and how just the atmosphere of playoff football here is different.”
The Bears, currently the No. 2 seed behind the Seattle Seahawks, will clinch the NFC North by beating the 49ers, so long as they didn’t already secure that title via a Packers’ loss Saturday night to Baltimore.
The 49ers, currently the No. 5 seed, could seize the No. 1 seed and the NFC West if they hold serve against the Bears and then knock off Seattle (12-3) in next weekend’s regular-season finale. (The Seahawks can make that matchup moot if they lock up the No. 1 seed Sunday by absurdly combining a 49ers-Bears tie with a Seattle win at Carolina and a Los Angeles Rams’ loss or tie Monday night at Atlanta.)
Here are five keys to a 49ers victory over the Bears, who are seeking only their third division title since their 2006 team lost in the Super Bowl:
1. WIN TURNOVER BATTLE
The Bears are the NFL’s best at winning the turnover battle. Their plus-21 mark (31 takeaways, 10 turnovers) is six better than the NFL’s next team (Houston), and it’s a glaring reminder how deficient the 49ers are (16 takeaways, 20 turnovers).
Brock Purdy is coming off Monday night’s five-touchdown masterpiece, slightly tainted by a fourth-quarter interception off Kendrick Bourne’s hands. That is the lone interception off Purdy in his past 3 ½ games and 112 passes, since a three-interception fiasco before halftime of the 49ers’ Nov. 24 win over Carolina.
The Bears’ best interceptors, so to speak, are all battling health issues: Kevin Byard (six interceptions), Nahshon Wright (five), and Tremaine Edumonds (four). Wright also has three fumble recoveries and two forced fumbles; the James Logan High and Laney College product gae inspiring tributes after John Beam’s slaying last month at Laney.
Christian McCaffrey didn’t lose either of his fumbles (vs. Jacksonville and Carolina) among his NFL-leading 372 touches.
2. STAY ALERT FOR CALEB
Caleb Williams, last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, is humming along with 3,400 passing yards, 369 rushing yards and a 57.8% completion mark. He’s thrown 23 touchdown passes against six interceptions, but five of those interceptions have come on the road (with 10 touchdown passes).
Williams won’t have Rome Odunze for a fourth straight game, so the 49ers can focus their coverage on D.J. Moore (664 yards, six touchdowns) and tight end Colstand Loveland (528, four).
Williams got sacked a NFL-high 68 times last season, but he’s lowered that to 23 times this season, including 10 in the fourth quarter.
“It feels like when he starts scrambling, he gets more accurate. He is really, really dangerous when he leaves the pocket and he’s on the run,” defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said. “… He’s improved tremendously from a year ago.”
In the Bears’ 38-13 loss last December at Levi’s Stadium, Williams passed for just 134 yards, but he threw for two touchdowns with no turnovers.
3. RUN DEFENSE
The 49ers must prove that their run defense’s improvement was more than a mirage Monday at Indianapolis, where Jonathan Taylor fell out of the NFL rushing lead and gained just 46 yards on 16 carries.
The Bears boast the NFL’s second-best rushing average (152.1 per game; Buffalo is at 158.9 ypg). They’re dividing and conquering behind D’Andre Swift (993 yards, seven touchdowns, 204 carries) and seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangi (731 yards, three touchdowns, 155 carries).
Linebacker Tatum Bethune, despite aggravating an ankle injury Monday, should be OK directing the 49ers’ run defense. That push really starts up front with interior linemen Jordan Elliott, Kalia Davis, Alfred Collins and C.J. West.
The Bears favor running to their right, although it’s center Drew Dalman and left guard Joe Thuney who earned Pro Bowl honors while right tackle Darnell Wright got snubbed along with Nahshon Wright.
4. KITTLE CONUNDRUM
Tight end George Kittle attempted to play through a low-ankle sprain Monday night before getting sidelined through the fourth quarter – and possibly through this game against his childhood team after not practicing all week.
The 49ers are 10-14 without Kittle since 2017, but they went 3-2 this season after his Week 1 hamstring injury. Fellow tight ends Jake Tonges and Luke Farrell could get more run, but the 49ers also have fullback Kyle Juszczyk ready to fill some of Kittle’s multiple roles.
If Ricky Pearsall can return and push through a right-knee injury, then Purdy won’t so predictable in targeting Jauan Jennings and McCaffrey.
5. FINISH. FINISH. FINISH.
The Bears are producing fourth-quarter comebacks in historic fashion: They’re the first team to win six games after trailing in the final two minutes of regulation. Last week, they erased a 10-point deficit to the Green Bay Packers and won 22-16 in overtime to clinch their first playoff berth since 2020.
Over the past eight weeks, the Bears have scored a NFL-high 83 points in the fourth quarter and overtime.
The 49ers are 10-0 in games they’ve led at halftime, though they did rally after surrendering fourth-quarter leads in wins against Arizona (Week 3) and Los Angeles (Week 5).
On the flip side, the Bears have not allowed an opening-drive score in their past seven games and yielded just 10 opening-drive points all season, fewest in the league.