The Bears’ road to a playoff spot is getting rockier each week, and their next stop is a visit to the defending champion Eagles on Friday. There will be no letup over the final six games, especially when it comes to the opposing defenses.
New coach Ben Johnson has dramatically flipped the Bears’ offense into one of the NFL’s best after eight consecutive seasons sitting 20th or worse in yardage and six in a row in the bottom half in scoring. With their 31-28 win over the Steelers on Sunday, vaulting themselves to 8-3, they’re eighth in the league at 26.3 points and sixth at 369.6 yards per game.
Johnson has engineered that turnaround without a major breakthrough by quarterback Caleb Williams, which the Bears still hope to see this season. He has progressed, but making a leap would change everything about their postseason prospects.
It’s an ideal moment for him to advance. Five of the Bears’ final six games are against teams that currently have a top-10 record, and even the supposed easy one of a home game against the lowly Browns could be challenging because of their pass rush.
Doubts over whether the Bears can navigate that gantlet are why the playoff simulators continue to project them to miss the playoffs. NFL Next Gen Stats and ESPN gave the Bears a 62% chance to make it Monday, while the New York Times put them at 50%. All three had them slotted eighth in the NFC.
The consensus across those three is that the 7-4 Lions, one game out of the playoffs at eighth in the NFC, will displace the Bears. The Lions beat them 52-21 in Week 2, and the teams finish the season against each other at Soldier Field in January.
If the Bears are going to beat the odds, they’ll need their offense to carry them.
Their 11 games so far have come against teams with an average rank of 23rd in points allowed. Every team they’ll face the rest of the way is in the top half of the league in that category.
All of those opponents are strong against either the run or the pass, and the Packers, whom the Bears will face Dec. 7 and 20, are excellent in both.
The Bears almost certainly will be favored in Week 15 against the 3-8 Browns, but they have allowed the second-fewest yards passing (170.7 per game) and are second in the NFL with 42 sacks, led by future Hall of Famer Myles Garrett having the best season of his career. They beat the Packers in Week 3 by sacking Jordan Love five times and holding him to an 89.2 passer rating.
The Lions, lurking in the final regular-season game, have allowed the fifth-lowest completion percentage, are No. 10 against the run and are eighth in sacks.
The 49ers are actually the weakest opposing defense on paper, though they were 7-4 heading into their game Monday night against the Panthers.
This week, the Bears will contend with an Eagles defensive line that general manager Ryan Poles cited in the offseason as something he aspired to replicate.
They’re fifth in opponent passer rating (80.3) and the toughest defense in the NFL on which to complete a pass with quarterbacks connecting on just 57.3%. They’re just 19th against the run, which opens the door for the Bears to make some headway with running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.
For all their flaws and turbulence, the Eagles are eighth in points allowed at 20.5 per game.
That’s a lot for the Bears to battle, but that’s how it should be. Playoff berths rarely come easily. The schedule set up advantageously for them to get Johnson’s offense rolling, and now it’s time to pass the next test.
