Who is favourite to win Strictly 2025? We unpack latest odds ahead of semi-final

For use in UK, Ireland or Benelux countries only BBC handout photo of judges Craig Revel Horwood, Motsi Mabuse, Shirley Ballas and Anton Du Beke during their appearance on the live show on Saturday for BBC1's Strictly Come Dancing. Picture date: Saturday November 29, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Kieron McCarron/BBC/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: Not for use more than 21 days after issue. You may use this picture without charge only for the purpose of publicising or reporting on current BBC programming, personnel or other BBC output or activity within 21 days of issue. Any use after that time MUST be cleared through BBC Picture Publicity. Please credit the image to the BBC and any named photographer or independent programme maker, as described in the caption.
A new name is waiting to be written on the Glitter Ball trophy (Picture: Kieron McCarron/BBC/PA Wire)

There are just two shows to go until Strictly Come Dancing 2025 ends and a celeb waltzes away with the Glitterball trophy.

Last week’s show saw an upset when Love Island star Amber Davies and pro-partner Nikita Kuzmin secured a place in the semi-final after beating Lewis Cope and Katya Jones in a dance off.

The pair’s shock elimination surprised fans who presumed the pair were favourites for the finale.

Lewis even admitted that being knocked out ‘hurts’, explaining on It Takes Two that it’ll take a bit of time to get over.’

Sadly, when it comes to the high-stakes world of ballroom dancing, you just can’t predict what will happen.

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Well ahead of the semi-finals on December 13, we’ve had a look at the remaining dancers’ odds on Paddy Power to see which of the stars should make some space on their shelf for the main prize.

George Clarke

Undated BBC Handout Photo from Strictly Come Dancing 2025 Pictured:George Clarke. PA Feature SHOWBIZ TV Strictly. WARNING: This picture must only be used to accompany PA Feature SHOWBIZ TV Strictly. PA Photo. Picture credit should read: BBC/Ray Burmiston. NOTE TO EDITORS: This picture must only be used to accompany PA Feature SHOWBIZ TV Strictly. WARNING: Use of this copyright image is subject to the terms of use of BBC Pictures' BBC Digital Picture Service. In particular, this image may only be published in print for editorial use during the publicity period (the weeks immediately leading up to and including the transmission week of the relevant programme or event and three review weeks following) for the purpose of publicising the programme, person or service pictured and provided the BBC and the copyright holder in the caption are credited. Any use of this image on the internet and other online communication services will require a separate prior agreement with BBC Pictures. For any other purpose whatsoe
George is number one! (Picture: BBC/Ray Burmiston)

As things stand, currently George Clarke is the favourite.

The bookie has given him 5/6 odds to win, which means George 54.5% chance of dancing his way into the history books.

Still, just because he’s the favourite, that doesn’t mean he’s won yet.

Karen Carney

For use in UK, Ireland or Benelux countries only BBC handout photo of Karen Carney during her appearance on the live show on Saturday for BBC1's Strictly Come Dancing. Picture date: Saturday November 29, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Kieron McCarron/BBC/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: Not for use more than 21 days after issue. You may use this picture without charge only for the purpose of publicising or reporting on current BBC programming, personnel or other BBC output or activity within 21 days of issue. Any use after that time MUST be cleared through BBC Picture Publicity. Please credit the image to the BBC and any named photographer or independent programme maker, as described in the caption.
Can Karen cause an upset? (Picture: Kieron McCarron/BBC/PA Wire)

Karen Carney is nipping at the heels of George’s tap shoes with 11/10 odds. That gives Karen a 47.6% chance of winning.

And while George is the favourite now, Karen did briefly overtake him on some betting sites. That may shock some, but not Metro writers.

After all, our columnist Adam Miller made a bold call after the opening night of the Strictly 2025 series, saying Karen would outperform every former footballer in the show’s history.

Balvinder Sopal

Balvinder Sopal wearing a white and grey dress, with one arm outstretched, during a performance on Strictly Come Dancing.
Balvinder has impressed viewers (Credits: Guy Levy/BBC/PA Wire)

Unfortunately, the odds aren’t in the other two dancers’ favour. Balvinder Sopal has 22/2 odds, which means she only has a 4% chance of winning.

While the likelihood of Balvinder taking home the Glitterball trophy is low, Balvinder can hold her head high when she leaves.

The EastEnders star has been in the bottom two five times this competition, and managed to survive the dance-off every time, so she’s clearly doing something right!

Amber Davies

Strictly - It Takes Two 10.12.2025 (Picture: BBC)
Amber shocked fans in last week’s show (Picture: BBC)

Finally, we get to Amber, who, despite knocking Lewis out last week, has the lowest odds of any dancer.

Paddy Power has given her 33/1 to win, which means there’s just a 2.7% chance she gets her mitts on the trophy.

Still, back in week one, would you have predicted she’d beat Lewis in a dance off? I wouldn’t, and I watch TV for a living.

So stranger things have happened on the dance floor.

Watch Strictly Come Dancing on Saturday, December 13 at 6.35pm on BBC One.

An earlier version of this article was published on December 1.

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