When the Bears traded out of the No. 1 pick in 2023 and, through a series of incredibly fortunate events that included help from former coach Lovie Smith, landed the top pick in 2024 instead, it was perfect timing.
Not only was it the right year for teams to look for quarterbacks in a draft class stocked with them, but they had first right of refusal to the consensus, runaway leader in Caleb Williams. He lit up the scoreboard at USC, won the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore and was not only the near-unanimous favorite in his class, but widely thought to be the best quarterback prospect in three years.
“It’s going to turn out to be a good class,” Williams said. “I’ll be competing against these guys for a long time and I’m excited about it.”
The gap between Williams and everyone else, it turned out, wasn’t quite so large. In fact, a season and a half later, he’s actually chasing three quarterbacks picked after him. It’s too early to declare a definitive winner, but it’s indisputable that he’s trailing the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, the Patriots’ Drake Maye and the Broncos’ Bo Nix.
Williams will be looking over his shoulder at the next class, too, and will go head-to-head with No. 25 pick Jaxson Dart on Sunday when the Bears host the Giants. Incidentally, Williams elbowed Dart out of USC when he transferred there in 2021. Dart will be making his seventh start and is slightly ahead of Williams in passer rating, completion percentage and touchdowns by percentage of passes, while Williams is well ahead in yardage.
It’ll be an interesting comparison for one game, but the bigger picture for Williams and the Bears, especially general manager Ryan Poles, is whether he proves to have been the right choice in his own class.
Maye, picked third, leads the NFL with a 116.9 passer rating and 74.1 completion percentage and has lifted the Patriots from 4-13 last season to 7-2. He’s second to the Bills’ Josh Allen in odds to win MVP.
Daniels, the No. 2 selection, burst onto the scene with an overwhelming rookie season. He was dominant from the jump and propelled the Commanders to the NFC championship game. He has struggled to stay healthy this season and is out with a dislocated elbow, but so far has been the best 2024 draft pick in the NFL.
Nix went 12th and proved it’s much more important where a player lands than when he is picked. He got the most accomplished head coach of the six quarterbacks in Sean Payton and has had the benefit of a top-10 defense. He quickly developed into at least a competent starter and has stacked up wins.
The Falcons’ Michael Penix (No. 8 pick) and Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy (No. 10) are still at the onset and have 10 fewer starts each.
Among the 2024 class, Williams ranks fourth in cumulative completion percentage (62.1), second in yards passing per game (218.3), third in touchdown passes (32), first in fewest interceptions (10, or 1.2% of his passes) and fourth in passer rating (89.6).
Strictly this season, Williams is third in passer rating (93.5, 17th in the NFL overall), third in completion percentage (61.5, 25th overall) second in yardage (239.5, 13th overall), second in touchdown passes (12, 18th overall) and second in fewest interceptions by percentage (1.6, 10th).
Williams lost to McCarthy in the opener and beat Daniels last month and so far is 1-3 in games against quarterbacks from his class. He’ll get a rematch with McCarthy in Minneapolis next week.
Williams is friends with Maye and raved recently about him “playing on time” as he leaped to the top of the class this season, but doesn’t get caught up in comparing himself to his fellow first-rounders.
“It’s just situations, different coaches, different development,” Williams said. “We’re different players with different playing styles… so you start trying to compare stats and stuff and you lose sight of where you’re at and what you need to grow at. I’m happy for all the guys in the draft class, but no comparison.”
That’s the right approach as he focuses on his development under new coach Ben Johnson, but the rest of the NFL will be comparing those six quarterbacks for as long as they’re in the league.
Nix, Daniels and McCarthy benefitted from being drafted by teams with great coaches, while Maye and Williams walked into chaos and incompetence. When Williams says “different coaches,” it’s a quiet way of pointing out how poorly guided he was by former Bears coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
It shouldn’t be overlooked what a disaster that was, but that excuse has an expiration date, and Williams has reached it. Maye was in a bad spot with Jerrod Mayo and Alex Van Pelt, too, and overcame it.
Williams is at the halfway mark of his season with Johnson, and the two now have been working together to some extent for nine months. It’s time to show results. If they do, it’ll make all the difference as the Bears try to push through a strenuous second-half schedule to make the playoffs.
His comment on not comparing himself was incisive. He doesn’t necessarily need to be the decisive best quarterback from his class; he just needs to be great. He needs to be a franchise quarterback. That’d be enough for the Bears. And if Williams rises to where it appears Daniels, Maye and Nix are headed, watching them battle each other for the next decade or more will be riveting.