The Colorado Avalanche’s odds of winning the Stanley Cup improved Thursday night.
It’s terrible for the NHL that Aleksander Barkov, one of the best players in the world and a star for the two-time defending champions, sustained a knee injury during practice and needs surgery which will put his season in jeopardy.
The Florida Panthers announced Barkov will miss 7-9 months, which is either the entire regular season or the playoffs as well. It significantly hurts the Panthers’ chances of a three-peat, a team that is also going to miss star Matthew Tkachuk for a chunk of the season because of his own surgery.
It also reinforces how wide open the 2025-26 season feels, at least among the top contenders. The Panthers were the favorites, but only slightly because … stuff happens when a club has made three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final. The wear and tear, physically and emotionally, is hard to overcome.
Shortly after Barkov’s diagnosis was announced Friday, the Panthers slipped to the back of the top pack of contenders with FanDuel’s odds to win the Cup at 11-1, tied with rival Tampa Bay and behind five other clubs. The Avs’ odds are only slightly improved, from 10-1 to 9.5-1, but one of the great teams of the salary cap era is now in trouble.
It’s a reminder that for even the top franchises in the NHL, the best of times are often on a knife’s edge. All of the best teams — Edmonton, Dallas, Vegas, Carolina, Colorado and Florida — are all operating on a tightrope, where so many things have to go right to end the season with a parade.
Why does Colorado deserve to be in that group of contenders? What are some of the things that could go wrong? The Avs don’t need all of these things to break in their favor, but if just a few of them go wrong, it could sink their championship dreams.
Let’s go through the list.
What can go right: Gabe Landeskog is back. One of the most important players in the league was not available for three regular seasons, and having him back for a full year could do wonders for the Avs, on and off the ice.
What can go wrong: Landeskog is the first NHL player to return from knee cartilage replacement surgery. We have no idea how this works for him over weeks and months of wear and tear. Other athletes have had the procedure and returned to successful careers, but hockey (and basketball, with Lonzo Ball) is different.
Right: A full year with a settled Martin Necas, in a contract year, could be very productive. The Necas-Nathan MacKinnon combo looked lethal at times after he arrived in a trade from Carolina. He could make a run at 90-plus points.
Wrong: The phrase “in a contract year” will give some people pause, considering the guy he replaced is not here because the Avs couldn’t get a long-term deal done. There’s no guarantee they will get one hammered out with Necas, either. And if the result is the same as it was for Mikko Rantanen, that adds a lot of uncertainty to what this roster will look like in April.
Right: Speaking of potential roster changes, the Avs have something else they haven’t had in years — actual cap space. Colorado has been above the cap ceiling and using long-term injured reserve exemptions each of the past three seasons. How everything with the cap works this year is a little different because of the new CBA rules, but not needing LTIR will give the club a little more flexibility.
Wrong: What the Avs don’t have is a particularly exciting collection of prospects to trade, nor do they have any picks in the first three rounds of the 2026 NHL draft. The 2027 picks — one first and two seconds — will almost certainly be in play if Colorado wants to add an impact player ahead of the trade deadline, but winning a bidding war against another contender with better assets could be a challenge.
Right: This is the deepest group of power-play options the club has had in years. Landeskog and Brock Nelson give them two guys who can win faceoffs. Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin are two of the best net-front guys in the league. Brent Burns gives the Avs a different, shoot-first look at the top of the zone. It has best-in-the-league potential.
Wrong: This will be Dave Hakstol’s first time running a power play in the NHL. Colorado has had the pieces in place to have a top-2 or top-3 power play, but hasn’t finished higher than fifth in the MacKinnon-Cale Makar era. Finishing in the top 5-8 would be fine, but what happens in the playoffs will matter most after its demise in the Dallas series.
Right: The MacKinnon-Nelson combo at center is the best the Avs have had since Nazem Kadri was here. Nelson has drawn rave reviews from his coach and teammates during his first training camp with the club. This top-six forward group can be the best in the NHL.
Wrong: Beyond Landeskog and Necas, Valeri Nichushkin only played in 43 games last season because of multiple injuries and was unavailable for parts of the previous two postseasons. It’s a great collection of firepower … when they’re all healthy and available.
Right: Brent Burns can be better than Ryan Lindgren was last year and Sean Walker was two years ago, so the defense corps 1-6 should be the best it’s been in years.
Wrong: Righthanded Sam Malinski is going to start the season on the left side, and the Avs may need another lefty at some point before the deadline. The depth beyond the top six is also relatively unproven at the NHL level and has no Stanley Cup Playoffs experience.
Right: Mackenzie Blackwood went to San Jose and began to make good on the promise he showed early in his career in New Jersey. With a full year in Colorado, he could work his way into the group of goalies chasing Connor Hellebuyck for the Vezina Trophy. He also acquitted himself pretty well with his first NHL playoff experience last year.
Wrong: Blackwood is likely to miss the start of the year as he continues to rehab an offseason injury. He has struggled with injuries in the past. Scott Wedgewood is a solid backup, but the Avs will need the best version of Blackwood to make a deep playoff run.
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