The time for tough decisions is coming for the Colorado Avalanche.
Valeri Nichushkin is expected to return to the lineup Friday, assuming he is fully reinstated by the NHL and NHLPA from the player assistance program. Avs coach Jared Bednar intimated that Jonathan Drouin and Miles Wood, who have shed the non-contact jerseys for two days, could also be back against the Washington Capitals at Ball Arena.
That means three forwards have to come out of the lineup, and at least two players have to be removed from the active roster. The most intriguing question? Will rookies Ivan Ivan and Nikolai Kovalenko be among the players who stay?
“Yeah, I like the way both of those guys are playing,” Bednar said when asked if the pair has done enough to stick around once the forward group is healthy. “There’s some decisions to be made there, but we have to map out what our power plays look like, what our penalty kill looks like. Then we want to set up our lines. That has a big factor in who stays.”
Both rookies have appeared in all 16 games for Colorado this season, two of eight forwards to do so. Ivan has three goals and five points, while Kovalenko has two goals and six points.
They’ve both moved around the lineup. At one point, both were playing in the top six with Kovalenko on the first line and Ivan on the second line because of the injuries.
Both players have solid underlying numbers. While it was clear after a handful of games that top prospect Calum Ritchie needs more development time, Kovalenko and Ivan have looked like solid NHL players far more often than not this season.
They are fifth and sixth among the forwards with at least 50 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time in expected goals for percentage behind Ross Colton, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Logan O’Connor. The Avs have outscored opponents 6-4 when Ivan is on the ice at 5-on-5, while it’s 8-6 for the other guys when Kovalenko is out there.
“I’m feeling really good,” Ivan said. “Less nervous, more confident. Last game wasn’t the way I wanted to play, but that’s going to come with playing a lot of games. I’m feeling way more comfortable, just feeling good getting used to the schedule. It’s really tough, but it’s pretty good now.”
If Ivan and Kovalenko do stick with the Avs, it will be in different roles. Drouin and Nichushkin will join the top six with MacKinnon, Rantanen, Casey Mittelstadt and Artturi Lehkonen. Wood, O’Connor, Parker Kelly and Joel Kiviranta are all safe bets.
That leaves two lineup spots for some combination of Kovalenko, Ivan, Chris Wagner, T.J. Tynan and fellow rookie Nikita Prischepov, who has also fared well in a smaller sample size.
Kovalenko and Ivan have been regulars on the second power-play unit, but that could end with Drouin and Nichushkin back. Both players have killed penalties in the past at lower levels, but the Avs haven’t really given them a chance to try it in the NHL yet in part because they were on the power play during special teams practice.
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Bednar praised both players offensive work, though said both can be more consistent. He also praised Ivan’s defensive ability, citing elite scoring-chance suppression numbers. The Avs are allowing 17.8 scoring chances per 60 minutes when Ivan is on the ice, which is the lowest among the forwards with 50-plus minutes.
Ivan has also played center, which could be a tiebreaker in his favor if the final spot came down to him, Kovalenko or Prischepov. Kovalenko played center in the KHL, but hasn’t in Colorado.
The Avs could go with a fourth line of Ivan between Kovalenko and Kiviranta on Friday against the Capitals. They could also keep a 13th forward. Assuming everyone stays healthy, the next decision could come when Colton is ready to return from a broken foot.
“I’ve just got to do my best every day,” Ivan said. “Just work hard and make it hard for the coaching staff with the decisions. And just be ready to go in whatever role I’m going to play.”
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