By the end of the 2015 Stanley Cup playoffs, there were legitimate questions about the state of the Pittsburgh Penguins and whether or not Sidney Crosby and Co. would ever win another championship.
Since winning the Stanley Cup in 2009, the Penguins had a postseason derailed by injuries (2011), multiple years where they looked like one of the favorites but didn’t get close (2012 and 2013) and one that ended with a shocking collapse (2014).
It’s not exactly apples to apples, but a lot of that sure sounds familiar for the present-day Colorado Avalanche. Just like the Penguins in 2009, when the Avs won the Stanley Cup in 2022, it appeared a burgeoning dynasty had announced its arrival. But, just like the initial core for Crosby’s club, these Avs have not been the superpower that was promised, at least in the postseason.
While the Penguins survived a career-threatening injury to their captain and had plenty of regular-season success, there was plenty of angst about the franchise’s playoff failures. What everyone didn’t know in hindsight was that the groundwork for two more championships had already been laid.
Pittsburgh drafted Bryan Rust in 2010, Matt Murray in 2011 and Jake Guentzel in 2013. All were under-the-radar picks in the third round. And all three became critical components of a Penguins championship run when Crosby and Co. sealed their legacy with titles in 2016 and ’17.
The Avs need to find players like that in the later rounds of the draft to help extend the championship window for Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Co. The issue is Colorado’s draft record beyond the first round has left a lot to be desired.
Colorado built a championship team through the first round of the draft. The 2022 Avalanche was one of the best rosters of the salary cap era, and it was fueled by homegrown stars who were selected high in the NHL draft.
They also used a recent first-round pick (Justin Barron) and the club’s best second-round pick in years (Drew Helleson) to add the final pieces through trades — Artturi Lehkonen and Josh Manson. Textbook work from the front office, both at the draft table and the deadline, helped deliver a championship.
But winning more than one is really hard, as MacKinnon has learned both from watching his famous friend struggle for years to claim a second and now through his club’s journey.
Even a franchise oozing with homegrown star power still needs to replenish the ecosystem through the draft. Those picks can become players on cheap contracts who help the pending salary cap squeeze, or they can be trade chips to further buttress the NHL roster.
Helleson could have a long NHL career and should count as a draft success for the Avalanche if he does. But Colorado hasn’t drafted a player who has played 300 games in the NHL after the first round since 2009, when Ryan O’Reilly (second round) and Tyson Barrie (third) joined Matt Duchene (first) in the franchise’s best draft class since moving to Denver.
The three guys Colorado has selected after the first round who have played at least 175 NHL games are Will Butcher (275 games), A.J. Greer (248) and Calvin Pickard (175). Butcher didn’t sign with the Avs out of college, Greer played 37 games for Colorado before getting traded for a guy who played five times for the Avalanche (Kyle Burroughs) and Pickard appeared in 86 games before going to Vegas in the expansion draft.
Players who are drafted after the first round have long odds of making the NHL. Not every team is good at finding NHL regulars in the middle rounds of the draft. A lot of the guys taken in the late rounds who make it are late bloomers and there is obviously some luck involved for the NHL club.
But the Avs’ issues after the first round go beyond just not taking guys who can play 300 NHL games. They’ve selected a bunch of guys who didn’t even become AHL regulars. Those players never even had a chance to become interesting trade chips.
In 2016, the Avs selected guys in the second and third rounds who combined to play 13 AHL games for them. In 2017, they had a pair of fourth-round picks. One never played a full season with the Eagles. One never played a game in North America.
Justus Annunen made it to the NHL as a third-round pick in 2018 and helped the Avs land Scott Wedgewood. But fellow third-rounder Sampo Ranta is back in Europe after 16 NHL games, and the 2018 fourth-round pick is playing for someone else’s ECHL club.
One or two more good selections in that group could have helped the Avs, either in games or via trade, in the past few years. Recently, one of the issues is that Colorado has traded a lot of picks away as it chases another Stanley Cup.
That’s normal, but some of the recent middle-round picks haven’t worked out, either. Matthew Stienburg (2019) and Jean-Luc Foudy (2020) were both third-round picks and might top as fourth-line depth guys at best. Alex Beaucage (2019) is out of the organization and Andrei Buyalski (2021) is back in Russia after three years at Vermont.
There is some hope. Sean Behrens has to overcome a major knee injury and his size as a defense-first guy, but the 2021 second-round pick can still be an NHL regular.
The 2024 draft class was flush with interesting prospects, and the Avs need some hits. William Zellers had a big year in the USHL, and the Avs put him in the deal for Charlie Coyle.
Colorado has made a few good picks recently, but not nearly enough. And the Avs don’t currently have any picks in the first three rounds of the 2025 or 2026 drafts. They could add some in a trade, but the Avs also desperately need to hit on a late pick or two in the coming years as well.
The current roster will keep the contention window open for the next couple of seasons, but the Avalanche must find guys like Rust and Guentzel through the draft if they are going to continue to compete for the Stanley Cup through the end of this decade.
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