When ballots are tallied Tuesday night, a handful of House and Senate seats will determine whether the imbalance of partisan power in Colorado reaches a level not seen since World War II.
Democrats, who already hold trifecta control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s office, stand one seat shy of a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate to mirror their current supermajority in the House — if Democrats in that chamber can keep the gains they made in 2022.
But Republicans also see an opportunity to claw their way out of the political wilderness. They need to flip only three seats that went blue by razor-thin margins to break the supermajority in the House.
An unfavorable Senate map and wide margins in the House mean that a full flip in party control in either chamber is all but impossible this time. But the millions of dollars being spent on the races, often by outside groups and party-aligned political committees, show an emphasis on strengthening, or breaking, the parties’ respective footholds in the Capitol.
More than $7 million in outside spending has poured into the Senate races, and about $4.5 million has flowed into House races, according to the most recent filings.
On the Senate side, the vast majority of that money has gone to three races: District 12, in El Paso County, and District 5 and District 6, both in the southwest part of the state. All those seats are currently occupied by Republicans.
“I might have been naive, but I didn’t expect (my race) to get that much attention from everybody,” said state Rep. Marc Catlin, a Montrose Republican who’s looking to move to the Senate in a race that’s drawn more than $3 million. “But it goes to show how much a two-thirds majority is worth.”
Advantage on rules, vetoes, amendments
A supermajority generally allows the governing party to do three things without relying on the minority party: Override vetoes, refer state constitutional amendments to voters and change floor rules on the fly. Less officially, it also typically results in strong majorities on committees — the first stop for all legislation in each chamber, where bills can live or die by a single vote.
Speaker Julie McCluskie, a Democrat who’s set to run for a second term as the House’s leader later this week, shrugged off the importance of her caucus maintaining its two-thirds grip on the chamber.
The size of their majority — 46 strong in the 65-seat chamber — means there’s typically been room for intraparty disagreements, without the need to shore up defections with Republican votes.
Colorado House Minority Leader Rose Pugliese, left, and Speaker Julie McCluskie address the Appropriations Committee about property tax cut legislation during a special legislative session at the Colorado State Capitol in Denver on Aug. 26, 2024. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
“I don’t know that a veto-proof majority is really that significant when you look at the diversity within the caucus,” McCluskie said. “We’ve got Democrats who show up and they vote their district, they vote their conscience. Certainly maintaining a majority matters. But what’s really important is the quality of the majority.”
Outgoing Senate President Steve Fenberg, a Boulder Democrat, likewise downplayed the importance of attaining a supermajority in that chamber.
It would probably be easier to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot through traditional signature gathering, he said, than to keep a 24-member supermajority caucus lockstep through stiff partisan opposition in the 35-seat Senate. (Senate Democrats currently have 23 seats.) Overriding a veto, particularly from a Democratic governor, Jared Polis, would likewise be naturally divisive.
“For me, it’s never been that important to get a supermajority, and it hasn’t been the goal. I think this is something that’s largely interesting for the press to write about,” Fenberg said in an interview.
Warning against Democratic overreach could also serve as a fundraising pitch for a Republican Party at the nadir of its influence in state politics, he added.
“They’re not going to get the majority, so the pitch, ‘Help keep us from the complete wilderness,’ probably isn’t the most appealing pitch to a donor,” Fenberg said.
Senate Minority Leader Paul Lundeen, a Monument Republican, says his 12-member caucus has been able to exert more influence than it could from a superminority position. He points to the successful blockade of a proposed constitutional amendment in April.
That measure, if ultimately approved by voters, would have changed the state constitution to allow the legislature to remove the statute of limitations for victims of childhood sexual abuse. He and other Republicans worried that change would have broader effects on civil law and legal certainties.
“(An effective Republican minority) is the last handle of common sense that is available in the legislative process, the political process — and Colorado Republicans are hanging onto that handle,” Lundeen said.
He and Fenberg offered similar predictions: They don’t think Republicans will fall to superminority status in the election.
Fenberg, for his part, said the Democratic majority as it stands now is artificially inflated: Sen. Kevin Priola, who is termed out from running again in his solidly red district, switched parties two years ago. That means Democrats effectively would need to flip two seats to cross the supermajority threshold.
The real test: Political viability
McCluskie, the House speaker, said it was important for Democratic candidates to win key races — not to preserve a supermajority, she argued, but to defeat what she cast as far-right views. She alluded to Republican candidate Nathan Butler, who has said he marched to the U.S. Capitol ahead of the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, riot that sought to overturn President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.
Butler is running against freshman Democratic Rep. Meghan Lukens in Steamboat Springs’ House District 26. Lukens has raised more than $180,000 to defend her seat.
Cole Buerger, the Democrat running against Catlin for the southwest Senate District 5 seat, echoed McCluskie’s pitch of ideological diversity in the party. If he wins and ends up the key to a two-thirds Senate majority, he said it would, in effect, be “a supermajority in name only.”
The majority question also becomes a pitch for his campaign: He wouldn’t need to weigh being the pivotal, partisan vote on tight issues and could focus solely on his district’s needs, he said.
Colorado state Rep. Marc Catlin, a Montrose Republican, center, makes remarks during a press conference on the House floor a day after the end of the 2024 regular legislative session at the Colorado State Capitol in Denver on May 9, 2024. The party caucuses held post-session press conferences to discuss their accomplishments during the session. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post)
Catlin, who has twice been named vice chair of the House Agriculture, Water and Natural Resources Committee — a rare honor for a member of a minority party — likewise leaned on being a voice for his district ahead of the pure partisan makeup of the chamber.
He cited his bipartisan history at the Capitol, where passing any of his bills has relied on Democratic support. But he also called it “worrisome” for the state for it to linger under one-party rule and warned that things like the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights might be at risk.
House Republicans are hoping to reverse a decade of consistent losses in the lower chamber. But even then, the goal is a toehold: The caucus aims to win three seats, allowing the GOP to break McCluskie’s supermajority and slow Democrats’ momentum.
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Dan Woog, a former Republican state representative who’s running again after losing reelection in a tight race two years ago, likened it to a football team with a 3-13 record that’s trying to inch back to an even record the following season.
“I look at it as a rebuild for Republicans,” said Woog, who’s running in House District 19 along the northern Interstate 25 corridor. “We’re not obviously expecting to come in and win a bunch of seats, but we’re hopeful. … Hopefully it means we get a little bit of momentum and hopefully it means we are speaking the right message and that we keep building on that.”
Woog’s opponent was initially Democratic state Rep. Jennifer Parenti. But Parenti announced she was dropping out in July. A Democratic vacancy committee then selected Jillaire McMillan to challenge Woog for the now-open seat. McMillan most recently helped lead the nonpartisan Mormon Women for Ethical Government.
McMillan said she will have been in the race for 89 days come Election Day. It’s exciting to be in a contest that could determine if her party maintains the scale of its control in the House, she said, and she understands the outsized focus on her race.
Still, she said she wasn’t dwelling on the partisan seat counting. Both she and Woog said their district could swing from cycle to cycle, and they would need to legislate to that reality.
“I recognize that I’m in this larger context and that there’s this big story,” McMillan said, echoing McCluskie. “… But also, I am being truthful when I say to my constituents: I will represent you even if you didn’t vote for me.”
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