In a season full of self-sabotage by the Bears, they’re mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with four games left and already looking at next season.
Next season, and their future at large, hinges predominantly on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. The better he plays over the final four games, starting Monday at the Vikings, the more attractive this coaching vacancy will be and the brighter the Bears’ outlook will appear.
His rookie season to this point hasn’t lived up to what anyone, including Williams, expected. He hasn’t come close to his goal of exceeding Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud’s tremendous 2023 rookie season, and he has been outplayed by Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels, who was drafted second by the Commanders after Williams went No. 1.
Williams has filled both sides of the ledger in his first 13 games. There have been flashes of potential as he has put together the best rookie season ever by a Bears quarterback, but that’s a low bar to clear in competition with Justin Fields, Mitch Trubisky and other disappointments.
There also have been quite a few concerns, and some early-season frustrations have resurfaced. Williams now has four games left to make the case that he’s truly on the right track.
Last week was far from reassuring.
While Williams had an efficient 116.9 passer rating and 73.9 completion percentage against a struggling and battered 49ers team, he needs to be much more productive and more of a catalyst. The Bears were lifeless in the first half, trailing 24-0 and totaling just four net yards on offense. Anything that happened after that was inconsequential in their 38-13 loss.
Williams was 6-for-9 for 27 yards at halftime and finished with just 134 yards passing. The Bears were unsatisfied with that kind of output from Fields, and it’s not viable now, either. Williams can’t control the fact that the Bears’ defense is falling apart, but he must put up more of a fight.
There were signs of regression, too.
Williams took seven sacks, pushing his NFL-worst total to 56, and while the faulty offensive line is part of the problem, so is Williams’ propensity to hold the ball too long.
Williams also has set an NFL rookie record with 255 consecutive passes without an interception, but that’s not a streak worth preserving if it means he’s overly conservative. He completed just three passes against the 49ers on which he threw 10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage.
The Bears need him to be the engine of their offense and put some fear into opposing secondaries the way the league’s best do.
Williams’ last game against the Vikings, three weeks ago, was a better example of what everyone wants to see.
He got the Bears out to an early lead. He deciphered defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ blitzes. He put up 340 yards passing and was dangerous as a rusher, too, with 33 yards on six carries. He played cleanly without being overly careful, throwing 20-plus yards downfield eight times and completing three passes of 30 or more yards. The offense scored 27 points, its most against any good defense this season.
That performance indicated progress, and Williams needs to stack up some more like it.
His highly anticipated rookie season could only be described as a mixed bag. His 87.8 passer rating and 211.2 yards per game are better than any season by Fields, but both numbers still trailed Daniels and No. 12 pick Bo Nix among rookies going into Week 15.
That’s hardly “creating history,” as he aspired to when he talked before the draft about trying to steer the Bears out of their long-running misery. They’re still in it. Williams can use these next four games to provide some hope that he eventually can lift them to something better.