LAS VEGAS — As East Texas handicapper Paul Stone mined for early college football wagering value, his attention was drawn to the prospects of TCU at North Carolina on Labor Day evening.
In fact, Bill Belichick’s first game as the Tar Heels’ coach has lured many eyeballs, and not just because it’s his collegiate debut. Belichick’s girlfriend is nearly 50 years his junior, fueling tabloid-like fodder since June.
Stone’s power ratings compelled him to bet Horned Frogs +2.5 points in Chapel Hill. Wednesday, DraftKings listed North Carolina -1.5 (59.5 total).
(With dull No. 2 pencils, he scrawls those ratings and other details in 8-by-12 Big Chief writing tablets, two pages per team.)
“That line [he bet] infers that, on a neutral field, TCU is only a 1- to 1.5-point favorite, and I just don’t think that’s the case,” Stone says. “I think TCU is a good three to four points better than North Carolina at a neutral site.
“The Horned Frogs return veteran quarterback Josh Hoover, they were 9-4 last year and they have a lot of people back. And I like their coach, Sonny Dykes.”
Hoover threw for nearly 4,000 yards in 2024. The Heels were 6-7 in the last of Mack Brown’s 35-year career. It’s fair, Stone says, to have some level of concern about Belichick’s focus.
“With his personal life, to me, it’s reasonable to anticipate that maybe he doesn’t quite have the edge he had when he was six-time world champion for the New England Patriots.”
We’ll leave the sensationalism to the National Enquirer. Stone has heard or read the following elsewhere, so he doesn’t claim authorship.
“[Some people] are not even 100% sure Bill Belichick will be the head coach of North Carolina when it plays September 1st,” Stone says. “There are still things that could happen, although it’s not spoken by administration.
“I think they have, not grave but considerable, concerns about whether, at his age and the circumstances around his personal life, he’s really focused and equipped to do the job.”
Challenges galore
Spring means commotion on normally placid Lake Jacksonville, where boats and jet skis nearly rattle the dishes inside the year-round cabin of Paul and Abby Stone.
Attempting to make typical four-figure bets, across the state line in Louisiana, has become just as agitating for Paul, who has few peers in prognosticating college pigskin.
Certain shops that do take his business only allow him a limit that’s laughable.
“Unfortunately, I’m persona non grata at just about all of them,” Stone says in his smooth Texas drawl. “Others, I don’t want to give them my information. That’s my challenge now, in Louisiana.”
What’s more, the industry seems to be
homogenizing. One book posts the spreads of a dozen Week 1 games, no totals, and others follow in lockstep, offering the same dozen games, no totals, same lines.
In recent years, a Vegas book or two has offered 50-ish Games of the Year (GOYs) by this time. Today, though, college football menus here consist of Power Four win totals, plus conference, national-title and Heisman odds.
“When you post early GOYs and Week 1 lines,” Stone says, “the people betting those are not Joe Q Public; it’ll be guys who, for the most part, will have sharp opinions, perhaps specialize in college football.
“Circa [soon] might be my best opportunity. Of the shops that come in late, you never know how much they’re using the others who have taken the punches.”
Other action
A year ago, some of Stone’s earliest investments included BYU +21 at Utah and Arkansas +21 at home against Texas. The Cougars went off as 3-point favorites and won 22-21, and 13-point-dog Arkansas lost 20-10.
As he does annually, he profited well from that early action. For the rest of his recent early picks, Stone nabbed Indiana under 8.5 wins, at -120 (or risk $120 to win $100), and Texas A&M under 8.5 (-170).
At 5.5 a year ago, the 11-2 Hoosiers nearly had that total covered by October. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, however, is now with the 49ers, and Stone highlighted the five games in which Indiana will likely be an underdog.
“I think eight wins would be a really nice season for the Hoosiers,” he says. “Last year they were plus-15 in turnovers, and I think they’ll regress to the mean there.”
Regarding the Aggies, Stone calls that -170 “heavy juice” before noting games against Notre Dame, LSU, Texas, Florida, Arkansas, Missouri and South Carolina.
“There are a lot of losable games on A&M’s schedule,” he says. “A lot of people are high on second-year head coach Mike Elko, but the Aggies lost four games straight-up last year as the betting favorite.
“So I’m not convinced that Elko is the long-term solution in College Station.”
Real-deal Lagway
I’ve taken positions with Florida due to sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway, the nation’s lone returnee who averaged double-digit yards per throw (a stat NFL scouts covet) a year ago.
He’s less than 20-1 to win the Heisman Trophy. Hoping the Gators soar if he does, however, I grabbed 45-1 and 100-1 value tickets on them to win it all. Lagway has been dinged up but is expected to be healthy for camp.
“A special talent,” Stone says. “A Texan, from outside Houston. And they closed the season so strongly.”
Florida, which won its final four games last season, gets Texas at home this season, and plays at LSU and Georgia.
“DJ has few peers at the quarterback position,” Stone says. “To bet him on the Heisman, if you’re going to be in that market, I think he’s as good a guy to pick as any. He’s a guy people have been recruiting since the eighth grade. A big-time talent, the kind of guy you can ride.”
Jimmies ’n’ Joes
I inquire how Oregon, with so many amenities provided by wealthy Shoe Dog alum Phil Knight, still hasn’t won a national football championship.
Stone always says, it isn’t about Xs and Os but Jimmies and Joes.
“At the sake of being a bit controversial, because I know people love the Ducks, I think it’s the culture,” he says. “I think some of the guys they’ve taken in through the years have gone there solely for the money, solely for the bag.
“When you have a larger proportion of those kind of guys in your program, especially when they’re your best players, your ‘leaders,’ you have to be concerned whether those guys are playing the short game or the long game.”
New contest
Stone has been eager to learn details of the Westgate’s new college football contest. I exchanged text messages Monday with SuperBook vice president of race and sports John Murray to confirm that minutiae.
It covers 14 weeks, beginning the last weekend of August, and will include all
Division-I games, Murray said. And, he added, the house will take “absolutely no rake.”
It involves seven picks, against the spread, each weekend. One entry costs $500, and contestants can partake a maximum of 10 times per week.
“Great news!” Stone says. “I’m excited. I give them proper credit. Many who love college football love to play the contests.”