All three of the Bay Area’s major airports are expecting a busy holiday travel season, but airline flight reductions have produced a murky overall picture for Oakland and San Jose.
The region’s aviation hubs have begun preparations for the 2025 holiday travel season that kicks off this weekend ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
San Jose Mineta International Airport, Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport, and San Francisco International Airport are all telling passengers to brace for packed terminals and parking lots stuffed with vehicles.
Yet while the start to the holiday travel season is expected to be busy, airport officials in Oakland and San Jose expect fewer travelers this year compared with 2024, while San Francisco airport officials anticipate more – a pattern that has emerged for the aviation hubs throughout 2025.
Decisions by airlines to reduce or increase the number of flights out of the airports are huge factors behind a rise or decline in passenger numbers, according to Brett Snyder, founder and author of the Cranky Flier airline industry site.
“Fewer airline flights for the last few months are a factor behind the reduced passenger trips at Oakland and San Jose,” Snyder said. “At San Francisco International, United Airlines just keeps getting stronger and keeps adding more service to more cities.”
San Jose anticipates that the period from Nov. 21 through Dec. 1 will produce an average of 16,300 passenger departures a day, according to Julie Jarrat, an airport spokesperson. The busiest day is expected to be Nov. 30, when 20,000 passengers are expected to depart.
Oakland projects that nearly 250,000 passengers will travel through the airport from Nov. 21 through Nov. 30, according to Kaley Skantz, a spokesperson for the airport.
San Francisco is expecting 6.3 million passengers over the holiday period from Thanksgiving to New Year’s Day, a 4% increase over the same period in 2024, according to Doug Yakel, a spokesperson for the airport.
“Based on schedule data provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation, there are approximately 14% fewer seats scheduled at Oakland Airport for the travel period compared to the same date range in 2024,” Skantz said.
It’s unknown how that might translate into actual final bookings during the holidays.
Snyder said the decision by airlines to cut back flights in the Bay Area is a crucial factor.
“At Oakland, some airlines have pulled out,” Snyder said. “Southwest has reduced its departures out of Oakland. Spirit Airlines is down about 1,000 seats a day. Delta is down almost one-third in its flights, which is about 100 seats a day.”
Over the 12 months that ended in July, the Oakland airport handled 9.72 million passengers. That was down 13.5% from the 11.23 million it handled during the one-year period that ended in July 2024. July is the most recent month of passenger trips posted on the airport’s website.
“At San Jose Airport, Southwest Airlines is down about 1,000 seats a day, which is about an 8% decrease,” Snyder said. “Spirit was big out of San Jose, but almost 1,600 seats a day are gone now. Frontier is down to almost nothing as well. Alaska Airlines is down a small amount.”
During the one-year period that ended in September, San Jose handled about 11.09 million passengers, a decrease of 6.2% from the 11.83 million passengers who traveled during the 12 months that ended in September 2024.
“The failure of Spirit to make the West Coast work has become a problem for Oakland and San Jose,” Snyder said.
San Francisco handled 51.38 million passengers during the 12 months that ended in September, up 5.6% from the 51.51 million passengers during the one-year period ending in September 2024.
“United just announced more domestic flights out of San Francisco,” Snyder said. “That means more people will go to the airline they think will provide them with a broad travel solution. SFO seems to be strengthening.”
For now, however, the three airports are focused on the immediate demands of the upcoming holidays.
Waymo is offering San Jose passengers its fully autonomous vehicles. Inside the terminals, travelers will be able to hitch rides on courtesy carts that will operate continuously between gates 17 and 31.
Officials with all three aviation hubs urged passengers to arrive at the respective airports well ahead of their flights due to the crush of passengers expected until Dec. 1, the Monday after Thanksgiving.
“Travelers are strongly encouraged to arrive at the San Francisco Airport at least two hours prior to departure for domestic flights and three hours prior to departure for international flights,” SFO officials stated in a web post.