The much-lauded 2023 NHL draft class appears to be as good as expected.
Even beyond No. 1 pick Connor Bedard — the Blackhawks‘ centerpiece from the moment his name was called — No. 2 pick Leo Carlsson, No. 3 pick Adam Fantilli, No. 4 pick Will Smith and No. 7 pick Matvei Michkov have all experienced early individual success and positioned themselves on tracks toward stardom.
But when will each of them experience team success? So far, there hasn’t been much of that for Bedard’s Hawks, Carlsson’s Ducks, Fantilli’s Blue Jackets, Smith’s Sharks or Michkov’s Flyers.
The Jackets were a sweet surprise last year, but even they didn’t quite make the playoffs. None of the others have sniffed anything close to postseason hockey yet.
Whether any of those rebuilding clubs manage to break through their ceilings could be a quietly fascinating story to follow in 2025-26. Before the Panthers seek their third consecutive Stanley Cup, we’ll find out during the regular season if the league-wide hierarchy is finally bound for a shakeup after several years of relative stagnation.
A power imbalance between the two divisions in each conference could affect dynamics, too. Carlsson and Smith are fortunate to play in the Pacific, the West’s weaker division. Fantilli and Michkov are fortunate to play in the Metropolitan, the East’s weaker division. For Bedard and the Hawks, the view up the standings of the stacked Central is daunting.
Here are the Sun-Times’ predictions for the 2025-26 NHL season, which begins Tuesday:
CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Stars: It’s a toss-up between the Stars and Avalanche to be the preseason Central favorites, although both teams have their eyes on a much bigger prize than a regular-season division title.
The Stars have an advantage in goal — Jake Oettinger trumps Mackenzie Blackwood — and more forward depth. They also have a “crazy ex” advantage with former Avs star Mikko Rantanen, who slayed his former team with a legendary Game 7 performance last year and would love nothing more than to continue tormenting them for the next eight.
2. Avalanche: Rantanen’s flaw, however, is that doesn’t seem to be quite as good as Colorado mainstay Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon ranks third in the NHL with 367 points over the last three seasons; Rantanen ranks seventh with 297.
On the back end, Cale Makar also outshines his formidable Texan counterpart, Miro Heiskanen. With MacKinnon and Makar locked in, even with the roster around them somewhat in flux, the Avalanche surpass every Western opponent except the Oilers in star power.
3. Jets: Connor Hellebuyck’s playoff woes are anxiety-inducing in Winnipeg. But after receiving the Hart Trophy as league MVP last season — becoming the first goalie to do so since 2015 — Hellebuyck’s status as the world’s best regular-season goalie is indisputable. He has made 60-plus appearances and finished with a save percentage of .920 or better in three consecutive seasons.
The Jets’ offense looks shakier, however, with Nikolaj Ehlers having left in free agency and Kyle Connor entering the last year of his contract. It remains to be seen how much former Hawks legend Jonathan Toews will be able to contribute in his against-all-odds NHL comeback.
4. Mammoth: The newly named Mammoth are a trendy pick to push into the playoff field this season. They appear a step ahead of the West’s other rebuilding teams after winning 38 games in their Utah debut year, more than they had in any Arizona season since 2012.
Splashy trade addition JJ Peterka from Buffalo adds more juice to an already exciting forward group featuring Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley.
5. Wild: Kirill Kaprizov’s staggering eight-year, $136 million contract extension keeps the Wild’s train on the rails, but assembling a strong roster around his exorbitant $17 million salary-cap hit will be challenging in the future.
For now, the Wild are what they’ve always been: Good but not great. Their team-wide defense is stellar, and the arrival of defenseman Zeev Buium (from the 2024 draft class) is intriguing, but they haven’t proven they can score enough to keep up with the league’s best.
6. Blues: The Blues’ long-term outlook has improved considerably since this time last year, and they fancy themselves a definite playoff contender on the same tier as the Jets, Mammoth and Wild. One or two of those teams are going to get squeezed out, though.
Excellent coach Jim Montgomery is an X-factor, but the Blues have no stars to lean on — just a handful of very good players, led by forward Robert Thomas.
7. Predators: The Predators’ long-term outlook, on the other hand, has worsened considerably. Their 2024 free-agency spree backfired, leaving them with an aging, expensive and ill-fitting roster coming off an ugly 30-win season.
Juuse Saros, Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault are bounce-back candidates, and cornerstone defenseman Roman Josi is healthy again, but the Predators nonetheless lack any discernible vision or identity.
8. Blackhawks: Nobody can reasonably project the Hawks to finish anywhere but last in the division, but if several young players take off and several incoming prospects hit, it feels possible the team could outperform expectations.
Bedard’s play will be by far the biggest factor. Following 61- and 67-point seasons, an explosion into the 90-to-100 point range — combined with more reliable defense — would create a rising tide for everyone else.
PACIFIC DIVISION (playoff teams in bold)
The two-time defending conference champion Oilers, led by Connor McDavid, and the reloaded Golden Knights, beefed up with Mitch Marner, are the runaway favorites in the Pacific.
Beyond them, it’s murky. The Kings got worse this summer, the Canucks are dysfunctional and the Flames are likely to regress. That leaves a door open for the dark-horse Ducks, whose hiring of coach Joel Quenneville was ethically questionable but tactically brilliant.
1. Golden Knights
2. Oilers
3. Ducks
4. Kings
5. Canucks
6. Flames
7. Kraken
8. Sharks
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
The Hurricanes are established as one of the league’s best regular-season teams, and the Devils are on a similar track. But like in the Pacific, the rest of the Metropolitan feels wide-open.
The aging Rangers and Capitals experienced dramatically different 2024-25 seasons, but they’re the best bets to vie for the division’s third guaranteed playoff spot in 2026.
1. Hurricanes
2. Devils
3. Rangers
4. Capitals
5. Flyers
6. Blue Jackets
7. Islanders
8. Penguins
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Former Hawks forward Brandon Hagel has developed into a bona fide star in Tampa, joining Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy’s tier.
But will the Lightning be able to unseat their rival Panthers, who might struggle in the regular season without Aleksander Barkov and (for a few months) Matthew Tkachuk but have mastered the art of succeeding in the playoffs?
The Red Wings, meanwhile, are thirsting for their first playoff berth since 2016. Todd McLellan seems like the right coach to guide them there.
1. Lightning
2. Maple Leafs
3. Senators
4. Panthers
5. Red Wings
6. Canadiens
7. Sabres
8. Bruins
CONFERENCE FINALS
West: Oilers defeat Stars.
East: Lightning defeat Hurricanes.
STANLEY CUP FINAL
Oilers defeat Lightning.